Root Insurance - car insurance industry disruptor

I should have put up a thread for this a long time ago, so here’s a thread with a light start to make tracking easier.

Root Insurance Co is a US insurance company focused on auto and rental insurance. The company strongly aims to leverage technology. Root states that it utilizes a phone application and telematics to assess its customers’ driving behavior. The company “rewards” safe and responsible drivers with lower insurance premiums, of course.

Root operates entirely digitally, meaning all services from purchasing insurance to processing claims occur online or through the application.

Unlike others, the company prices insurance individually based on users’ actual driving behavior, which differs from other models that are based more or less on general statistics.

Here is the company’s latest investor presentation: https://ir.joinroot.com/static-files/0a89bb64-f6c3-46b3-b99c-79e7bbe377fc (take these talks with a grain of salt :slight_smile: )

Latest 10-Q: (Q3 2024) https://ir.joinroot.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/10-q/0001628280-24-044321

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In recent figures, the company has turned profitable, and the EV/EBIT is around 20, which I don’t think is a bad level with these growth figures.

Q2 2024: https://ir.joinroot.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/10-q/0001628280-24-035605

Q1 2024: https://ir.joinroot.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/10-q/0001628280-24-019351

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A few insights and views regarding this company. :slight_smile:

If I understood what I read + watched, Root’s earnings are turning positive, which will naturally improve future P/E and ROE ratios.

The company has strong growth, and market expectations are also high (too high?). According to another tweet, the Carvana cooperation brings stability, and the expansion plans generally strengthen the long-term outlook.

https://x.com/thexcapitalist/status/1890421343960633849

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https://x.com/KabraxFX/status/1890111568798707942

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Carvana has agreed to an exclusive partnership agreement with Root regarding car insurance. This, of course, already started in 2021 Carvana and Root, Inc. Exclusively Partner to Develop Industry-First Integrated Auto Insurance Solutions for Carvana Customers | Carvana In brief, Carvana’s customers can acquire insurance for their car from Root at the time of purchase.

Carvana already reported its Q4 2024 results, in which the company stated it had sold 114,379 cars. In Q3 2024, Carvana sold 108,651 cars. From that, one can at least make some expectations regarding Root.

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https://ir.joinroot.com/static-files/3266b776-fdf9-4d17-8390-5134628a5548
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$326.7M Actual Vs $278M Zacks +48.7M
22M PROFIT VS Consensus -9.5M LOSS

Very good work. This is a good starting point for the next quarters.

Let’s add this too
Screenshot_20250226_233353_OneDrive

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I made a short comparison of ROOT vs LMND. All the hard financial figures say that ROOT is better.

App reviews on Google Play Store: LMND clearly ahead
LMND 4.2/5, 18k reviews, 1M+ downloads
ROOT 3.2/5, 37.5k reviews, 1M+ downloads.

Reading the reviews, almost all negative reviews for ROOT complain about the price. This might not be a bad thing from the shareholders’ perspective, as profits have to come from somewhere.

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I also joined ROOT due to tariff discounts, even though according to my own calculations, a 20-30% more expensive price would have been quite affordable.

The utilization of telematics in Finland was already discussed during my studies in the early 2010s, and there might have been some timid experiments by insurance companies. To my knowledge, they failed due to low demand, which was influenced by high customer investment costs, difficulty of implementation, and too small benefits. In Finland, car insurance premiums are also relatively low compared to, for example, the British and USA/Canada.

From the perspective of ROOT’s stock performance, I see a few key positive drivers:

