Solar energy - where to invest?

To my delight, I noticed that the solar sector hasn’t sparked any discussion. It’s probably no secret that technology is constantly developing and costs are continuously coming down. Globally, wind and solar power produce the cheapest megawatts in favorable production areas.

In the media, the discussion focuses solely on panels. Panels are pure bulk commodities, and the Chinese have steamrolled the market with their efficient production. Nothing interesting from an investor’s perspective. However, solar systems also require other components, and so far, significantly more money has been made with inverters. Apparently, patents/technology matter more, and companies in the industry have more pricing power.

Huawei is a strong player in these areas too, but Israel also knows its stuff. SolarEdge just released its results and is guiding for 60-70 percent growth for the upcoming quarter. An acquaintance designs/installs commercial systems and praised the company’s products, which encouraged me to buy shares. Enphase has also brought completely new technology to the market, and growth has exploded in recent quarters. SolarEdge has been in my portfolio for a longer time, and I bought Enphase for a few hundred to follow it. I should have bought more, as the stock price has risen by something like 400 percent since last year.

I should have written about this earlier if I had been active on the forum, but better late than never for future reference. Markets are growing, but subsidy policies and cycles cause volatility in the markets at regular intervals. Installation volumes have been growing strongly after a small dip, and this is also reflected in company stock prices. Perhaps one can still get in, but stock prices seem to be very volatile in their movements. Cycles come and go quickly, but the quickest might manage to pick up industry companies cheaply.

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Enphase earnings…

Our third quarter revenue was $180.1 million, including approximately $8.0 million of safe harbor revenue. Third quarter revenue increased 34% sequentially and 131% year-over year. We shipped approximately 584 megawatts DC, or 1,795,653 microinverters. Demand was strong as our customers continued to appreciate our differentiated products, services and quality. We effectively stabilized our component supply in the third quarter of 2019.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17679117-enphase-energy-reports-financial-results-third-quarter-2019

The numbers are like something out of a video game, and the outlook is good. The company will be offering an off-grid system early next year, which will undoubtedly be in demand. Looking at the California fires and the utility company’s actions, demand for these systems will grow in good production areas.

Still, the stock has come down significantly in pre-market trading. It has also come down from its highs, so I thought the purchase prices would gradually be at a good level.

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In addition to manufacturers, operators are also interesting. I was with the Norwegian Scatec Solar for a while, but then in the fall I foolishly cashed out my profits when it looked like it was starting to dip. Since then, it has already rocketed about 20%

This is an interesting field in my opinion and will certainly grow in the future, so if there are good picks, I’m definitely interested.

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I did quite a bit of research on different companies about two years ago when I started investing, and solar energy was almost the first thing on my mind. At that time, I ended up investing in two companies: Enphase and SunPower. Enphase turned out to be quite a goldmine for a budding investor. I started following the stock when the price was under two dollars. My first purchases were made at just over three dollars a share. Since then, the rise has been quite significant, peaking around 35 dollars. I was luckily in the right place at the right time, as the company experienced a turnaround with a change in management. On the other hand, I had thoroughly researched the company’s products, which was the main reason I jumped into Enphase, so that well-proven choice was also to my credit.

SunPower, however, hasn’t really gone anywhere in terms of stock price, and I no longer own shares in that company. SunPower might make some of the highest-efficiency solar panels available, but at least when I invested in them, they were involved in a bit too much. Nowadays, they’ve focused more on the Residential (consumer) side with panels, which I think is a good choice. Enphase and SunPower are now collaborating. SunPower is one of those panel manufacturers whose panels have Enphase microinverters attached to the back, and then they’re sold as a package. However, I’ve come to realize that solar panel manufacturers aren’t very interesting. There’s too much competition, and good quality panels are made in China with small margins. The average consumer is primarily interested in price, not the panels’ better efficiency.

What has interested me most about solar energy is the Residential side. Certain companies clearly specialize in different scales of solar power plants, and I’m not that enthusiastic about companies that focus on large MW-scale solar power plants. In the future, more and more homes will have solar panels on their roofs, and I want to invest in companies that are involved in precisely that field. Two years ago, I chose Enphase for this very reason. The increasing prevalence of electric cars also supports the rise of solar panels, as it’s convenient to charge cars with the electricity they produce. Of course, the sun doesn’t shine at night when cars are most often stationary, but the batteries connected to these systems are constantly improving and are being integrated into systems more and more often.

I could write a lot about Enphase, but I might even be a bit biased about the company because I like it so much. Its biggest competitor, SolarEdge, has also done well, but I wouldn’t want to invest in them out of principle due to their different inverter technology. I intend to stay with Enphase for a long time, and good things are coming this year too. Other interesting Residential (consumer-side) companies I’ve considered at some point have been Sunrun and Vivint Solar, which install solar panel systems on people’s roofs. Customers can order the entire system from them, including installation, and there are various ownership models for the panels to choose from.

