SSH Communications Security as an investment target

So is this now the reason for this couple of days’ cramp in the share price? It is certainly easy to agree with the views that this company’s place might not be on the stock exchange.

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Probably Vesa Puttonen’s purchases had an effect too? Came along with almost 50k shares.

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Here are Ronin’s comments on SSH’s new CEO :slight_smile:

SSH announced on Thursday that it has appointed Lars Bell as the company’s new CEO, starting October 1, 2026. Bell’s commercial background in cybersecurity and identity management software fits SSH’s needs very well, in our view, as the company strives to accelerate its growth. Current CEO Rami Raulas’s retirement was already known, so the appointment of a new CEO was an expected step, in our opinion.

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One of the world’s largest banks chose SSH Communications Security’s PrivX solution to implement Zero Trust and Zero Standing Access Yksi maailman suurimmista pankeista valitsi SSH Communications Securityn PrivX-ratkaisun Zero Trustin ja Zero Standing Accessin toteuttamiseksi | Kauppalehti

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Here are Roni’s comments on this recent contract secured by SSH :slight_smile:

SSH announced on Monday that it has signed a three-year contract worth an estimated nearly EUR 3 million for its PrivX solution with one of the world’s largest banks. The order is significant on the company’s scale, and the annual revenue of EUR 1 million adds a good 4% to its top line. In addition, we believe this major deal has positive reference value. Nevertheless, a +19% increase and a EUR 35 million rise in the company’s market capitalization in relation to a EUR 3 million deal was, in our view, exaggerated. Our forecasts already project strong growth in order intake for the coming years, meaning the announced deal will cause at most minor positive adjustments to our forecasts.

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Roni has written a new company report on SSH :)\n\n> We made small upward revisions to our forecasts for SSH following the company’s announcement of a significant order. Nevertheless, driven by the positive news flow, we believe the valuation (2026e EV/S 5.6x) has gotten ahead of itself. Following the forecast revisions, we are raising our target price to EUR 2.0 (previously EUR 1.9), but lowering our recommendation to Sell (previously Reduce).\n\nSSH: Hyvät uutiset, liian kova hinta - Inderes

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Today was Redeye’s Cyber Security Day, where Rami naturally represented SSH:

Redeye Theme: Cyber Security - Redeye

A good, concise presentation with a couple of takeaways.

Around 1:20, when talking about post-quantum cryptography algorithms (PQC), Rami showed the audience a box, a version of which will potentially be found in helicopters, next-generation fighter jets, tanks, and satellites.

A little later, regarding PrivX, he presented the massive Italian state cloud project (PSN) in which SSH is involved in securing critical data.

I don’t recall seeing these before, so this is new evidence that Leo is truly starting to deliver.

Now, just get the new men on stage (CEO, CFO) and turn up the heat so they can repeat their performance in growing the company. It’s good that Rami will continue as a sparring partner at least until the beginning of the year.

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Allow me to chime in here. That box is SSH’s Network Encryptor NQX, which uses third-party hardware as the physical equipment. And indeed, the integration of SSH’s products into, among other things, new-generation fighter jets is a project that has been known since the beginning of the Leonardo partnership. However, it is a long-term undertaking.

The deals made with Italy’s national cloud provider, PSN, were reviewed by the company in its Q2 webcast and were also mentioned in the report. These were also discussed in our Q2 interview. The sales should start reflecting in the numbers in H2.

Interesting times indeed with the management change. The new CEO officially starts at the beginning of October, so I expect we’ll get him on the next CEO interview already. And agreed, it’s good that Rami will continue as an advisor for a bit longer after the transition.

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Good thing you’re speaking up and correcting misconceptions. I had to listen to that latest interview again, and sure enough, PSN was mentioned there as well. It just hadn’t stuck in my head, but now, after the refresher, that session left an even more positive impression than before. During the rest of the year, we can expect clear progress in Asia and the US as well.

Well, progress has been a somewhat semantic-abstract concept for this company, considering we’ve been waiting for about 25 years for the opening of what could potentially be billion-market potentials, phrased in all sorts of ways by multiple CEOs.

Personally, I haven’t been very convinced that SSH’s quantum-secure encryptions would actually be widely adopted in these various land/sea/air/space gadgets, but little by little, I’m starting to change my mind.

