That Petri is a brisk fellow - here is the company report as well
Sanoma’s Q1 development was largely in line with expectations, although the profitability improvement in Media Finland was a positive surprise. We have not made major changes to our forecasts, but we incorporated a recent small acquisition. We expect significant earnings growth from Sanoma this year thanks to market growth in the learning business, and the medium-term earnings growth outlook is also good.
Quoted from the report:
Earnings growth to continue in the coming years
We have not made material changes to the longer-term forecasts, but they rose slightly supported by the acquisition. We expect Sanoma’s net sales to grow in both segments in 2027 supported by market growth, which will also flow efficiently into earnings growth. Overall, our average adjusted EBIT growth forecast for 2026-2028 is at a good level of 7% and in line with the high single-digit earnings growth targeted by the company.
I was looking at Sanoma’s target prices after the Q1 results. With a quick glance, I found the ones listed below. Other brokerage firms have likely updated their target prices as well. In any case, everyone seems to agree that the outlook is good!
Here is Juho Toratti’s analysis of Sanoma following Q1
Sanoma started the year 2024 strongly. High expectations have been placed on the current year, as curriculum reforms in Learning’s largest market areas are estimated to accelerate Sanoma’s growth. In the first quarter, the company delivered revenue slightly better than the consensus forecast compiled by LSEG Workspace, thanks to the learning business and especially its main markets in the Netherlands, Spain, and Poland. Growth expectations have been focused particularly on Spain and Poland, so the success in the first quarter in these markets builds confidence that growth will only accelerate during the seasonally stronger second and third quarters.
Above are two videos that I believe provide good insights into Sanoma’s future outlook. CEO Kolkman paints a credible growth path for Sanoma’s coming years, and the first signs of growth should already be visible during H2 of this year.
The market, however, hasn’t watched the videos yet—or has watched them but doesn’t believe what it sees and hears. The coming months will be interesting for the share price development. If the company provides indications of growth during the upcoming quarters, the share price performance will likely be very different from what it has been over the past year. Personally, I believe in the company’s story and have significantly increased my position during the early part of the year. Time will tell if this becomes a hit or a miss.
At the end of the interview, we asked the company’s management what they believe makes Sanoma an attractive investment right now. The answer is clear:
”Driven by the Learning business, we have a clear growth path for the years 2026–2030. This is already reflected in the outlook for the current year 2026, which points to a clear acceleration in earnings growth.”
”In addition, growth potential is created by the opening of the gambling market in Finland in mid-2027, as well as potential acquisitions in the K-12 (perus- ja toinen aste) learning business,” sums up Sanoma’s CEO Rob Kolkman.
Note!
IR-monitoring is a channel by SalkunRakentaja and Sijoittaja.fi for corporate partners to share background and analytical articles, as well as other interesting investor information. The article is part of a commercial collaboration with the company. The article does not contain investment recommendations.
Strange closing auction today for Sanoma. Take a look at the 5-minute chart, for example. The price was at the 8.86 level just before the end, until about 44,000 shares went through in the closing auction and the closing price was suddenly 8.46. Thoughts?
The momentum has been pretty sluggish anyway. Low volume and the share price is just crawling along. Maybe someone wanted to dump all their shares at the end of the day, it’s hard to say. In my opinion, Sanoma gets very little attention, which likely affects the volumes. However, earnings growth is coming, and the 2026 P/E and EV/EBIT are around 11.
Sanoma has acquired Fluentbe, a Polish digital language learning tutoring platform, from its founders and other shareholders. Fluentbe combines its own teaching methods, learning materials, and technology with expert tutors to offer AI-powered, personalized language learning for both individual and corporate clients.
Founded in 2015, Fluentbe serves over 40,000 students and collaborates with more than 600 active, highly qualified tutors. The company’s platform was the first in Poland to introduce an AI-based instructor that provides a comprehensive learning program and assessment system tailored to each learner.
In 2025, Fluentbe’s net sales were approximately EUR 6 million. Following the acquisition, Fluentbe’s employees, founders, and management will join Sanoma Learning.
Petri is a bit early, since Sanoma reports its Q2 results on Wednesday.
We forecast that the company’s revenue has remained stable, but we expect slight earnings growth as a result of operational efficiency improvements. The guidance range provided by the company for the current year points to significant earnings growth for the year, and our expectations, as well as those of the consensus, are slightly above the midpoint of the guidance range.
Here are Petri’s quick comments on this morning’s earnings.
Sanoma’s Q2 result, published this morning, was roughly in line with the comparison period and thus missed the forecasts, which had anticipated slight earnings growth. According to our preliminary assessment, this was mainly due to timing factors in the learning business. However, the company reiterated its guidance for the current year, and we do not expect significant downward pressure on our or the consensus forecasts, which are slightly above the midpoint of the earnings guidance range.
Sanoma’s H1 2026 was strong and in line with the plan, but one line item is grabbing headlines for the wrong reasons.
Adjusted operating profit rose to 46.4 million euros (43.3) despite a slight decline in revenue — exactly the operational leverage one wants to see during a transformation.
Learning delivered: comparable growth was +1% (Media Finland −5%), and approximately 15 million euros in sales shifted to the crucial third quarter. Q3 is the peak season for the learning business, and the signs are strong — with over 60 new learning material series and tailwinds from reforms in Sweden and Poland. The outlook for 2026 remained unchanged: adjusted operating profit of 205–225 million euros vs. 188, representing an improvement of approximately 14%.
A superficial reader might be startled by two figures: net debt rose to 3.0x (target below 2.5x) and free cash flow weakened to −73.4 million euros. Both are due to seasonality, the refinancing of a hybrid bond, and the Vicens Vives acquisition — not distress — and they are expected to turn around in H2.
Strategically, the three Learning acquisitions in 2026 and the concrete investment in artificial intelligence are interesting; the AI Teacher Assistant led 88% of teachers to rate its materials as at least equal to their own. The thesis remains unchanged — any potential drop in the share price due to debt and cash flow headlines would mask the progress being made according to plan, and the true outcome will be seen in Q3.
As an addition to the morning comment, please note this part of the CEO’s review in the image below. According to the company, 15 MEUR in revenue was shifted to Q3, and if you estimate from that via the gross margin, the impact on earnings is likely a high single-digit million figure. Our forecast for Learning’s adjusted operating profit was 57 MEUR (actual 52 MEUR), so without this shift, I estimate that the Q2 result would have even slightly exceeded expectations.
We will probably get more details on this from the company during the earnings call, but with the new semester starting, I am not at all surprised that some of these sales are being shifted, and I recall off the top of my head that this isn’t the first time. Judging by the share price reaction, the market also seems to have bought this, or perhaps expectations were just lower than the consensus forecasts anyway
00:00 Introduction
00:12 Key highlights of the second quarter
01:07 Development of the media business
02:35 Fluentbe acquisition
03:24 Potential future acquisitions
04:48 The future of TV advertising
06:05 Development of the learning business
07:45 Guidance and outlook
I wonder if the stock is quite cheap, especially considering what the future looks like…
Sanoma’s Q2 operating profit, which remained at the level of the comparison period, fell short of our estimates; we believe this was primarily due to timing factors in the learning business. Reflecting this, we have not made any significant changes to our forecasts, and our expectations for robust earnings growth this year and in the coming years remain unchanged. Relative to this earnings growth outlook, the stock’s valuation is low, which is why we reiterate our Buy recommendation and our target price of 11.5 euros. Sanoma’s CEO Q2 interview (in English) can be viewed at this link.
