For about the last year, various indicators of valuation levels have been drawn, showing “we’re approaching the peaks of the IT bubble,” and more recently, these have increasingly started to be in the form of “we’ve now surpassed IT bubble levels.”
For about the last year, I’ve personally operated with the attitude that I don’t really worry about index peaks and a turn to a bear market until IT bubble levels are exceeded, and significantly so. I would say that we’ve been awash in such liquidity in such an interest rate environment that it was very likely that all historical valuation records would now be broken (I would have even been a little “disappointed” if we hadn’t reached this point 
).
Now that those IT bubble levels are starting to be behind us, I need to start sniffing out where the market is going with a bit more sensitive antennae. I think that the so-called last parabolic leg upwards is yet to be seen, and I would be, for example, very surprised if the SP500 didn’t break the magical 5000pts mark in this cycle (If the steady, deadly climb that started last September continues, this will happen already in January, by the way).
This is perhaps more of a gut feeling. One good contra-indicator might be that when yhä_musa_soi and company stop warning about valuation levels and state that it’s now the “new economy,” that’s when one should, at the latest, jump off the ride 