This is a great example of ignoring the facts.
There are 2 million pre-orders for the Cybertruck, so your personal opinion or “understanding” of the US market doesn’t matter at all.
2 million = two million
It is the most for any car model in the world.
Yet people still try to categorize it as a niche product.
It’s like trying to fit a round peg into a square hole.
Weren’t those pre-orders made when the car’s price was promised to be $40,000 and the range 800km? Now the price has doubled and the range has been halved.
https://x.com/teslaconomics/status/1731518978219245727?s=61&t=X-lz7indDxrJ05nbWLIJdA
I don’t know what kind of reception it would get if it were something other than a ”niche product” 
A lot of water will flow under the bridge before that happens… The EU’s approval process alone, when it involves modifying vehicle categories, is multi-stage and there will be plenty of consultation rounds.
For me, the most interesting thing about Tesla is the production innovations and first principles thinking in how a pile of elements is turned into an electric car and how established ways of doing things are questioned. This involves, for example, simplification and reducing the number of separate components, gigacasting, vertical integration, etc. Traditional automakers still seem to be completely clueless regarding these matters. Tesla could have the potential to produce more affordable electric cars (“Model 2”) very cost-competitively and at a large scale.
Regarding FSD (and other robotaxis), I am skeptical, but I don’t believe the investment case requires its success if they succeed well enough in other areas.
They were made with these prices and specs.
You won’t find a 40k and 800 km variant there.
But I would like to know the answer from you and other bears: at what price would you want the company to sell a product that can only be manufactured in limited quantities for now, and for which demand is through the roof?
In my opinion, that’s when you should take the money, since it’s on the table.
How about you also accept things as they simply are at the moment and in the light of current information?
FSD development has required a vehicle fleet and drivers to collect data in order to gradually reach an end-to-end solution. This wouldn’t have been possible in any other way than the implemented method of collecting data and building the model incrementally.
Now the end-to-end model is ready, more data is being collected every day than the day before, and it’s the same story with computing power.
Is there reason now to be even more pessimistic because some promise was broken, or more optimistic because the situation is better than ever and the solution is approaching?
That’s exactly what I’m doing. I believe I’m just looking at the matter a bit more broadly and not just through Tesla’s latest investor presentation. And even if we both looked at the exact same materials, we could draw different conclusions from them and both be equally wrong. The future is difficult to predict, even though some are very certain about what will happen.
The development of FSD has required a fleet of cars and drivers to collect data in order to gradually reach an end-to-end solution. This would not have been possible in any other way than the implemented method of collecting data and building the model incrementally.
The architecture of the entire system changed recently when it was realized that the original approach wouldn’t lead to completion. It’s possible that the current approach won’t lead to completion either, or maybe it will. Again, you won’t know that until the system is actually finished.
Is there now reason to be more pessimistic because some promise has been broken, or more optimistic because the situation is better than ever and the solution is approaching?
This shows that the company previously lacked the capability to realistically analyze the system’s readiness. At least I am more skeptical of new promises after this, until evidence is put on the table that lessons have been learned from previous mistakes.
If the CT is ever even brought for sale in the EU, it will be classified as a light truck because its weight exceeds the 3,500 kg limit. In this case, the required driving license category would be C1, or C1E with a trailer; this already significantly reduces interest in the EU, even for those who might have made a pre-order at some point. Additionally, there would be an 80 km/h maximum speed and a mandatory speed limiter. For these reasons, these large American pickups haven’t really been seen much on this continent before. Note also that the UK and, for example, Norway follow the same classifications.
Because of this, it is a complete niche product in Europe.
Hi. Pre-orders are a bit different from final deals. It’s worth keeping that in mind.
Pickup trucks have never been popular in Europe, and I don’t see the Cybertruck as having been designed with the European market in mind, let alone that it would change the market. A few will be imported here, but it won’t be a mass-market product like in America.
Instead, the sub-$25k car in the pipeline will be a product specifically aimed at the European market, and it will be sold in high volumes in Europe, unlike in America. This is supported by the fact that production takes place at the Berlin factory.
Well, if car sales were only about moving from point A to point B, Toyota would already have a 90% market share and no one would pay more for a car than the price of a Yaris. Car development would have ended a long time ago.
Now, however, the Cybertruck is a concept that introduces a lot of new technology to motoring while simultaneously departing from the 70-year-old design model for pickup trucks. Many (non-boomers) are excited about these. These concepts will also be brought to other Teslas in the future and likely to other electric vehicles as well. Here it is in short:
48V. Saves a lot of copper in the world and avoids the need for more uncertain copper mines (such as OROCO). Costs also come down, as Tesla simultaneously has a modular wiring harness system.
Steer-by-wire. When 48V is available, it is possible to build such systems into electric cars.
4680 gen 2. CT will use a lot of these cells and the manufacturing scale will improve. There will be fierce competition in batteries in the future and prices will drop.
Range extender. If this becomes a working concept, battery swap/expansion solutions will become part of Tesla’s products and electric motoring more broadly in the future.
In my opinion, this is good development regardless of the stage, even if boomers stay at the Toyota dealership waiting for something new.
Hello
That’s true, but since the actual sales are only just beginning now, there’s nothing to support these “niche” claims yet either.
Let’s see the car in question presented first. In that price range, competition is stiff anyway and margins are thin. Several models are already coming from European manufacturers in that price bracket, and I’m sure others from the Far East will join in as well. Tesla will be just one car manufacturer among many, and not even among the premium manufacturers.
If two million cars have been pre-ordered, and even if only a third were to materialize, that’s nearly three years of production sold. Add new reservations to this, and sales shouldn’t exactly tank anytime soon.
Ifs and buts, time will tell.
So, nearly all the world’s technology companies invest in AI by buying NVIDIA chips, and a much smaller portion AMD chips. Then there are the few developing their own chips (Tesla, Google, the Chinese) while AT THE SAME TIME buying massive amounts of Nvidia chips. As a reference, Google already appears to be hopelessly behind Nvidia in AI chips. I consider it very unlikely that Tesla will compete with Nvidia in AI chips in the long run either. Therefore, investing in AI in Tesla’s case will certainly manifest as orders for Nvidia and perhaps as profitable AI applications (such as FSD).
And I don’t believe FSD will make money for decades for reasons related to human psychology. This applies to all robotaxis.
Why wouldn’t it? This would be the easiest Tesla to manufacture. Tesla is probably already the EV manufacturer with the best margins. Furthermore, new manufacturing methods will lower production costs even further. Among European manufacturers, the only one with a car priced around that level for sale is Citroën. VW has announced they will make a car at a similar price point to the Polo, but recent events at the company make this highly uncertain. Asian manufacturers don’t seem to have cars at this price point in Europe.
You don’t have to believe it, but money has been made with FSD for years already. I expect the pace to accelerate before the software is “finished”.
It could certainly come, but it hasn’t been introduced yet. Germany might not even be the most cost-effective place to manufacture it. Stellantis has been strong in small cars in Europe and will likely continue to be so in the future. VW is bringing something even more affordable below the ID 2: