Toyo Solar the next multibagger?

This is an interesting and relatively new player in the solar energy sector. Toyo Solar was founded only at the end of 2022, but the company has scaled its business exceptionally aggressively and subsequently listed on the US stock market.

The company’s majority shareholder is the Japanese publicly listed Abalance Corporation, which, following the June share issue, owns approximately 72% of Toyo’s shares through its subsidiaries. This means the company’s float is about 28%. Furthermore, if all warrants issued in June are exercised, Abalance’s ownership will be approximately 65% and the float approximately 35%. There are 46.8 million shares in total.

The timing of the listing was strongly linked to the US market: the Inflation Reduction Act, signed in August 2022, included approximately $400 billion in investments in clean energy, which created a huge demand spike. At the same time, the company wanted to respond to import restrictions in various countries by moving from external procurement of cells to in-house manufacturing and by strengthening its vertically integrated supply chain. The US stock market listing and the later Texas factory support the “American-made” strategy and meeting local content requirements for solar energy projects in the US.

Toyo is a vertically integrated operator that aims to cover the entire production chain from wafers to solar cells and further to finished solar panels (PV modules). Currently, the company has 2 GW of solar cell production capacity in Vietnam, a 4 GW factory in Ethiopia, and a 1 GW assembly plant in Houston, USA. From September 2026, Houston Phase 2 will increase capacity to 2 GW.

However, the most interesting part of the investment story relates to its ongoing conquest of the United States.

In early June, Toyo announced it would build a second, 1.5 GW production facility in the Houston area in Texas. The total value of the investment is approximately $357 million. The factory will be located on the same site as the current assembly plant.

At the same time, the company announced two new supply agreements for the US market, with a total value of $185.6 million.

The company launched its own 1 GW solar module factory in Houston in October 2025. This means that some of the solar panels sold in the US are already being assembled locally, although the cells used in them are still imported.

The US solar cell market is currently heavily protected against low-cost Chinese production through tariffs and other trade policy measures.

In addition, solar cells manufactured in the United States are covered by the Section 45X tax credit, which significantly improves the competitiveness of domestic production.
Section 45X (Advanced Manufacturing Production Credit) is part of the US Inflation Reduction Act. It provides the manufacturer with a tax credit for every solar industry component produced in the United States, such as solar cells and modules.

For solar cells, the credit has been $0.04 per watt produced. In practice, this means: 1 GW = 1 billion watts => $0.04 × 1 billion watts = $40 million per year. In other words, the new 1.5 GW US factory will receive $60 million per year in tax credits alone.

In Toyo’s case, I don’t think the market is yet fully pricing in the fact that the company is moving from mere module assembly to actual solar cell manufacturing in the United States. Cell production is currently one of the most valuable links in the solar industry in the US market, as domestic production qualifies for significant 45X tax credits.

However, the most interesting part of the whole thing are the figures below.



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Interesting, I have to ask before I start looking into the company more deeply, what kind of wrinkle has appeared in the story lately, considering the direction the stock price is headed…

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The share price dropped after June 24th, when the company announced a new 50 million share offering, which caused a dilution of approximately 12% in the share capital.

The reason for the share price drop was the share structure of the offering without a lock-up period. That is, $11 per share + $13.20 warrant. This meant that a large portion of those who participated in the offering sold their shares immediately.

In addition, the company’s float after the offering is approximately 28% of the total share capital. The Japanese publicly traded company Abalance Corporation owns approximately 72% of the company.

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Below is a video about the company.

A question that piques an investor’s interest is: why are the company’s valuation multiples so cheap? Now that the dilution from the share issue has taken place and been priced in, the valuation multiples are still extremely low. The share price has apparently plummeted due to selling pressure, but even so. Is there some glaring reason why Mr. Market is assigning the company a P/E ratio of 3 with those financial metrics? At the pre-issue share price, the P/E was around 8.

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I have been pondering this as well, but these micro-cap stocks often have these kinds of pricing errors. There is certainly all sorts of insider selling and the like here. If that U.S. import ban on China holds up, their future looks rosy indeed. Large orders are definitely coming in from customers, with some in the range of 80m per customer.

What I believe is keeping the share price down is that 200-250m funding gap needed to finance the U.S. factory, which is set to be completed in 2028 and costs 357m. Since 80% of the company’s revenue now comes from the United States, that factory is essential for business continuity.

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I consider the patent dispute initiated by First Solar to be the single biggest risk in TOYO’s investment case at the moment.

First Solar filed a complaint in February 2026, which led the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) to launch an official Section 337 investigation in March 2026, titled Certain TOPCon Solar Cells, Modules, Panels, Components Thereof (Inv. No. 337-TA-1494). The respondents include, among others, TOYO Co., Ltd., TOYO Solar Texas LLC, and VSUN Solar USA.

