RevolutionRace – Nature is our playground

Official name: RVRC Holding Ab

Domicile and stock exchange: Borås, Sweden, and NASDAQ Stockholm (mid-cap). Listed in July 2021. The company was founded in 2013.

Ticker: RVRC

Business: Online retailer of outdoor clothing, Direct-To-Consumer. www.revolutionrace.fi corporate.revolutionrace.com

Fast-growing, easily scalable, profitable, with significant founder ownership and active founders in company management.

CEO: Pernilla Nyrensten

Special note: Nyrensten is the first female founder and CEO to take her company public on the Stockholm Stock Exchange in its 160-year history. Fiscal year: July 1 - June 30.

Share price at the time of writing the opening post on June 14, 2022: 55.00 SEK. The company’s market capitalization at today’s price is 7.2 billion SEK. Revenue for the calendar year 2021 was 1,164 million SEK, and adjusted EBIT was 28.7 percent. The IPO subscription price was 75 SEK per share in July 2021.

I am opening this thread for the Swedish outdoor brand RevolutionRace. The company has an interesting story, my own experiences with their online store have been positive, it has ambitious goals, and the company is profitable. I see a lot of growth opportunities for the company. Its founders, Pernilla Nyrensten and Niclas Nyrensten, are outdoor enthusiasts who noticed a lack of affordable, functional, and good-looking outdoor clothing on the market. They founded the company in 2013 as a garage startup to fill this gap. From the beginning, they have utilized customer feedback in their product development, and today, a community has developed around the brand, similar to an Inderes (Finnish investor community) community, with over 340,000 product reviews published on the company’s website. The brand seems to have many fans, evidenced by the fact that when RR launched its first hiking shoe collection in December 2021, they sold out in two days. The company has online stores in 18 countries and also has company pages on Amazon in Germany and the UK. The most important market areas are German-speaking Europe and the Nordic countries.

Business model

RevolutionRace does not manufacture clothes itself; instead, products are manufactured through subcontractors in China and Vietnam. Products are sold directly to consumers via the online store without intermediaries, i.e., direct-to-consumer. According to the company: “Our business model is actually quite simple. We sell outdoor clothing exclusively online, directly to our customers. By eliminating retailers and other unnecessary intermediaries, we can bring our new products to market faster. While other brands typically take a year to develop a new product, it only takes us six months. A faster, more direct process without intermediaries means we can offer quality clothing at a reasonable price.”

Another successful D2C online store that comes to mind is the German bicycle manufacturer Canyon. Maailmanluokan maantie-, gravel- ja maastopyörät | CANYON FI

Both have successfully established themselves in industries where customers may have been accustomed to personalized service from specialty stores. Both companies benefit from a good price-quality ratio and a wide product selection. D2C clearly brings pricing power to the market compared to traditional players. In the bicycle industry, Canyon has inspired several manufacturers to follow the same business model, especially for enthusiast bikes.

Growth

Sales are flowing like a river. Revenue has grown from 284 million SEK in the fiscal year July 1, 2018 – June 30, 2019, to 1.1 billion SEK in calendar year 2021. The goal is to continue growing to at least 2 billion SEK by the fiscal year July 1, 2023 – June 30, 2024. Growth has largely occurred in existing markets, but new online stores (countries) have also been opened. Most recently, Switzerland in the autumn and Estonia in the spring. The launches have been successful. It is easy to see growth opportunities by expanding into new target groups and product categories. In December 2021, hiking shoes were launched and sold out in two days. In the spring, a backpack collection was launched, which has also sold well and received good reviews. Geographically, new markets are available. The easiest market area is certainly Europe. No acquisitions have been made in history, so all growth is organic.

In the first quarter of 2022, growth no longer occurred in the Nordic countries. In the “corona hangover,” the entire market declined by approximately 14 percent, meaning RR, by maintaining its sales, increased its market share. Revolution’s market share in the Nordic countries is about 2.5 percent and in Germany 1 percent. Sales in German-speaking Europe continued to grow.

Growth opportunities include opening new online stores (countries) somewhat “Evolution-style” (referencing Evolution Gaming, a successful online gaming company that expanded globally). This means expanding into new product categories and increasing market share. Opportunities are easy to see, provided that the overall market does not decline significantly.

Profitability

Adjusted EBIT for calendar year 2022 was 28.7 percent. In the quarter ending December 31, 2021, adjusted EBIT was 28.9 percent. In its interim report, RevolutionRace warned that transportation availability would increase costs and slow down deliveries, affecting profitability. RR believes this situation will continue this quarter. The company aims for an EBIT margin of over 25 percent in the future. The company’s profit has been positive throughout the monitoring period.

Dividend distribution

Dividend distribution of 40-60 percent of distributable earnings. For the fiscal year July 1, 2020 – June 30, 2021, 0.67 SEK per share.