One company that interested me at some point is also Daqo, a large Chinese monocrystalline manufacturer. The stock price crashed quite a bit when the trade war started, but now it’s been going up again. This stock fluctuates quite a lot daily and would probably be a good choice if you like to dabble in day trading.

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JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd ADR. Any opinions on this? For those who know more about these cells. I somehow feel like jumping in on this one. The stock price is quite high now, but if you follow the news flow, they do have a lot of momentum on the order side.

Someone surely knows more about this specific panel company, but as I stated earlier, I don’t personally find panel manufacturers very interesting targets. There’s a lot of competition, and margins are small because of it. Many small manufacturers (and some larger ones) have gone bankrupt this millennium. It’s difficult for any single company to become a clear winner, which is why I don’t find them appealing. My gut feeling is that these large companies will rise or fall together with other panel manufacturers according to the industry outlook. Someone would have to invent some revolutionary new panel technology for bigger moves to happen.

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Given current information, do you think Enphase still has a lot of upside potential?
According to an article published today, it has reached analysts’ target price.
I’d be interested in jumping in, but has it already risen too much?

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/enphase-energy-reaches-analyst-target-price-2020-01-10

I’ve been following the company daily for a couple of years. We’re currently pretty close to the ATH price. Last time we came down significantly, it was really hard and about 50% dropped from those ATH figures in a short time. There was no reasonable explanation for that. I think massive shorting was involved. It hasn’t been long since I last added myself at $19 prices.

The next earnings report is probably still over a month away (probably late February), so there’s still quite a long time to wait. No one can say anything for sure about these short-term movements, but if I were investing my own money, I’d wait for some kind of crash closer to $20 prices before buying.

I’ve been wondering what would be the right moment to sell these shares. We’re not quite at the peaks yet, but not very far either. Probably if we went up a few more dollars from there, for example, in the next couple of weeks, I might put mine up for sale. I think at some point a new wave of shorting will hit again and the price will come down. But this is just speculation. The goal would, of course, be to buy those shares back cheaper and take some profits along the way. I’m skeptical that prices above $30 would remain “permanently.”

In the long run, there’s certainly room for growth; the best product, IQ8, is yet to come, which is why I mainly invested in this in the first place. My outlook with the company is at least a few years away; the game is just beginning.

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ENPH hasn’t dropped below the $30 mark yet, and I’m still on board myself. It’s quite interesting that over 8 million shares were traded in yesterday’s after-hours session.

I can’t find today’s Goldman Sachs news anymore, where they believed these four have the most potential for growth.
First Solar, Enphase Energy, SunRun, and SunPower.
All were down just now. Could it be a buying opportunity?
What do you think?

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Bottom fishing would be best for SunPower

At least on January 13, such an article was available for reading via Seeking Alpha.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4316553-2020-solar-preview-part-2-sunpowers-upside-leads-u-s-listed-western-manufacturers&source=email_must_read:position_3&ifp=0?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

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SunPower makes good solar panels and is definitely undervalued in some way. That’s a good choice in that sense, I once owned it myself. These same few names are always on those “5 solar stocks to buy” lists and so on. Solar energy will definitely grow again this year, so it’s a good sector to be involved in. ENPH has an interesting year ahead with new products.

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SunPower: I bought it because I believe it has the most upside potential.

Solar energy has done very well in recent days and weeks. Enphase’s stock is already over 40 dollars and SunPower is up 11% today. Many companies in the sector currently have their highest stock prices in years. SunPower’s earnings will be released today after the market closes. ENPH earnings on the 18th.

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I have bought Scatec for my portfolio. It pays a small but growing dividend. The share price has risen sharply in recent months, but in my opinion, the valuation is still not completely outrageous.

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Enphase released good Q4 results.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/enphase-energy-reports-financial-results-210510652.html

Now, from this link, you can read the new Seeking Alpha blog post about the company written by TJ Roberts, which I previously mentioned in another thread:
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/38410276-tj-roberts/5407050-enphase-energy-multiplicity-wins

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Excellent blog post.
Great technology from Enphase.

I am personally interested in MUPS (Micro Uninterruptible Power Supply) hydrogen energy companies.
NEL is of particular interest.
In my opinion, hydrogen produced with solar energy is the future.

Enphase seems very interesting.
Their battery technology has been perfected.
I will probably acquire it next.

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When investing in these solar panel and inverter manufacturers, it’s worth remembering that the industry is very competitive. There are a huge number of manufacturers, and a large portion of them are Chinese.

JKS is in my portfolio, and it’s quite liquid, so I also do short trades with it.