For almost half a year now, a friend and I have been wondering about Sanoma’s valuation relative to its outlook and analysts’ forecasts… and I’ve been buying aggressively with the little funds I’ve had available in my equity savings account (OST).
I also see Sanoma as offering a moderate amount of risk relative to the potential return; furthermore, the dividend provides a bit of backing against delays and somewhat limits the downside risk. Normally, I don’t like binary risk situations. The good thing about Sanoma is that the can can’t really be kicked down the road, and if this learning material cycle goes wrong, you don’t have to sit around waiting to see if maybe next quarter will be the one. The valuation is modest enough that I estimate the drop resulting from a failure to be relatively small.
Sometimes I wonder if I’m seeing the situation through rose-colored glasses and missing something, since the market hardly cares about the outlook. In Lindex and Valmet, the upside was priced in almost 12 months in advance.
In a way, it brings to mind Nordea last year when the valuation was low and the outlook quite good, but the market was late to follow. Back then, it would have at least paid off to listen to the analysts 
I believe the quietness of the discussion is largely due to the fact that the train is running smoothly on the tracks. I think and hope that if there are any wrinkles in the story, it will spark more discussion. In Sanoma’s case, there seems to be a reasonably good visibility into how the situation is developing and a “clear” deadline.