The future of VaItion nimeltä Suomi Oy AB

My own feelings are mixed – on the one hand, I see that Finland has the keys to putting its economy on a sustainable footing. On the other hand, when one follows the political dialogue, one gets the impression that competitiveness and sustainability are overshadowed by increased borrowing and social spending. It also seems that measures to ensure competitiveness are only taken when absolutely necessary. No one wants to be the one to carry out the painful measures.

It will be interesting to see how the globally worsening dependency ratio is solved in different countries. I believe that increasing work-based immigration and student numbers, supporting businesses’ employment conditions, and cutting social security costs are the ways to tackle this – the first two determine how large the cuts will ultimately need to be.

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Here’s some interesting facts from a private investor’s point of view.

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{“content”:“For my part, I’d be happy to slap a pretty robust progressive tax on capital gains. One that would comfortably take us to #1 on the list.”,“target_locale”:“en”}

In 2011, the Katainen government began, and it has apparently taken good care of raising taxes.

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I must also add that I hope the collapse of the USA will have a similar effect on Finnish politics as the Soviet Union did in the 90s. When there was no need to fear (read: take into account) the red color anymore, the “Little America” LARP quickly began on the stages of the parliament. Under that pretext, pieces have been nibbled away from everything over the years; such as post, education, and healthcare. Now that we get to witness a truly Biblical destruction of Babylon from the sidelines, I hope even the most hardened worshipper of mammon here realizes that every soul must be taken care of, and only then do we think about profits.

(I do not deny that modernization and reform in the public sector would be in order, so in that sense, the pursuit of efficiency and savings has been understandable. I consider the collapse of America inevitable, regardless of who wins the elections. The social order will never recover from this year unless something fundamentally changes.)

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However, if you think about it from an individual’s perspective, a place of residence is just one competition, unless one feels an obligation to stay in that particular place. It’s about weighing the pros and cons. In Finland, the older generation controls politics, and I am very skeptical of their ability to make any radical decisions that the Finland of the future would need.
My line of reasoning is that even if I believed Finland has the potential to be an excellent place to live in the future, such policies can never be implemented in this Finland. Will previous generations leave Finland in better shape than they found it, is perhaps the main question? How much more will their children receive through public services than they themselves did, and in how much safer and more cohesive a society will they live? In my opinion, the level of well-being in Finland has peaked, and we will now have to cut from the current levels. The older generations will not agree to this, and then money will start to be burned. How many children get peace and space, personal instruction, or snacks in schools as before? How many years will a basic worker have to work to buy a suitable house for their family in the capital region? Can a parent send their child to school alone without worries? In my opinion, that certain point has already been passed, and from now on, it’s downhill. As a realist, I then think about the next best option, which is keeping doors open in all directions. Where do you get the most value for your money?
Finally, I would say that the country itself doesn’t mean that much to me; the Finnish people are much more important. I firmly believe that the people have been a much more essential factor in our success story, rather than our piece of land. Regards, a young lawyer

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And in the previous one, Katainen was messing up as the Minister of Finance. Tax cuts were promised in the elections, but once they got into the ministerial Audi, they couldn’t deliver because “the economy might overheat.”

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“Such a policy can never be implemented in Finland.”
Amen.

The majority of comments probably crystallize around the short-sightedness and poor decision-making of current politics. Of course, politics is a mirror of the nation: We Finns have voted ourselves into this situation.

When it comes to politics, cuts and privatizations are perfectly fine when implemented well and done properly in appropriate situations. Most often, this is not the case; instead, interest group politics lead to, for example, regional policies or concessions for their own target group. The world is becoming more complex, so there’s no sign that misleading voters will decrease. Stress among the working population, in general, has increased in Western countries, and politics is, in my experience, followed less. It is said that young people are more active than before, but politics no longer features analytical insights like those of Osmo Soinivaara.
The aging population votes for conservative parties, which is one problem for a radical shift in political direction.

But we have a whole host of other problems besides politics:
-Historically, we’ve had unemployment among doctors and highly educated individuals, even though these are precisely the people who should be driving the economy.
-In primary schools, special needs students are integrated into regular classrooms, where behavioral issues significantly disrupt the education of others.
-Finnish universities are mediocre globally, so the successor to Nokia is only likely to emerge here with a small probability, because ambitious talents go elsewhere rather than staying in leveling Finland.
-I have experienced that university teaching material can somewhat be the same as in top European universities, but courses are easy, for example, because students are passed easily since the university gets money for it. Top universities are multinational pressure cookers where students learn to learn, solve problems, and tolerate stress. Here, you can go to any university for even 7 years without any worries, and extensions are often granted just by asking.
-Because politics is generally perceived as dirty and unrewarding work, fewer smart economic experts go into it.
-Rich and young employees are well aware of Finland’s moral and economic decline and pension burden. As a solution, they establish a company through which income tax progression can be bypassed by taking salary as dividends. Some are considering a plan-B… The losers in income tax increases are precisely the middle class because they do not have the opportunity to work through a company. Progression then eats away at the middle class’s savings.
-The nation’s ethics are skewed: It’s presented that well-being comes first, then money. This has been brought up countless times during the corona pandemic, but equally so before corona. In reality, money specifically creates well-being. One could even argue that money is well-being: Money can increase healthcare resources, hire more nurses, etc. The leftist ideology that “income inequality is absolutely evil and well-being is the primary priority” is too deeply rooted in voters’ thinking.