Risks

RevolutionRace has benefited from the COVID-19 pandemic. A record number of pet dogs have been purchased, and national parks are full of RevolutionRace outdoor gear. People haven’t been keen to go to shopping malls, so online purchases have been easy to make. The “corona hangover” has already been visible in the Nordic markets, where the overall market has shrunk by almost 12 percent, while RR’s sales have remained constant. I believe that outdoor clothing is at the top of the list of purchases to be cut when consumer purchasing power weakens, but on the other hand, there is a shift from more expensive brands to products with a better price-quality ratio. At the time of the IPO, Dagens Industri clearly took a stance on the risk of brand burnout. It noted that there have often been examples of rapid rises and falls of fashion brands. At this point, it is necessary to assess whether a hiking clothing brand is different.

Analyst coverage

Carnegie: Buy with a target price of 95 SEK as of May 11, 2022.

Nordea: Buy with a target price of 105 SEK as of Feb 9, 2022.

Comparables

USWE P/E 32

MIPS P/E 55

Musti Group P/E 26

Boozt P/E 32

RVRC P/E 23

My own experiences

I first came across RevolutionRace’s website through Facebook marketing a few years ago. I wondered about the customer reviews, how good one pair of pants could be. Soon after adopting the hiking pants, I wrote a similar review. Since then, I have bought all my outdoor clothing from here. Sometimes making a purchase has been limited by the lack of suitable sizes.

Some of the material translated from Swedish, so in addition to all other errors, translation errors are also possible.

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Good point! You haven’t been following this lately, but I didn’t participate in the IPO at the time because I thought it was ridiculously overpriced. Now that the price is falling and the business seems to have progressed quite well, this could be an interesting addition, although on a quick look, I still think it’s expensive compared to its peers. I’ll have to investigate further! :slight_smile:

Here are some of my preliminary observations:

  • The products are, as far as I understand, high quality. I don’t have personal experience yet, but at least online reviews, hiking blogs, etc., have mainly praised them positively. So, there should be enough customers in the future.
  • The price point is quite good: if you compare it to another Swedish manufacturer, Fjällräven, for example, hiking gear is roughly half (or even more) cheaper. Of course, the materials are not quite at the same level (at least on paper) and the environmental aspect is not taken into account as carefully.

Then, the comparables. I wouldn’t compare this directly to other online stores, but rather to outdoor brands, as the customer base is more similar and their sales development perhaps reflects RR’s potential more accurately (these can, of course, have a very different cost structure vs. RR because many are older companies and perhaps more dependent on brick-and-mortar stores, etc.).

If you compare it to the aforementioned Fjällräven - or more precisely Fenix Outdoor International, there is still a significant difference in key figures if you look at P/S or P/B ratios, for example:

Other potential comparables - these also have more moderate key figures.

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Some of the company’s management apparently share the view that the stock is expensive, as they sold immediately on the first day after the buying restrictions expired, or perhaps they need cash.

Based on earnings, RR is already clearly below Fenix’s valuation.

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Huh, if it’s going well, why not enjoy it? CEO Pernilla booked herself one of Stockholm’s most expensive hotel suites for the rest of the year.

I have a strong feeling that this has been seen before, but we’re hanging on with white knuckles to the panic handle.

As an analyst update from a few weeks ago
https://mobile.twitter.com/ResearchPool/status/1539736040079929345

CEO steps down of their own volition and a search for a new one begins.

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Annual report published today

Full year (Jul 2021 – Jun 2022)

  • Net sales in the financial year 2021/2022 increased by 48 percent to SEK 1,331.5 (897.1) million.
  • Operating profit (EBIT) increased by 59 percent and amounted to SEK 366.8 (230.4) million, corresponding to an EBIT margin of 26.3 (25.2) percent. Adjusted operating profit (EBIT) amounted to SEK 366.8 (252.2) million, corresponding to an adjusted EBIT margin of 26.3 (27.6) percent.
  • Average net order value (AOV) was SEK 803 (763).
  • The Board of Directors proposes a dividend of SEK 0.77 (0.64) per share.

Fourth quarter (Apr 2022 – Jun 2022)

  • Net sales in the fourth quarter increased by 16 percent to SEK 318.2 (273.7) million.
  • Operating profit (EBIT) increased by 9 percent and amounted to SEK 73.0 (66.7) million, corresponding to an EBIT margin of 21.3 (23.9) percent. Adjusted operating profit (EBIT) amounted to SEK 73.0 (79.0) million, corresponding to an adjusted EBIT margin of 21.3 (28.3) percent.
  • Average net order value (AOV) was SEK 774 (740). The increase is primarily explained by a favourable market mix.
  • Earnings per share before dilution amounted to SEK 0.52 (0.44) and after dilution SEK 0.52 (0.44).

Webcast 11:00 Finnish time;

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A good fiscal year for RevolutionRace, but profitability weakened and inventory grew in the last quarter. An update for July also indicated that growth has slowed. The wording was that growth was slower than in Q4. Q4 sales grew by 16 percent, while full-year sales grew by 48 percent, which was above the company’s own expectations. Profit grew by nine percent in the last quarter due to weakened profitability, while full-year growth was 59 percent. The company itself did not consider the inventory situation alarming; on the contrary, product availability is now better, and they have prepared for supply chain issues.

