This thread is a continuation of the comment: Tesla - johtava tulevaisuuden autovalmistaja? (Osa 1) - #10914 käyttäjältä cicada - Osakkeet - Inderes forum.
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Here is a virtual factory tour of the Austin factory organized by “industrial spy” Joe Tegtmeyer for all of us who couldn’t make it to the CT delivery event in person.
A good look at the Cybertruck final assembly.
The most interesting parts were the assembly sequence, the attachment of the outer panels, the large sub-assemblies, and the high degree of automation.
Quite an impressive-looking ”vapor-promisware” facility.
There was a lot of stuff in the pipeline nearing completion.
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https://twitter.com/Adam_and_EVs/status/1731372598221738490?t=Wtd4-reF3Wp6YuCwWqvg-g&s=19
Comparison of BYD and Tesla results.
“Good article on byd $BYDDF
BYD saw its net profit GROW by 82% year over year during the most recent quarter, as profits soared to $1.5 billion. Tesla, saw its net profit DECLINE by 44% year over year, with net profit hitting $1.9 billion for the period.”
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How do you know that BYD didn’t make its entire profit from hybrids or HSL electric buses?
Comparing apples and potatoes doesn’t make you much wiser.
That Adam guy is at least honest about his investing skills, so it’s worth following him with caution.
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Never mind BYD, but Tesla’s hockey stick is upside down.
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It doesn’t really matter. They generate real money from those hybrids, too. Another significant point is that hybrids and plug-in hybrids are not “has-been” products.
It just underscores Tesla’s weakness as an automaker, having only one powertrain in their repertoire.
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What about the Tesla SEMI trucks? Are there any plans for the Nordics yet, or is it all still far in the future? A friend of mine said that the battery performance and range are poor, for example.
According to that news article at least, it’s quite a fiasco. I must say it’s very strange that you can’t even open the windows in that rig.
In cold weather, the efficiency is comparable to diesel; for that reason (too), I doubt that at least the current version will see widespread use. Maybe for some goods delivery etc. But Volvo and Scania certainly have a better handle on what is practical and what is not. E.g., opening windows. Weight seems to be one of the biggest challenges with those machines at this stage, in addition to the range.
Having followed many discussions, the price of high-power charging can also be a deal-breaker; in some places, it’s still very pricey even today. In practice, even at its cheapest, it’s roughly the same price as diesel; when you add more frequent stops and slower “refueling,” there are no advantages compared to diesel.
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This should pretty much burst the overblown expectations regarding FSD. It’s not a moat.
https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1731468824518578559?t=qZZabDXm2fbzdXlBNiPabw&s=19
In short: Musk himself uses “Supervised Full Self-Driving”. As Troy also points out, a fully autonomous Tesla is still years away.
That’s just the way it is.
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If Elon says how safe FSD is currently with a human behind the wheel, how can you draw the conclusion from that that autonomy is years away?
There is no data available where a human is not behind the wheel.
In my opinion, there was nothing else in that interview related to the autonomy timeline other than the final words ”definitely not” when the interviewer asked if it would take 5-10 years.
Quite an interesting interpretation. It’s as if there is some compelling need to come up with something negative.
What does this even mean? Have you had excessive expectations or has someone else? What are they?
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@PutMoneyToMakeMoney I can’t be bothered to argue with you, because it’s a waste of time. FSD’s impact on Tesla’s stock will be 0 dollars because it doesn’t work as promised in 2016. The entire investment case is built on self-driving cars.
1.8 million cars sold and a 600+ billion market cap won’t go hand in hand for much longer…
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In the EU, the Cybertruck is classified in the light truck category because its gross vehicle weight exceeds the 3,500 kg limit. Pros: there is no car tax in Finland, no Euro NCAP tests, and cheap annual vehicle taxes and insurance. Cons: it requires a C1 license to drive, and the speed is restricted by an 80 km/h limiter (in practice, it cuts out at about 95 km/h if you drive against the limiter). The limiter can be bypassed, but if you get caught, it becomes very expensive.
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I actually do accept sensible arguments for things.
Maybe you should put in a bit of effort if you’re going to bother throwing around all sorts of opinions here.
This claim, for example, is completely absurd because FSD is already a software product currently being sold.
We probably all agree on this here, but you should know that market value isn’t based on the present, but on the future.
@everlaastia It seems to be the case with you, as with all others who are bearish on principle, that when justifications for claims can’t be found, the conversation just ends.
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You justify what future drivers will keep Tesla’s market value high.
I can provide a list of those that will NOT:
- FSD. Doesn’t work as promised. It will not be a significant source of revenue.
- Cybertruck is a niche product.
- Margins are worse than average.
- Sales growth has been slowing for a long time. It will take at least a couple of years to even catch up to BMW, if ever. (Mcap 60 billion euros, better margins than Tesla…)
- Energy storage solutions are not a big business yet, and you can only attribute a value of a few billion to it. If even that.
On what basis is this company worth 600 billion?
Bulls drone on about FSD, Dojo, and other non-existent things but don’t focus on concrete matters. You can’t explain everything with a narrative, even though it has a huge significance in investing.
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Or maybe the justifications are there, but when you state them, the Tesla believers defend them in all sorts of ways.
I personally didn’t even feel like commenting or replying to anything anymore.
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Maybe it’s about time you also familiarized yourself with the comprehensive material produced for investors by the company itself.
You’ll find the answer in the presentation. We bulls aren’t just making things up here; we trust the goals stated by the company, all within the limits of our own understanding and risk tolerance.
If you disagree with something in the Investor Day presentation, feel free to share.
https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/Investor-Day-2023-Keynote
Here it is in video format.
The bear camp just lives in its own reality and ignores facts time and time again. And that’s fine if it helps you sleep at night.
There are risks in the company’s goals and not everything will be realized, at least not on time, but this applies to almost all growth companies.
For me personally, for example, what happened with FSD in 2016 has no significance.
@everlaastia And one important question is how long everyone’s personal investment horizon is. Mine is 10+ years and I don’t necessarily intend to sell the shares even then.
On what time horizon are you evaluating Tesla as an investment?
Let’s put the answers to these at the end
Not yet, and it will definitely be a significant source of income. This also depends on the time window. In 5 years, it certainly will be. Is that too late? No.
A niche product doesn’t get 2 million pre-orders.
On which products?
Before the Next Gen platform products, there won’t be significant volume growth, but after that, a new growth phase.
Well, maybe this will pass for a few more quarters, but the targets are significant.
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At some point, there were rumors that the weight limit for vehicles drivable with a B license would be increased. I haven’t had time to dig deeper into whether there has been any progress and what the practical implications would be, e.g., in the case of the Cybertruck.
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Practically all tech companies in the world are currently investing massive sums in computing capacity and AI development. Don’t you consider those investments to be concrete either? You’re completely lost if you don’t take these into account when making investment decisions.
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Without taking a stand otherwise, a lot of water will flow under the bridge before the Cybertruck has sold two million cars… a year or two won’t be enough, and even five years seems quite optimistic. I don’t really see any use for it. I am somewhat familiar with the US market and the “American mindset”… it doesn’t really fit as a “grill wagon” for moto-events etc.
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I guess that is the point: the goals communicated by the majority owner have often proven to be completely unrealistic. Although, of course, a lot has also been achieved.
Well, the same thing has happened every year since then; FSD has been just around the corner and “will be ready within the next year”. But in any case, if previous broken promises don’t matter, then go right ahead and trust the latest goals.
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