Does anyone have data on how stock markets in Europe reacted when Trump was elected President of the United States for the first time? If Trump becomes president again, do you believe the market will react the same way? I have one stock purchase in mind, but I’m wondering whether it’s worth waiting until after the election if prices potentially take a hit from a Trump victory. Thanks in advance for the answers. 
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It’s exactly as @Jukka7 clarified: the Americans take in whoever they want, while the rest of us take what we’re offered and what isn’t blocked.
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Here is a chart from the period after the 2016 elections. Following Trump’s election, stock indices in Europe were in a sharp decline, but they turned around and started rising within hours of the result being confirmed. We will certainly see volatility this time as well, but based on history, it is difficult to predict the direction or intensity. Additionally, it must be taken into account that counting the votes (and recounts) could take days, so the winner is by no means necessarily clear as early as Wednesday.
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@Antti_Jarvenpaa and @Marianne_Palmu discussed, among other things, the most important economic indicators and data sources. 
Economic data is flooding in from every source nowadays. What are the most important indicators and data sources that can really be used to assess the direction of the economy? Talouden jäljillä (On the Trail of the Economy) dives into the topic.
It was certainly interesting to listen to.
Topics:
00:00 Start
00:15 “Economic figures are in a constant earnings season”
12:28 Book tip: The Secrets of Economic Indicators
13:58 Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) anticipate economic development
22:02 Surprise indexes measure the difference between actual economic figures and expectations
24:53 VTT’s heat map provides a real-time picture of the Finnish economy’s cyclical situation
27:00 The US employment report always moves the market
32:50 The connection between the stock market and the real economy
35:40 Liquidity drives the market
38:25 Inflation should not be forgotten
42:20 Interest rate expectations are constantly fluctuating
44:58 The most important data sources, starting from the coffee table
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Good morning! Stock markets are trending upwards, at least in the US, as Trump strengthens his position in the presidential race. Here is the first morning comment:
EDIT: The article has been updated with strong service sector readings.
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STOXX600 Futures - Investing.com
Euro Stoxx 600 was in the green but slipped into the red. On this side of the ocean, a lower opening is expected…
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currencies slumped overnight against the dollar
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DAX futures were already down about 1.5%, but are now already in the green, led by the US. An interesting trading day ahead:
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Here is an early preview of tomorrow’s Fed interest rate decision. It looks like there are some unusual shifts on the schedule this week. Welcome to join us online tomorrow
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“The reaction reflects Trump’s campaign promises, most notably tax cuts (positive impact on companies), increased import tariffs (potential inflationary effect), and a simultaneous increase in the federal deficit.”
Musk was indeed of the opinion that the deficit would be reduced by $2 trillion. Clearly, a new economic miracle cure has been discovered, one that is only consumed in the USA. Even the currency is changing to Bitcoin, though Musk might change it to Dogecoin 
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Good morning to the thread!
The Fed’s interest rate decision will be released today at 21:00; I recommend being present around 20:55. Inderes economist Marianne Palmu will be providing live commentary, and we will be following along here in a good spirit.
Any information that adds value for other investors is welcome, but let’s not turn this thread into a chat. You may also ask Marianne questions during the evening; she will respond if time permits. There are a great many readers in the thread, especially at that time, so please think carefully about what you post. 
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More casual conversation here:
https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/inderesin-kahvihuone-osa-9/50229 -
Reactions and shock regarding stocks and the like here:
https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/kurssien-ja-niiden-muutosten-kyselyt-kauhistelut-ja-hehkuttelut-osa-3/43884 -
If you want to express shock at stock market movements during the evening, those messages can also be posted here:
https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/porssin-liikkeet-ja-korjaukset/3756 -
INVESTMENT memes here:
https://keskustelut.inderes.fi/t/inderesin-sijoitusmeemiketju/33791
Marianne:
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Ruotsin keskuspankki laski tänään korkoja odotetusti 0,5 pykälää.
" The bank announced on Thursday morning that it was cutting the rate to 2.75 percent from the 3.25 percent rate which has been in place since October 2nd, following the last rate announcement on September 25th. This is the first double cut to the key interest rate since 2014. It will begin to apply on November 13th."
https://www.thelocal.se/20241107/swedens-riksbank-slashes-rates-with-first-double-cut-in-a-decade
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And the Bank of England, for its part, cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. No surprises there either.