The numbers are changing quickly, and there are warning signs. The company is confident that it will achieve its target of 2 billion SEK in revenue for the 23/24 fiscal year, which would mean just over 23 percent annual growth. Growth will be driven by opening new marketplaces, growth in already opened fresh marketplaces, new product categories and products, and an increase in average order value.

Pernilla continues as an active board member, responsible for sales and marketing. There were perhaps signs of this change, and I see this as positive.

After today’s price drop, this can now be acquired at a 15-16 P/E valuation.

The earnings webcast was implemented with better quality than before and was pleasant to follow. @ammattiukko’s message includes a link.

The board proposes a dividend of 77 öre for the past fiscal year.

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Great analysis! I’m waiting for Q3/22 to show the resilience of demand before I jump in.
The products might be a bit too durable; mine mainly just fade in the wash even with daily use. That’s why I can easily postpone new purchases for a year, even though I don’t even consider other brands.

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1-7/2022 visits to national parks -12% vs 2021, still +11% vs 2019.

The demand for hiking gear should have gone down at least as much.

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While hikers are certainly a big market, I personally consider these to be everyday clothes. At least I see them quite often in cities. Of course, this is something that one would think would show more in marketing at some point. I’ve been thinking of jumping on board when I feel the price becomes favorable.

At 10, with today’s price and last year’s peak earnings. Not bad anymore.

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This shift away from just the hiking world got confirmation sooner than I expected :slight_smile:

https://www.revolutionrace.fi/collections/descent?sc_src=email_831451&sc_lid=102676006&sc_uid=ZCRl06GMyt&sc_llid=49603&sc_customer=2051185&utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=em-fi-newsl-20220906-descent-seamless

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According to the description, they are suitable for summer hikes, and there have certainly been lounge pants and other items within the broader context of outdoor activities before. I agree with these growth opportunities, however. In addition to geographical growth, there is an opportunity to expand within the outdoor scene by creating tailored collections for hunters, cyclists, climbers, or even paddlers. Sometime later, perhaps through another brand, there are opportunities to expand into an online store for active people, for example.

In addition, the children of outdoor enthusiasts and scout youth still need to be clothed. Hopefully, these can be reacted to, and growth can be continued, even if people’s purchasing power suffers due to inflation.

Information from July indicated that the growth rate has slowed down. Insiders, however, have been buying for a change, and in August someone tweeted:

https://twitter.com/Ekonomilararen/status/1561941102235623424?s=20&t=Z0-HoIgzEwd5FFTBVWcKTA

On the other hand, sales have continued for a worryingly long time.

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There is a possibility that inflation will eat away at purchasing power so much that people won’t be able to afford big purchases, leading to a return to small excursions and new tracksuits…

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Now clothes for young people are coming.

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Alright, I did some market research among my inner circle.
Users are really happy with the products, and most own more than one clothing item. For this reason, I don’t believe the brand will wear out as long as quality isn’t compromised. The collection is kept fresh, and new categories are added regularly.

A potential issue, similar to Crocs, could be that the clothes are too durable: especially the jackets still look like new after 2 years. Therefore, a replacement purchase is likely a consumer discretionary item on a yearly cycle, which can easily be postponed. Perhaps cheaper, faster-wearing items such as base layers, fleeces, and to some extent pants, might not be perceived as items to postpone.

Overall, demand is likely to decrease in the coming months due to:

  • The waning of the hiking boom caused by COVID-19 as long-distance travel increases
  • A partial return to the office, which reduces free time
  • Consumer distress over inflation/energy/recession.

A counter-argument to these points: there’s always time and money for a small hike if nothing else.

I’m really looking forward to the Q3 announcement!

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Bear Grylls seems to be a big fan of RevolutionRace, I wonder what kind of sponsorship deal he has.

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Interim CEO appointed as permanent.

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Publication of RevolutionRace Annual Report and Sustainability Report 2021/22

https://corporate.revolutionrace.com/en/press-releases/publication-of-revolutionrace-annual-report-and-sustainability-report-2021-22/

Net sales +48%

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It will be very interesting to see how sales have gone in the past quarter. The available signals are very contradictory. Those who have ordered are being informed that deliveries are delayed due to rush, but on the other hand, sales have continued from summer to autumn, and new products have not sold out instantly, as has been the custom before. On the other hand, the company has commented that physical storage capacity has improved, which has also enabled larger batches. The interim CEO was allowed to continue in his role, which must also be considered a positive signal. At least the market reacted positively to this.

RevolutionRace now also clothes dogs

My gut feeling is that price increases have been implemented quite well in the collection, excluding discounted products.

I can’t see it now myself. Will there be a shift from premium brands to RevolutionRace, will people shift more towards discount store products, or will they refrain from buying altogether?

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