Nordea indeed slashed the target price of Vendi—a partial competitor and peer of Alma Media—in one fell swoop by nearly 60% (from NOK 315 to 130). The reasoning behind this is the advent of AI & AI agents, along with their potential disruption to online marketplaces (cars, recruitment, etc.), which are also core breadwinners for Alma.
The baseline situation is that a car buyer, job seeker, or similar customer typically visits a website they know. Nordea reportedly stress-tested this against AI agents and found that the customer’s primary relationship with the online marketplace could shift to the agent instead. The agent, in turn, operates extensively across the entire market offering of the sought-after product/service, which relatively weakens the position of individual online marketplaces. Control over customer traffic shifts from marketplaces to consumer AI systems, further reducing the appeal of the former as advertising platforms.
This particular analysis by Nordea has sparked quite a debate among analysts. For instance, investment bank Arctic ran similar AI tests on online marketplaces and believes that agents and the like will, on the contrary, grow the customer base for these platforms. Its new target price for Vendi Marketplace is NOK 380, compared to Nordea’s NOK 130.
Who is right? Will Alma’s marketplaces be disrupted as well, or will they become even stronger? Here are 5 pieces to the puzzle:
- AI streamlines operations for online marketplace companies like Alma and Vendi. This is already visible.
- Alma has a lot more than just marketplaces, and its other segments—like media—provide synergies for reaching consumers.
- Alma Media is a successful example of a company that, despite a partial legacy starting point (print media), succeeded in its tech transition (digitization). This provides strong foundations for gliding into the AI era.
- Still, there is no reason to completely write off Nordea’s perspective either. In the midst of a tech whirlwind, it is difficult to predict consumer behavior with 100% certainty, and AI tools expand both possibilities.
- Even if disruption does not materialize and Alma primarily reaps tech-driven benefits, one AI-related hit is already visible: if there are even suspicions of AI disruption hovering over a sector or company, it dampens share price performance. The market thinks that even if the AI disruption bogeyman isn’t visible today, “What if it shows up someday anyway?”
In Alma’s case, across the axes of business enablers and risks, I have arrived at the following conclusion: amidst this tech whirlwind, Alma could become even more profitable, but risk levels have also ticked up due to AI—at least by a fraction. Time will tell!