“Tokmanni Group estimates its 2025 net sales to be EUR 1,720-1,820 million. Comparable operating profit is estimated to be EUR 100-130 million.”
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Tokmanni’s result apparently fell short of forecasts, but at the same time, the result was above analyst forecasts 
Most importantly, the dividend apparently fell short of forecasts, and even decreased from last year. Tsk tsk, naughty Tokmanni, this kind of thing just won’t do 
Edit.
Well, I probably should have remembered to link that news, but I wrote it on my phone. In that news, the consensus for the dividend was 0.70 
. Well, I wouldn’t be surprised if, in addition to conflicting comments, all other numbers in that news were also completely off.
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Wasn’t the consensus regarding the dividend 0.68 and at Inderes 0.57? Proposal 0.68.
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Revenue continues to grow well, but profit doesn’t quite follow, full potential isn’t being realized, and of course, weak consumer confidence is still reflected in cautious purchasing. In my opinion, it would now require at least the end of the war in Ukraine for people to wake up from their slumber; on the other hand, spring is already approaching rapidly.
The dividend proposal was a positive surprise, probably explained by the good cash flow in the last quarter. However, it doesn’t support the earnings disappointment. I expect some 5-10% drop, but I consider it a buying opportunity; there might still be a larger short position open there. However, the long-term story hasn’t changed.
The guidance is probably the most important thing here; 115 million is the midpoint, is that a disappointment too!? Well, it is, @JM555, it clearly states so in @Arttu_Heikura’s preliminary comment.
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Dollarstore’s gross margins are trending towards the rest of the group, i.e., downwards. At a quarterly level, -2.4 percentage points. What is the future direction, is this the new normal now that Dollarstore has adopted Tokmanni’s operating practices? Will it move even closer to Tokmanni in the future as the implementation continues?
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To my eye, that is the biggest disappointment; Inderes’ forecast was 110-140. In itself, the actual quarterly figures didn’t fall short by much. However, a bright spot was the customer numbers, which grew comparably well. The most important thing, however, is that those customers are still brought into the stores, and the average purchase and thus the gross margin will surely improve with the growth of purchasing power.
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Indeed, the positive aspect of the report was the development of comparable stores, where both sales and customer numbers clearly increased. Christmas sales were therefore successful. Fixed costs also flexed nicely as turnover rose! This shows how comparable growth scales into profitability when growth in old stores does not require significant additional resources.
The gross margin % decreased contrary to expectations. It’s not worth drawing far-reaching conclusions from this yet, as the growth in daily consumer goods might have had an impact here. However, I expected that the better profitability of increased private label products at Dollarstore would have raised Dollarstore’s gross margin. We will inquire about this in the earnings call.
The synergy target was missed by a couple of million. It is likely that the process has only been delayed and synergies could still be extracted.
The earnings guidance could have been better, but expectations are within the range. I wouldn’t be overly concerned about this. However, I printed in the comment that consensus forecasts might decrease during the day. Or let’s say, there’s certainly no upside for them this year 
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Well, there’s no point in throwing in the towel yet, but I still guess it’s a disappointment for the markets. On the other hand, the macro environment could also become more favorable; in many sectors, H2/2025 is seen as better. Of course, a positive earnings warning shouldn’t be ruled out at this stage, but this is certainly somewhat of a disappointment for the CEO, as the strategic period’s targets, i.e., that 150 million, will likely not be reached. On the other hand, the world and the company itself have changed a lot since the targets were set.
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Yes, Tokmanni’s own brands (consumer goods) should support Dollarstore’s sales margin. In both segments, grocery growth has recently been stronger than consumer goods, which is behind the decreased margin. The report also mentioned that promotional products had a negative impact on Dollarstore’s margins.
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@Arhi_Kivilahti received the report with more positive thoughts than analysts:
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Consumer confidence will surely improve. The ECB lowered interest rates again yesterday. The interest rate cut will be reflected in mortgage loans with a delay, which in Finland are in most cases tied to Euribor. From there, more will be left for consumption, which will boost trade.
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Well, that result didn’t cause much surprise. Since the stock price has risen sharply recently and, traditionally, Tokmanni’s stock price always reacts strongly to results, even the stock price reaction isn’t shocking. However, the train is moving in the right direction, even though some have predicted a faster pace.
The increase in the sales share of daily consumer goods and the decrease in the share of durable goods is, of course, a bad direction from a margin perspective, but on the other hand, in my opinion, it increases Tokmanni’s defensiveness and improves its competitive position in the discount retail sector. It also highlights the meaningfulness of the Spar cooperation.
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Paywall ofc.
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According to the forum rules, it would, of course, be welcome to quote the content of linked paywalled articles. Someone else can elaborate further if they wish, but I will now only quote this short excerpt, from which it roughly becomes clear what is behind the headline:
“The most significant stress factors identified in the inspection were unrealistic or unreasonable goals, excessive workload relative to working hours, lack of variety in work, monotony of work, and constant interruptions to work,”
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This is probably not a problem unique to Tokmanni or even the retail sector. I have experienced this myself for many years in so-called “expert work”. You can influence it yourself, for example, by changing jobs.
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Investment Tips for the Past Week - Tokmanni:
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Stock valuation remains moderate
We still see the stock’s valuation picture as attractive. The company is priced with quite moderate earnings multiples (2025e P/E 12x and IFRS 16 adj. EV/EBIT ~12x), in which we see slight upside potential. Especially the P/E ratio is significantly below the peer group median, which also supports the stock’s upside. Furthermore, based on the PEG ratio (2024 0.8x), our forecasted earnings growth has not been fully accounted for in the share price. In addition, the return expectation is supported by a dividend yield of ~7%. Our view of a moderately priced stock is also supported by a DCF value of just over 15 euros. We see the stock offering investors a sufficient return expectation to support against short-term uncertainties.
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Now I have to ask, is it generally sensible to make forecast changes just before earnings releases? A forecast change was made for Tokmanni in the earnings preview on March 3rd, when the target was raised to 15.5 euros. Now, a week later, it was lowered to 14.5 euros. @Arttu_Heikura, do you have a policy on whether forecasts are changed just before an earnings release?
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OP also updated its recommendation in the morning:
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There is no policy that forecasts should be changed before results.
However, if the share price rises to the target price level, it is then sensible to review the forecasts and the view. For this reason, I made an update before the results, in connection with which the forecasts and target price also changed. The view then changed from buy → add and now continues as add.
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