“The BOE’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 in favour of the decision to bring the bank’s key rate to 4.75%.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/07/live-updates-bank-of-england-interest-rate-decision-november.html
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Before the interest rate tracking begins in the Market Direction (Pörssien suunta) thread around 9:00 PM, there is time to listen to Marianne and Antti’s discussions on the macro scene.
Almost unnoticed, economic surprise indices in China and also in the Eurozone have pushed into positive territory. The actual economic figures have thus been better than expected. Marianne and Antti review the global economic situation.
Topics:
00:00 Intro
01:53 Stock market performance
02:41 Hesuli lags behind the rest
06:05 US presidents and stock market performance
07:34 Interest rates are falling, but not as fast
10:44 Global economy
12:50 United States
18:42 Eurozone economy
19:41 Inflation expectations
20:21 Finnish economy
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I dug through my own archives and picked out a couple of heat maps from 2020 in addition to yesterday’s rally. Election day in 2020 was November 3rd, and the S&P 500 saw rallies quite similar to the ones happening now in the days immediately following the election. The following day, November 5, 2020, also delivered a strong rally as Biden won the election then.
Wednesday, November 4, 2020. Megacaps, among others, pulled the market up.
Thursday, November 5, 2020. The rally began to spread more broadly.
Present day and Wednesday, November 6, 2024. Trump wins the election in a landslide, the market opens with a gap up, and Wednesday goes down in the history books as the biggest post-election rally day. (information not fact-checked)
The total rise to the intermediate peak in 2020 was ultimately about +43% from the typical “uncertainty dip” preceding the election. It was, of course, the COVID year, the market was about 45% lower (S&P 500 has risen about +83% since) and significant central bank stimulus was just gaining momentum, so the situation was exceptional in every way. My own expectations are for relatively strong coming weeks with short consolidation phases, possibly at least until the end of November, if no external catalyst is seen before then. The Santa Claus rally could also provide sweet gains, as many stocks are still only in the starting blocks.
Most investors and institutions also engage in tax planning, so making massive position trimmings from ATH levels within this year might not appeal to most, and people generally don’t want to miss out on a rally in full swing. Megacap valuations stretched even further, so we might see some slightly heavier risk-management selling and profit-taking in January or the early part of the year as Trump’s potential tariff war approaches, but there is still plenty of time until then.
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A very good evening to the forum members! Thursday is full of hope, as the saying goes, but perhaps this Thursday is only half that for Jerome Powell. The output of the Fed’s interest rate meeting can be divided into two parts. First, there is the decision itself, which is the easy part: the key interest rate will likely be cut by 25 basis points. It is expected that the same trend will continue in December, at least based on the speeches of Fed members, which have turned in a more dovish direction.
Then there is the second part, namely the questions he will surely be bombarded with at the press conference regarding what Trump’s election as president means for the US inflation outlook, interest costs, and the economy. The chart below models the effects of an escalating trade war on the US growth outlook for the coming years. It shows how escalating tensions with China would be the worst-case scenario for inflation. So, another exciting evening ahead today.
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A 25 basis point cut came
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Let’s take a look at the wording of the decision. Compared to the previous meeting, there are no significant changes at first glance. Economic growth has continued to be stable (unchanged), and inflation is on its way toward the two percent target but remains elevated. Regarding employment, the wording has been slightly changed in a “more dovish direction,” but I don’t see any major concerns here, especially since the next paragraph states that risks are balanced.
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Another good takeaway from Bloomberg: The sentence referring to confidence in slowing inflation (“The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent”) has now been removed. Of course, one could speculate as to why: is there uncertainty about inflation, and do they want to leave the back door open to keeping interest rates unchanged? Certainly, political uncertainty could have led to this, but perhaps we will get an answer to the question during the press conference.
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It’s unlikely that the press conference will provide any hints about the future interest rate path. Rather, I suspect that the Fed will shift to a wait-and-see stance due to political complexities, and this is reflected in market views. For example, Bloomberg reports that Nomura was expecting four policy rate cuts for next year just a while ago, but that expectation has now been trimmed to one. I believe we will see a rate cut in December and a couple next year, but there will certainly be pauses along the way.
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