Sanoma - undervalued dividend machine?

Petri has likely updated Sanoma’s company report from Torstaikalle. :slight_smile:

We have reviewed our forecasts following Sanoma’s Capital Markets Day and updated financial targets. Our forecasts were also well-aligned with the current targets, and the forecast changes we made were primarily focused on Media Finland’s medium-term forecasts, which are affected by the expected opening of the gambling advertising market presumably during 2027. In our view, the stock’s valuation is attractive relative to the earnings growth we forecast for the coming years, so we are raising our recommendation to the Buy level (prev. Accumulate) and reiterating our target price of EUR 11.3.

Quoted from the report:

The strongest earnings growth will be in 2026, when we expect Learning’s revenue growth and a clear improvement in profitability to raise its result to a new level. Even after the clear improvement in profitability, we expect Learning’s revenue growth to keep it in clear earnings growth. Regarding Media Finland, we expect a slight improvement in operational efficiency in its historical fashion, but we forecast clear growth in its earnings level in 2028, when gambling advertising brings high-margin growth throughout the year. Our 2028e forecast includes roughly EUR 16 million in growth in ad sales (incl. other advertising growth), so our forecast is conservative relative to the company’s target level. This is due to forecast risks currently related to market size and the company’s market position.

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