I personally still feel that family, friends, cabins, and such are important enough anchors for me to stay here. But I will eventually force my own children to study languages (in addition to primary and high school, because school education has not been nearly enough for anyone I know or for myself) and push them to study abroad. I assume that Finland will not “collapse” because such changes are slow. However, I might also start planning a Plan B myself if the situation begins to erode at an alarming rate.

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And indeed, I also have shares that I’ve thought about holding until retirement. At least it’s certain that I’ll get something.

Regarding politics, many solutions and ideas have been presented. The political system could also be changed, for example, the Swedish model (where the party sets the order of candidates) or weighting the votes of young people/working people or something similar.

The will for change won’t be found until the last minute, when “bad news is good news.” Therefore, unfortunately, one might even hope that the economy quickly enters a crisis as factories, businesses, and prominent figures move abroad. In such a situation, the corrective action would be swift, like during the coronavirus epidemic.
The worst is a slow decline, a gradual erosion of our society, because then it’s difficult to promote change.
Someone knowledgeable in history/sociology could analyze when this corrective action would come. In 10 years, possibly 20 years?

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It is worth benchmarking the systems of other countries and bringing functional solutions to Finland as well. However, in my opinion, all kinds of list elections are primarily a contempt for democracy and reduce citizens’ interest in politics. Already, a large part of the theoretical power of Members of Parliament is actually held by party elites, and MPs are forced to vote according to the party line on substantive issues, even if they disagree with the matters themselves. With list elections, politicians would have to curry favor with the party’s decision-makers to ensure their high ranking on electoral lists. Voters would not be able to influence the party’s line by voting for a candidate within the party who pursues suitable policies.

Finland has a huge number of different subsidies, regulations, etc., many of which directly and indirectly affect each other. In this jungle, there is certainly much room for improvement and simplification. Housing support has grown and grown over the years and at the same time passivates people by encouraging them to live “expensively”; the more expensive the rental apartment you live in, the more the state supports you. This can be combined with the Finnish custom where subsidies, benefits, fees, etc., depend on the place of residence. The state leaves a lot of discretion to municipalities and cities, but why does the threshold to take on work in society depend on whether one lives in Helsinki, Ivalo, or Kotka (size of housing support, municipal supplements for home care allowance, municipal tax percentage, size of day care fees, etc.)?

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This development didn’t come as a surprise to anyone, but the direction and impact are frightening. Hopefully, 2021 and beyond will be brighter.

I probably still belong to the younger generation of investors classified by @Masse, but the current government cannot be blamed for the state of Finland. This bed has been made by the National Coalition Party (Kokoomus), the Centre Party (Keskusta), and the Social Democrats (Demarit) all being in power. No one in power has addressed how to significantly increase industrial investments in Finland.

The current government parties and I have many differing opinions, but there’s no denying how quickly the government intervened in this crisis and started stimulating companies with borrowed money. This hasn’t been purely left-wing propaganda under Marin’s leadership.

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There may be parties in the government who see the decline of heavy industry as a positive thing from the perspective of emissions. Finland will achieve its so-called ambitious climate goals faster and can morally radiate. The fact that jobs are lost and the national economy deteriorates is another matter. Perhaps the creative industry, etc., will compensate for this loss :wink: I mean, 1:1.

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So one grant artist per closed factory? I’m sure this will work out.

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Hmm, perhaps there’s a bit of a fallacy here where if a lie is repeated often enough, it becomes the truth. In this case, the lie is that we have right-wing parties. We don’t; from the National Coalition Party onwards, they are all on the left side of the spectrum, some less, some more. You are absolutely right that this mess has been brewing for countless governments with different compositions. The fundamental problem is that in Finland, nothing but left-wing politics is practiced, where money comes from a magic wall. As long as this left-wing paradise is maintained, we will have the problem that it’s not worth investing in Finland in the big picture because the friction in the wheels of business is too great due to taxes and bureaucracy. The current political system cannot do anything about it (because all parties are left-wing parties) but will gradually choke on its own impossibility, though it will certainly take time.

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We do have a liberal party :wink:

They seem to have a good idea, but the journey to becoming a seriously considered parliamentary party is still ongoing. This, of course, doesn’t prevent one from voting. :slight_smile:

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Here, in my opinion, is an excellent example of ideological economic policy, where climate change (and anti-car sentiment) is used to justify the need for taxes. I feel sorry for the low- and median-income working individual, who would face a new cost of working. Or else the employer would have to raise wages by an amount equivalent to the taxable benefit, and the competitiveness pact (kiky) would suffer. The tax wedge has been discussed for decades. This (either) would not remove it.

“Although there are significant problems associated with determining the taxable value of parking benefits, leaving the benefit completely untaxed cannot be considered a satisfactory situation if income taxation aims to reduce transport emissions.”

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Is this the opening move from the forest industry, with other sectors following suit?

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It still hasn’t become clear to me why local bargaining would be a better option than central union bargaining. Central union bargaining makes the rules clear to everyone, and companies don’t have to individually fight with each employee over their salary. Local bargaining will only lead to a decrease in wages in sectors where there is a large supply of employees, whereas salaries in expert work are unlikely to increase, as they are probably not negotiated with the help of central unions anyway.

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It’s better for someone, or someone believes it is. Almost regardless of the issue, any change is always better for someone.

Perhaps wages will start to fall, but that’s not the end of the show. Misery increases resistance, and those who are beaten often fight back. Confrontation is likely a good thing for the vitality of the trade union movement.

Someone has forgotten that hitting someone else is asking for trouble.

Men should either be treated generously or destroyed, because they take revenge for slight injuries - for heavy ones they cannot.

Niccolò Machiavelli, 16th century

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