Movie studios and streaming (Disney, Netflix, Warner Bros, Paramount)

Paramount’s Q2 - https://ir.paramount.com/static-files/bdcfccbb-17b8-4bd6-95d5-fdeec95150e9

Analysts are famously as fond of streaming services as they are of AI, so nothing else really gets discussed.

In Q2, we maintained our focus on scaling our streaming platforms, maximizing our traditional business, and building a sustainable business model that will return the company to significant earnings growth in
*2024. *
Notably, Paramount+ revenue grew 47%, total DTC ad revenue increased 21%, and global viewing
hours on Paramount+ and Pluto TV were up 35% year-over-year. *
.

A few highlights:

  • DTC Advertising revenue rose 21%

  • TV Advertising revenue decreased 10%

  • Film revenues decreased 39%, driven by lower theatrical revenues due to the
    release of Top Gun: Maverick in the prior-year period.

The streaming service’s loss for the quarter was $424 million. For the half-year, $935 million. So it will take at least a year before the business becomes profitable.

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I would also highlight from the call that Paramount CEO Bakish seemed for the first time to be publicly open to considering bundling Paramount+ with other streaming services. WBD’s Zaslav has been talking about this for a long time, so perhaps something is finally happening on this front. Max would be an excellent platform for this. From a consumer perspective, this would at least be an excellent direction, and in my opinion, it is also necessary for the entire industry.

Speaking of WBD’s streaming, Max is rumored to be starting live sports broadcasts much earlier than expected, even as early as October.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/07/warner-bros-discovery-targets-max-streaming-sports-tier-for-october.html

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Could Penn then be the one Disney is trying to dump ESPN on? First a partnership, and then a restructuring of ownership.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/disneys-espn-penn-entertainment-ink-15-bln-deal-launch-sports-betting-business-2023-08-08/

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Disney Q3 - semi-ok top and bottom line - https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/app/uploads/2023/08/q3-fy23-earnings.pdf

image

DTC :see_no_evil:

DISNEY + LOST OVER 11.7 MILLION SUBSCRIBERS IN THE LAST 3 MONTHS

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However, as I understand it, those were Hotstar subscriptions that were cancelled in India because of cricket.

While Disney+ core members rose 1% (to 105.7M), subscribers to Disney + Hotstar slid 24% to 40.4M.

Edit. A bit of a soft-looking result at first glance, but not a catastrophe in this situation.

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Even though Hollywood is on strike, the conference call was heavily scripted, and they only talked about things that are going well and could boost the share price, even though the company’s actual situation is very, very worrying.

Disney, among other things, intends to raise streaming service prices and crack down on password sharing. They stated that they intend to pay dividends in the future, and Wall Street certainly likes that. There isn’t really any money for this, but I guess it doesn’t matter much. They were asked about the financing of the Hulu deal, but it was essentially brushed aside and they only talked about everything else.

The reopened theme parks in China saved the quarterly results; otherwise, almost all numbers were terrible, and even though revenue has increased across several lines, inflation and rising costs are destroying the bottom line.

Reading between the lines, it’s clear that the figures have been beautified and accounting tricks used to make the numbers look better, for example:

Restructuring and Impairment Charges
In the current quarter, the Company recorded charges of $2,440 million related to the removal of
content from our DTC services and the termination of certain third party license agreements for the right
to use content primarily on our DTC platforms (Content Impairment Charge) and $210 million of
severance.

Taxes
The current quarter loss from continuing operations before income taxes included the $2,440 million
Content Impairment Charge. Income tax on continuing operations included a benefit of $568 million from
this charge using the Company’s marginal income tax rate of approximately 23%. Due to the significance
of this charge on pre-tax income, our reported effective tax rate for the current quarter is negative 14.2%.
Excluding the impact of this charge, the effective income tax rate on continuing operations would have
been approximately 25.5% compared to 29.1% in the prior-year quarter. The decrease is due to the
following:
• Lower effective tax rates on foreign earnings in the current quarter compared to the prior-year
quarter; and
• A benefit from the comparison of adjustments related to prior years, which was favorable in the
current quarter and unfavorable in the prior-year quarter.

