Keskisuomalainen

Arttu has completed a comprehensive report on Keskisuomalainen, and like other initiation reports, it is available for everyone to read. :slight_smile:

Keskisuomalainen is a media group that has expanded through acquisitions, and its recent earnings turnaround has significantly stabilized the investment story. This investment story relies on a successful digital transition and the adaptation of declining operations, which together, in our estimation, enable moderate long-term earnings growth and generous profit distribution. We reiterate our target price of 10.5, but upgrade our recommendation to Accumulate (previously Reduce) supported by an improved expected return following the share price decline.

Quotes from the report:

Long-term forecasts

According to our assessment, the share of Keskisuomalainen’s digital business will become dominant after 2030. Before this, we forecast a slight decline in revenue, weighed down by the weakening demand for print media. We expect average revenue growth for 2030-33e to be 1%, and 1.5% in the terminal period. The higher growth percentage in the terminal period is supported by 1) the historically high share of digitalization and 2) our confidence in the company’s ability to transform according to trends amidst the transition in the media field. Regarding profitability, we expect Keskisuomalainen’s development to stabilize at approximately 6-7% during the years 2029-2032. In the terminal period, we expect the adjusted EBIT margin to be 6%. Our return requirements (Weighted Average Cost of Capital 9% and Cost of Equity 10%) remained unchanged in connection with the report.