  1. Selection of so-called good customers - ROOT’s insurance policies are relatively cheap for low-risk customers based on driving style and expensive for high-risk customers. Of course, other insurance companies also try to model this pricing with different variables related to the vehicle and driver, but I believe that ROOT, with its own model, gets closer to the truth than others. Additionally, I believe that telematics also positively affects driving behavior, as the awareness of being monitored constantly lingers in the back of one’s mind.
  2. High customer loyalty - If I interpret ROOT’s figures correctly, customer retention is roughly 86%, which I consider very good. Especially considering that some customers come, for example, through Carvana with a pre-agreed insurance premium, and the final premium is only determined after “test drives”. For this reason, ROOT has certainly received negative reviews when the final premium has increased within a short period after purchasing the insurance.
  3. ROOT’s operating expenses are still at a very high level, approximately 36% of premiums. Considering automation and assuming increased efficiency in customer acquisition in the future, this should be brought closer to market averages of 15-25%, which would provide a nice leverage for results.
  4. Insurance operations are capital-intensive, so top-line growth largely follows the growth of solvency capital and OPO. Growing profit fuels this, and even though the absolute scale is increasing, I believe that relative growth can still be accelerated over the next few years. By growth, I mean in-force insurance policies, which grew by 21% in Q4. Now, claims inflation is moderating, so in my view, the same kind of tailwind as in the last 3 years is not to be expected from there.

As one negative aspect, I see customer acquisition. So, the customer has two options: 1) either they drive a test period before purchasing insurance and receive an offer from ROOT based on that, or 2) they immediately purchase insurance at a fixed price, after which they drive a test period, and the final premium is determined afterward, in which case the surprise can often be negative, and the customer decides to purchase insurance elsewhere. It would be interesting to know how the commissions of an insurance broker or Carvana work in these cases.

Another significant risk is competition, although I believe copying would be difficult, at least in the sense of making it a profitable business. An example is Lemonade, which seems to have challenges with profitability and offers telematics-based pricing. However, I haven’t studied them in detail. And on the other hand, the incentives of traditional large insurers (GEICO, Allstate, Statefarm, etc.) are not in favor of telematics-based pricing.

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Results: https://ir.joinroot.com/static-files/39f30d3f-26c6-4a3b-afb8-936a43a920ed
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SL: https://ir.joinroot.com/static-files/7860c126-18c2-44f9-ba55-62077671bb40
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GL continues to improve, now at 57.9%, excellent!

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Nice growth, but if you break it down a bit:

  • Insurance contracts grew by 13%
  • Avg. premium grew by 9%

16% of net premiums earned was spent on sales and marketing. Customer acquisition is therefore expensive. I believe partner sales and customer churn are the biggest reasons for this. It would be interesting to know the churn rate.

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Customer retention could be modeled by comparing the renewal premium to the earned premiums from a year ago, i.e., premiums that were already in force a year ago.

For example, Q1/25 renewal premium was 193mUSD (56% x 344mUSD). Q1/24 earned premium was 244.7mUSD, meaning customer churn would be 51.7mUSD or 129,250 insurance contracts, if using Q1/25 average annual premium of 1,614USD, of which approx. 1/4 or 400USD belongs to Q1. So, with this logic, customer churn would be approx. 30%, which is not catastrophic, but not good either. This is explained by the customer acquisition model I mentioned earlier, where insurance is purchased with a certain advance premium before a trial period, and the final premium is determined after the trial period.

On the other hand, this makes the achieved growth look absolutely phenomenal, i.e., the growth in new contracts would be in the range of 40-45%.

Please correct me if you see any errors in my logic.

Edit: I’ll correct myself. The previous calculations for modeling customer retention are incorrect.

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Customer retention cannot be calculated that way. One should know what part of Q1/24 earned premium belongs to Q1/24 renewals or new policies made then. I’ll have to think about this more. Currently, the Q1/24 earned premium figure also includes Q2-Q4 renewing/started policies, which are not included in Q1/25 renewal premiums, because they only renew in Q2-Q4/25.

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Is there any information on what the typical car insurance churn is? I wouldn’t be surprised if the industry average was 30%. Insurance policies are usually quite aggressively shopped around.

In a previous app comparison where I read comments about ROOT on the Google Play Store, many criticized the rising price. From this, one can conclude that churn is high. On the other hand, it’s not a problem if every customer can be priced correctly. Drivers safer than average benefit from Root and continue with it, driving fewer accidents. Risky drivers then go with other companies because they get a cheaper price there. The biggest question for this company is whether phone data-based pricing works correctly. If it does, to_the_moon and a 50% churn is a small matter.

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Unfortunately, there is no information about car insurance churn. However, if I am correct about my previous mistake, ROOT’s churn is clearly less than 30%.