EPS
Diluted earnings per share (EPS) from continuing operations for the quarter was a loss of $0.25
compared to income of $0.77 in the prior-year quarter.
• Excluding certain items(1), diluted EPS for the quarter was $1.03, down from $1.09 in the prioryear quarter.
• EPS from continuing operations for the nine months ended July 1, 2023 decreased to $1.14 from
$1.66 in the prior-year period.

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WBD is potentially hiring former New York Times CEO Mark Thompson to lead CNN. This would be a great hire; Thompson got the NYT into great shape during his time there.

Meanwhile, CNN is bringing news to streaming under the CNN Max brand, within the Max service.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/24/media/cnn-max-streaming/index.html

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I personally still think that CNN should be sold off, as it doesn’t fit naturally with the rest of Warner’s business, but I guess they can keep trying to force it into MAX as a tab.

Bad news from the movie side. The strike continues and will apparently last for a long time, as Dune was moved to next year. Aquaman 2 is still intended for a quiet release this year, and since it’s already been delayed a couple of times, maybe it’s for the best that Amber Heard won’t get to promote her movie.

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/warner-bros-delays-dune-sequel-lord-rings-movie-2023-08-24/

“Dune: Part Two” will now debut on March 15

That’s one way to look at it. Personally, I see that it could work at least on paper if Max included movies, series, news, and sports all in the same package, at different price points of course. Like an old-school cable subscription, but in a digital and more flexible form. Churn might decrease when there’s something important for every family member under the same monthly fee, although these things are hard to assess from the outside.

A few thoughts on Mark Thompson. During Thompson’s time, The New York Times faced a very similar challenge to these media companies now. They had a secularly declining but highly profitable business (print publishing) and a growing but loss-making, poorly monetized business (digital publishing). All other newspapers at the time faced the same challenge. The NYT led by Thompson was the one that survived this challenge clearly the best (below is a snippet from my own NYT Excel). The slow decline of print was accepted, and that business was optimized to generate as much cash flow as possible. Digital publishing was monetized by, among other things, investing in content quality, implementing a then-innovative flexible paywall, and creating its own advertising platform. For media companies, the equivalent businesses are cable and streaming. The NYT case is certainly being studied in every media company right now, and getting Thompson himself in-house would be a great thing for WBD.

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The strikes are ongoing, and the studios’ latest proposal to the writers was not enough for the union; instead, they walked out of the negotiations. The studios decided, in “retaliation,” to publish their proposal through the media, and although the fight over AI and quotas continues, attention is shifting to pay levels.

Los Angeles is a very expensive city, but it was a bit of a surprise to me at least that these writers earn nearly $10,000 per week, plus bonuses and residuals on top.

On top of wage increases, a 15% increase in minimum weekly rates for Article 14 writers (other than Story Editors or Executive Story Editors) in the first year of the agreement with further general wage increases in the second and third years of the agreement. This would take a writer from:
** $9,888/week to $11,371/week for guarantees of up to 9 weeks;*
** $8,240/week to $9,476/week for guarantees of 10-19 weeks; and*
** $7,412/ week to $8,524/week for guarantees of 20-29 weeks (all are 15% increases)*

High Budget SVOD Residual Increases
Total worldwide (domestic and foreign) residuals would increase from $72,067 to $87,546 per episode for 3 exhibition years.

Guaranteed Minimum Employment in Development Rooms
The Companies have redefined the economics of the development room by offering both a minimum length of employment (regardless of weeks worked) and a new and improved compensation structure for High Budget SVOD and pay television series and serials. Writers in a development room will now be guaranteed a minimum of 10 weeks of employment

The studios would also be prepared for the first time to share information on actual viewership numbers on streaming services.