It does make you smile a bit when it feels once again like a breakthrough is near, and Roni is logging another recommendation. We’re going with the “four K’s” strategy (Kumppanuuksia, Kiihtyvää Kasvua ja Kannattavuutta - Partnerships, Accelerating Growth, and Profitability): what could possibly go wrong ; )

It would be good to get the new guys introduced/interviewed, at least the CEO. It would be interesting to know how heavily shareholder value weighs on the agenda and how the new guys are incentivized/committed to their roles.

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Inside information, profit warning: SSH Communications Security Corporation revises its EBITDA guidance for 2026; guidance for revenue and cash flow from business operations remains unchanged.

New guidance for 2026:
We expect revenue to grow during 2026 compared to 2025 and business cash flow to be positive in 2026. We estimate that EBITDA will be negative for the full year 2026, but will improve in the second half of the year compared to the first half.

Previous guidance for 2026, published on February 17, 2026:
We expect revenue to grow during 2026 compared to 2025. We estimate that EBITDA and business cash flow will be positive in 2026.

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Here are Roni’s comments on SSH’s profit warning.

SSH announced yesterday evening that it is lowering its guidance for the current year’s EBITDA. The reasons for the lowered guidance are the delay of larger customer orders expected for the third quarter and continued front-loaded investments in growth. Although profitability optimization is not at the core of the investment story in SSH’s current situation, the profit warning is naturally negative and will lead to forecast cuts especially regarding earnings, but also revenue due to the delayed customer orders.

Roni has published a new company report on SSH :slight_smile:

SSH issued a negative profit warning on Tuesday, stating that this year’s EBITDA will remain negative due to delayed customer orders. The profit warning led to only minor cuts in our growth forecasts, but at the same time, we raised our cost forecasts significantly. We do not see great drama in the profit warning, but uncertainty regarding the growth outlook increased slightly, and reflecting this, the share’s risk-reward ratio is still not attractive despite the price drop. We are lowering our target price to 1.9 euros (previously 2.0 euros), but raising our recommendation to reduce (previously sell).

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Here are Roni’s preview comments as SSH reports its Q3 results next week on Wednesday :slight_smile:

The quarter is colored by the negative profit warning issued by the company in late September, as a result of which we expect only moderate revenue growth from Q3 and profitability that is clearly weaker than the comparison period, weighed down by front-loaded growth investments and order delays. The main focus of the report will be on the new CEO’s appearance and his views on the company’s situation. In addition, we expect comments on the situation with delayed customer orders and the ramp-up of the recently announced major bank deal.

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Roni interviewed SSH CEO Lars Bell regarding the Q3 results. :slight_smile:

Topics:

(00:00) Introduction
(00:16) The new CEO introduces himself
(01:45) First observations about the company
(04:13) Achieving commercial success
(05:35) The profit warning issued
(07:42) Order delays
(08:46) EUR 3 million banking contract
(09:58) Agentic AI
(12:05) Leonardo partnership
(13:37) Profitability and investments
(15:17) Sales outlook

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Here is the company report from Roni following SSH’s Q3 results :slight_smile:

SSH’s Q3 figures developed largely in line with our expectations. As expected following September’s profit warning, growth was moderate, but ARR showed good growth, as anticipated, driven by the major banking deal announced in September. Our forecasts remain largely unchanged following the report, and we expect growth to pick up starting as early as Q4. In our view, the share’s valuation (2026e EV/S 4.2x) remains on the stretched side relative to the growth outlook. We reiterate our target price of EUR 1.90 and our Reduce recommendation.

Rami in action regarding Redeye’s Defence & Space day:

https://www.redeye.se/events/1145884/redeye-theme-defence-space?tab=schedule

SSH’s segment starts around 5:40. Lots of talk about PQC and satellites. Strict regulations from the US GSA regarding the transition to quantum-safe encryption, with the EU taking a similar stance. Familiar drivers: AI DCs, defense, and satellites. First pilot for post-quantum satellite communication delivered, etc.

Plenty of other interesting presentations throughout the long day as well. Definitely worth a watch if you’re interested in these sectors.

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SSH Communications Security Oyj | Stock Exchange Release | 5 Nov 2026 at 10:00:00 EET

SSH Communications Security Oyj (“SSH”) will redeem all of its outstanding hybrid bond notes, with an aggregate nominal value of EUR 440,000, on 15 December 2026.

Now they’re finally getting rid of the hybrid loan for good.

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Here are Roni’s comments on SSH redeeming the rest of its hybrid bond :slight_smile:

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