Having followed Outokumpu’s roller-coaster ride for years and owning a few shares, you kind of start wondering whether management is completely at the mercy of cyclicality. It’s true that times are tough, but the latest guidance, for instance, is baffling—they should have reacted earlier for the investors’ sake. A big minus to Kati and company for this. Guidance just takes the path of least resistance, without aiming for the maximum. Maybe it will still end up somewhere in that 20–40 million range. Cost-cutting measures are hyped year after year, yet they are just normal business operations without the need for fanfare, a very mundane tool. The dividend policy changes every year, and the positive impact of tariffs—maybe not that significant in the long run after all? On the positive side are the projects in Avesta and the EVOLVE strategy in the US. If successful, hopefully they will add value over a multi-year horizon. A major challenge lies ahead, namely profitability at the bottom and the peak of the cycle; they should be ahead of, or at least on par with, the competition.
8 Likes