Yes, that good customer selection benefits ROOT and makes traditional pricing more difficult over time. To put it simply, good BMW drivers are with ROOT and bad ones with competitors, who, as claims data worsens, have to raise their prices per BMW because they can’t grasp that the worsening claims data is due to the deterioration of the average driver. Well, perhaps that scenario isn’t very relevant for the next 5-10 years yet.

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Carvana’s crew has a large stack of warrants that mature on 1.9. Strike prices 180, 198, 216. Predicts volatility before that and before CVNA’s Q2 accounting close, which I think has already passed (I haven’t checked).

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https://ir.joinroot.com/static-files/357cb167-08a2-44ae-902b-e30cbdfa0eba

Q2 2025

Rev est- 338.35M vs 382.9(13.2% beat)
EPS est- .22 vs (1.457 EPS)(662% beat)

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What caught my attention in the report was the CEO’s mention that their software automatically reduced marketing investments in direct sales when it detected a period of strong competition. During such periods, the profit is higher than average, but growth is smaller. When competitive conditions are better, the situation reverses => larger marketing investments, stronger growth, lower profitability. The significance of this will decrease as they introduce new sales channels and, for example, Carvana’s share grows. But in my opinion, it’s again a great demonstration of the company’s capabilities in utilizing data.

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ROOT: I had to wonder about the diversification in the insurtech area. There would have been budding interest in a small investment. But after checking the App Store/Play Store reviews and Glassdoor reviews, my interest completely waned. As a workplace, ROOT is held in the same regard as legacy operators, about 1 point behind Lemonade and Progressive. In my opinion, a world-class experience is not created if the best employees don’t want to work for the company. With a mediocre employee experience, the best won’t even consider ROOT as a workplace.

Similar setbacks were seen in App Store ratings. There, without a doubt, they get a lot of flak when insurance is taken alongside Carvana’s car dealerships, and the price increases due to telematics. I also listened to a couple of CEO interviews; there was indeed an idea there. But still nowhere near the appeal of the LMND duo, Daniel Schreiber and Shai Wininger.

I will continue to follow it, however. On Twitter and Reddit, ROOT seems to be trending and is even being pumped.

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I hadn’t even thought to check Glassdoor. It certainly looks weak based on that, but I believe that the large layoffs in 2022 also heavily influence the numbers, which, based on comments, were handled poorly. When reading a bit more comments, the negative side largely mirrors Lemonade’s “micromanagement,” “processes constantly changing,” “no proper onboarding,” “a lot of calls” (apparently on the claims side). Additionally, one ROOT comment mentioned that claims data is recorded in Google Sheets instead of a claims system, which sounded very peculiar. Based on that, there seems to be huge potential for improvement in their systems, if one is looking for a silver lining.

I would argue that in both ROOT and Lemonade, the employee headcount is heavily weighted towards claims processing, which is not very glamorous, especially if one has to take 30-50 customer calls per day (I have experience). In car accidents, there is often an immediate situation, making it common to call the insurance company instead of submitting an online claim. ROOT practically only does car insurance, although they have already started expanding into home insurance (Renters insurance in an app | Root Insurance). For Lemonade, car insurance is still small, and home and pet insurance make up the clear majority. In these types of insurance, online claim notifications are much more common, which is considerably more pleasant for a claims handler.

These are my thoughts on the Glassdoor reviews, but as stated, ROOT certainly has a lot to improve in that area.

If one starts to compare ROOT and Lemonade more closely, I believe that purely from a customer acquisition perspective, Lemonade has a better strategy in offering a wide range of insurance products, especially in insurance types (home and pets) where customer retention is better compared to car insurance. It also helps with cross-selling, e.g., in car insurance, where Lemonade also uses telematics. A home insurance customer can be offered a test period with telematics, after which they receive an offer for car insurance. However, I find it peculiar that they, as such a small player, have also expanded into Europe.