Unprecedented Data Transparency
Subscription Video On Demand (SVOD) services commit to giving the WGA data as to the total aggregate number of minutes a High Budget SVOD Program is viewed and the program’s total running time on a quarterly basis.

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HBO Max’s rebranding to Max seems to have gone well. According to a study published today, the service’s value in the eyes of consumers has practically not declined at all after the name change, even though many expected it due to the removal of the HBO name associated with quality.

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It hasn’t dropped because, ever since the final season of Game of Thrones, it’s already been scraping so deep below rock bottom that the support level holds even if the whole joint is one big dumpster fire…

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HBO is still the so-called Gold standard of television.

Right after Game of Thrones, Chernobyl was released, which can be considered one of the best miniseries of all time. Recently, they’ve released Succession, The Last of Us, and House of the Dragon. HBO has the most nominations in the upcoming Emmy gala, and most of the awards are already almost certain; the quality hasn’t declined in any way. The brand is still strong, it’s trusted, and it sells.

MAX is a stupid name, but whatever if the general public accepts it. In the spring, it’s finally coming to Finland too, and it’ll be interesting to see how the Discovery trash and Eurosport are combined into the service here in the Nordics.

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Confirmation of this rumor.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/30/business/media/cnn-mark-thompson-ceo.html

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All media companies are dropping sharply today, for two reasons as I see it.

Disney has run into disputes with cable companies, which are starting to get fed up with the rising fees demanded by channels and the restrictions included in the agreements.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/01/disney-charter-battle-over-spectrum-blackout.html

And Taylor Swift is coming from outside the studios to take over most of the theater screens and box office revenue. This concert film has already broken all pre-sale records.

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I have understood the reason for Disney’s downward spiral to be a significant decline in the quality of productions; massive amounts of money are being burned, resulting in a polished surface while the content is forgotten. It’s a classic case of corporate bloat and has nothing to do with ideology.

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As a result of the negative impact of the strike and the positive impact of Barbie’s success, WBD lowered its EBITDA guidance while simultaneously raising its free cash flow guidance for the current year.

WBD’s filing said it was now “expecting lower adjusted EBITDA” for the full year in the range of $10.5-$11 billion, “reflecting the company’s assumption that adjusted EBITDA will be negatively impacted by approximately $300 million-$500 million, predominantly due to the impact of the strikes.”
The company also raised its free cash flow expectations for the full year to at least $5 billion. “Further, the company now expects to exceed $1.7 billion in free cash flow for the third quarter of 2023, in part due to the strong performance of Barbie as well as incremental impact from strike-related factors,” the filing said.

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I don’t know about it being a surprise announcement, but it’s probably quite sensible not to run several services.

– The new MTV Katsomo is a viewing platform for the whole of Finland. We are now bringing all our beloved content into one service, one address, and behind a single login. We are also unifying our brands as part of the familiar MTV brand family. Viewing of MTV’s streaming services has seen fantastic growth this year, and this strategic change enables us to continue that growth, says MTV’s CEO Johannes Leppänen.

Two tiers in pricing, with ads and without ads. However, you’ll have to pay more for sports than before. Competition is intensifying, and surely fewer and fewer people will subscribe to several different services at the same time.

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The agreement between Disney and Comcast has been modified so that the decision on Hulu’s fate will begin as early as the end of this month. So, we will have answers soon.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/06/comcast-disney-move-up-deadline-to-decide-hulu-future-ownership.html

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CNBC has done extensive investigative journalism on Disney management’s actions. The article is very very long and reading the full story will take some time. Everyone can draw their own conclusions, but based on the article, Iger will likely remain in charge of Disney forever (until he gets fired).

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/06/disney-succession-mess-iger-chapek.html?&qsearchterm=disney

Disney has also launched a global campaign aimed at maximizing Disney+ user numbers for the next quarterly report. It smells a bit like user numbers are down when such an aggressive campaign is launched, but I jumped on the offer myself, as the price-quality ratio was right.

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