If I believe that the number of electric cars and smart cars will increase significantly in the coming years, where should I invest? Are there also good ETF products available?
Among car manufacturers, Toyota will likely be strong, but by the mid-2020s, we’ll be wiser.
One option could be to invest in the early part of the value chain, specifically in the raw material for batteries (lithium), which is needed in many other applications besides cars. This is where Finnish glass comes into play, and I personally hope Keliber becomes a publicly traded company. At least their DFS seemed promising… Perhaps too promising for them to go public…? 
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Why Toyota? I thought German car manufacturers were even ahead of Tesla in self-driving car technology. I’m not sure about that, though.
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The Japanese have invested quite a lot in technology and services, e.g.
Toyota just put another 3 billion into AI:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobile/Toyota-creates-AI-unit-headed-by-ex-Google-robotics-specialist2
Invested in big data:
https://stocks.finance.yahoo.co.jp/stocks/detail/?code=3906.t (cooperation apparently tripled the stock price)
Bought Grab:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyota-grab/toyota-captures-data-goldmine-in-1-billion-grab-bet-idUSKBN1JG0VX
Nissan and DeNA developed a taxi service:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nissan-selfdriving/easy-ride-trial-to-mark-nissans-first-stop-on-road-to-taxi-services-idUSKCN1G70BP
- Honda, Softbank, and Chinese Baidu are jointly developing their own self-driving car / service
- Toyota and Panasonic are developing battery technology themselves and researching solid-state batteries
- etc.
My own feeling is that Tesla caught others with their pants down regarding electric cars, but self-driving cars are still in their early stages. I don’t believe that big car manufacturers will stand by and watch others pass them by a second time; instead, they will develop their own technology and services, etc.
Toyota’s operating profit was likely higher than Tesla’s revenue; they certainly have money to invest.
If only one could pick out those small companies (like Albert) or those that will win the PaaS/SaaS competition… I can’t do it myself, so I’ll leave this field to the smarter ones 
DeNA P/E 13, and at the same time, it would mean investing in games. But it seems a Finn can’t buy it… Softbank 19.
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Good points. What do you think about Qt, which is listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange? Could it be one of those small software companies that large car manufacturers would buy out? As I understand it, most car manufacturers already use Qt’s software in their cars, at least Daimler. What other software companies would there be?
I have a somewhat biased view of Qt, because its license is so expensive that it drives away small businesses and hobbyists How does Qt get talent if hobbyists go and do something else? Why can’t Qt have a license for small companies? For example, a license that doesn’t require payment for turnover under 100k.
But Qt definitely has a clear competitive advantage in embedded / low-power devices; at least I can’t think of any competitors of the same size. In principle, some larger entity could be interested in Qt, yes.
The biggest risk, in my opinion, is that some free, open-source competitor will enter the market.
Software companies are a bit tricky, because a large portion are unlisted, or they are on some exotic stock exchange that is inaccessible. And it’s impossible to follow startup scenes frequently enough.
Does anyone have a good pick from robotics? If self-driving cars are the future, then refueling will probably also be automatic. ABB, Kuka Robotics (Germany)…?
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That’s a good point about refueling. Electric vehicle charging is, as I understand it, its own industry. In Finland, there’s a company called Virta https://www.virta.global/ that’s pretty strong in the field. I hope it would list, so I could subscribe Are there even other companies in Finland that make EV charging stations?
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Is anyone following the big German manufacturers (Daimler, VW, BMW) etc.? At least seemingly interesting valuations available… surely for a reason.
Are we currently at the bottom of some kind of cycle? Can it be said that there are cycles in car manufacturing, like for example in telecommunication networks with 4G/5G?
Edit: VW invests 44 billion in future vehicles
VW:
Daimler:
At the bottom of the cycle with really low valuation multiples?
It’s more accurate to say we’re at the peak of the cycle. There aren’t cycles comparable to those in the network industry, of course, because consumer demand drives it. So, cycles are purely driven by economic cycles. In the network industry, cycles are formed more by the availability of technically better solutions. The closest equivalent in the automotive sector is the cyclicality of a car model’s sales: demand for an old model wanes, and usually only the next model brings demand to a new level. Since there are many model series and even a new car doesn’t bring much technical advancement, the impact on car manufacturers is quite small in the end.
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Heh heh, how I’m sweating following Tesla’s share price (today +17%). A couple of times I’ve been a click away from shorting it, but luckily, a seat in the stands with popcorn has so far been a pleasantly stress-free spot.
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This decade will be remembered in history as the explosive growth of electric oddities.
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This is what will happen, and many other big consequences will occur. Below is a good video on the topic. The video is quite long, but not boring. This is also one reason for Tesla’s incredible stock surge in recent days.
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Looks like an interesting case. Wonder where I could get my hands on this, as it didn’t seem to be available on Nordnet.
When an electric car can be charged as fast as a combustion engine car’s tank can be filled, a turning point will occur.
VW has a good vibe going on with electric cars anyway. If you look ten years ahead, the stock could be a good investment. Did the stock rise just from that news last week? There seems to have been a big rise.
TuSimple (TSP) started on Nasdaq. Apparently it’s not an electric truck but a fully self-driving one. Production tests in the USA from coast to coast will begin in 2023, and production in 2024.
VW has invested in TuSimple.
TuSimple uses Aeva’s LiDARs, and VW is an Aeva partner.
VW has also invested in Argo.ai, which produces autonomous driving platforms for both VW and Ford.
Argo.ai is apparently listing later this year.
VW is a significant player in the future, and they are probably currently planning their long-term strategy and future models together with their partner network, the entirety of which would be interesting to outline. Apparently, it includes at least the players mentioned above.
VW also has some kind of cooperation with Mobileye. However, Mobileye is a market leader in ADAS (Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems) and a technological pioneer in autonomous vehicle platforms currently in production, so almost all car manufacturers are partners with it.
Edit: Ark Investment has bought TSP. This would probably also affect TSP’s partners, such as Aeva.
Hmm… Megatrend? With this message, I’m bringing this 1.5-year-old dormant thread back to life.
But, seriously, and I couldn’t find a better thread…
Rowan predicts that electric car prices will fall to the level of internal combustion engine cars by 2025, which is less than three years away.
When asked, Rowan states that the price of minerals used in batteries will decrease significantly in the near future, and that, for example, the price of lithium used in battery packs is currently artificially high. Of course, normal technological development will also bring prices down.
Having seen all sorts of disruptions, I don’t doubt Volvo’s CEO’s words. The change is already visible in everyday life. For those who mainly drive in cities, there is hardly any point in buying an internal combustion engine car even now. In rural areas, the situation is still different due to long distances and poor charging infrastructure.
Renault CEO De Meo doubtful on EV and ICE price parity | Automotive News Europe (autonews.com)
PARIS – Renault Group CEO Luca de Meo does not see price parity between electric cars and combustion engine models coming anytime soon.
I, for one, expect even more and better hybrid powertrains from Volvo:
Renault, Geely clinch deal for internal-combustion joint venture | Reuters
One manufacturer whose model range will feature these powertrains is indeed Volvo.
Well, what exactly does “getting close” mean? Volvo’s CEO talked about 2025. Does Renault’s CEO consider 2025 “close”? 2025 isn’t exactly around the corner.
In any case, there’s a raw material price spike in the market that can’t continue forever and is driving up prices. My guess is that the surge of electric cars will surprise everyone. Having recently visited dealerships myself, the message from car dealers is clear: demand is high (and unfortunately, delivery times are still long).