ROOT’s customer acquisition slowed significantly in Q2, but new geographical openings and sales channels will hopefully support growth in H2. Otherwise, the stock might be in for a rough ride, as management has already promised that costs will increase significantly in H2, which could cause earnings to fall back into loss. Management’s strategy for customer acquisition seems to be focusing on the partnership channel (Carvana, brokers/agents, etc.), which I believe is much weaker than direct sales, because in the partner channel they have to onboard the customer before a test period. In the Q2 earnings report, they mentioned that they cut marketing investments specifically from direct sales because the competitive situation is tight. Hopefully, the new pricing model improves the customer experience in that partnership channel; below is an excerpt from the Q2 earnings report:

“This included the launch of our new pricing model in several states, with early indicators showing that this model is substantially improving our risk selection, increasing estimated customer lifetime values by 20% on average.”

Lemonade (H1/-25: 35% relative to revenue excluding investment income) also spends significantly more money on sales and marketing compared to ROOT (H1/-25: 12.4% relative to revenue excluding investment income). This is also reflected in the results. Additionally, Lemonade has a 10-percentage point weaker Loss ratio (75% vs. ROOT’s 65%).

ROOT also has clear room for improvement on the investment income side. I don’t fully understand why they are holding such a large cash reserve (40% of the balance sheet) unproductively in an account. For Lemonade, the corresponding share is 20%.

An interesting H2 is coming.

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When investing and comparing LMND and ROOT, it’s worth at least briefly looking at the valuation multiples and figures.

These are taken directly from Nordnet today, 29.9.2025, but they are unlikely to be far off.

Lemonade:

Market cap 3.88 billion USD

Revenue (Q2 25) 164 million USD – Growth (compared to Q2 24) 34.5%

Net income (Q2 25) -43.9 million USD

P/S 7.36

Root Insurance:

Market cap 1.18 billion USD

Revenue (Q2 25) 383 million USD - Growth (compared to Q2 24) 32.3%

Net income (Q2 25) 22 million USD

P/S 1.2

From this, one can draw their own conclusions, but for me, it’s difficult to justify why I would buy Lemonade if I had to choose between these two.

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I’ve looked at the same thing – I don’t understand the valuation differences, and my own choice between these two is ROOT. A Seeking Alpha user pointed out in an article that Lemonade’s LTV/CAC would be much better than ROOT’s, but I disagree. LTV per customer is relatively and absolutely much better for ROOT due to a better loss ratio and a larger average revenue per customer. Besides, CAC is especially difficult to calculate for ROOT, as in some contracts, sales/broker commissions run for the entire duration of the insurance policy. Therefore, Q1 sales/marketing expenses cannot be correlated with Q1 customer growth. The same article mentioned that it considers Lemonade’s marketing more successful. Who knows.

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Indeed, Lemonade loyalists will find suitable figures there to support their own theories. One often hears that Root’s weakness is their strong focus on car insurance, whereas Lemonade has a wider selection, but the results speak for themselves. The figures clearly show whose strategy has proven to be successful.

Something must, however, happen to the valuation differences; either Root corrects upwards or Lemonade downwards. Furthermore, Lemonade’s path to profitability is entirely unproven; if I remember correctly, this is predicted to happen sometime in 2027-2028, but whether the can will be kicked down the road then, time will tell. It is strange that a company that has turned its business profitable is valued at a 1 P/S multiple, while a very close comparable company making heavy losses is valued at 7 P/S. The companies are, however, growing at the same pace, and furthermore, growing revenue from a level of approximately 400 million per quarter versus approximately 160 million is significantly more difficult.

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It must be clarified that ROOT’s growth wasn’t quite as spectacular as revenue would suggest. “Policies in force”, i.e., the 12-month premium income from policies in force, grew “only” by approx. 20% in Q2. About 8 percentage points are explained by a change in the reinsurance agreement, where ROOT has taken on more risk itself, thus keeping a larger portion of the premium income for itself. For Lemonade, “policies in force” grew by approx. 30% in Q2.

Lemonade’s customer growth has also been very steady at 5-8% quarterly. ROOT’s growth was 0.3% QoQ last quarter. The annual growth is practically entirely explained by Q1 growth.

One more interesting observation is that Lemonade’s average car insurance premium is $1,895 per policy and for ROOT it’s $1,616. This can, of course, be largely explained by the vehicle fleet. Despite

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