First Solar alleges that the respondents’ products based on TOPCon technology infringe upon its patents and is primarily seeking a so-called General Exclusion Order (GEO). If granted, this would be a highly significant ruling, as it could prevent the import of all TOPCon products deemed to infringe on these patents into the United States, regardless of the manufacturer. Alternatively, First Solar is seeking a more limited exclusion order as well as cease-and-desist orders against the respondents.

As of now, no ruling has been issued in the case, and the USITC has not taken a stance on the substance of the allegations. TOYO’s products continue to be imported into the United States normally.

The risk to TOYO is significant, as approximately 80% of the company’s revenue comes from the United States. Although the factory located in Texas assembles modules locally, the cells are still imported from Vietnam and Ethiopia. A potential import ban would target these very cells, so the current production model does not offer protection against this risk.

What makes the situation particularly interesting is that First Solar itself does not use TOPCon technology at all. The company’s own technology is based on CdTe thin-film cells, but it has acquired TOPCon patents through acquisitions and is now using them against its competitors.

This is not the first patent dispute surrounding TOYO. JinkoSolar challenged the TOYO–VSUN–Abalance group regarding TOPCon patents back in December 2024, but the parties reached a settlement at the end of 2025, and the lawsuits were withdrawn in early 2026.

In my own view, however, a complete GEO ruling is unlikely. TOPCon is currently the world’s leading solar cell technology, and a general import ban would affect a significant portion of U.S. panel imports. More likely alternatives could be a settlement, licensing agreements, challenging the patents, or a more limited order concerning only certain operators.

Section 337 cases typically last about 16–18 months, so a decision is estimated to arrive in late 2027. Interestingly, at the same time, TOYO is pursuing an HJT cell factory in Houston. This may turn out to be a strategically very important move, as HJT is a different cell structure and does not fall under the scope of the TOPCon patents. If patent risks regarding TOPCon increase, the HJT factory could effectively serve as an insurance policy for TOYO against this very scenario.

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In addition to the patent dispute, Toyo is being accused of using Chinese-made silicon wafers in their solar panels. According to the company itself, the country of origin for the wafers and the materials used in them is the USA along with a few Southeast Asian countries, and the manufacturing of the panels is said to take place in Ethiopia. However, the accusations claim this is not true and that Toyo is using these measures to circumvent tariffs imposed on China. If the matter is investigated and Toyo is found guilty, it could result in retroactive customs duties, which would, in turn, have a very significant impact on both the financing of the Houston factory construction and the realized earnings, and consequently on the stock’s valuation multiples.

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The DoC had 30 days to decide whether to initiate the investigation. The petition was filed on May 12, 2026, and the Department of Commerce had 30 days to decide on launching the investigation—meaning the deadline was around June 11, 2026. The deadline has therefore passed nearly a month ago, but there is no confirmation from either side in public sources: there is no news regarding the official launch of an investigation, nor its rejection. In other words, an official decision has not yet been published in either direction.

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Here is a good analysis of the company.

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A very interesting observation from the Q1/2026 conference call. The company is forecasting a net income of 90-100m for this year, but the 45X tax credits have not been included in that net income forecast.
The estimated income from those credits for this year is at least $70m, and with full 2GW capacity, $140m. The current plant should be running at full capacity starting from Q3/2026.



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As for the price development of Toyo, its stock follows the index quite strongly. Regarding the performance of that index, the return has been pretty dismal over the last 5 years.



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Google has committed to purchasing the entire output of a solar power plant currently under construction. The agreement below may serve as a catalyst for the U.S. solar energy industry.

The plant’s capacity is 2.5 GW of solar power and 2.9 GWh of battery storage.

First Solar will serve as the panel supplier.

https://www.ft.com/content/e9db6384-b295-4ab2-96bf-55025db9ee1d?syn-25a6b1a6=1

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Good and bad news regarding this. The bad first: the U.S. Department of Commerce is launching the expected investigation into Toyo’s imports to determine whether Chinese components are being used in its products.

https://addisstandard.com/u-s-launches-investigation-into-solar-cell-imports-from-ethiopia-over-alleged-tariff-circumvention/#google_vignette

Then, the good news. The new CFO, who started in July, owns over 1 million shares through their company. Apparently, that Notam Co has been a shareholder in Toyo since the IPO.

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I believe that Toyo has likely been aware of the Department of Commerce’s investigation for a long time, given that Rhone Resch started as the company’s Chief Strategy Officer on March 31, 2026.

According to LinkedIn, he is a political operator, not what you would call a professional manager.

He is apparently working under a consulting contract, as there is no mention of Toyo on his LinkedIn profile.