Let’s open the traditional prediction thread for the year 2025.
So, let’s predict the three strongest stock gainers of 2025 on the Helsinki (Hesuli) stock exchange.
It would be nice to hear brief justifications for the choices. Last day to predict is January 1, 2025.
My picks.
Neste: Subsidies are coming and green states are desperately trying to reach their goals. The stock price has been, in my opinion, pushed down unnecessarily low.
Incap: The winning streak in market shares continues and energy investments pick up.
Optomed: Deals are steadily coming in from the United States, otherwise, I expect stable growing results. Slowly but surely. 2026 will surge.
Each from euphoria to being sidelined, some more, some less. Each has the opportunity to improve as interest rates fall, the economy recovers, and valuation levels return towards averages.
Eezy: recovering as the economy picks up
Nokian Tyres: car sales pick up and the Romania factory reaches design production
Kamux: the chill in car sales ends
Kesko. It has potential, provided that some market share can be regained in the grocery business and that business picks up in the construction sector. Hopefully, we will see a turnaround next year.
Tokmanni. Good growth strategy, which gives it leverage in procurement compared to many competitors. The brand image has become clearer and marketing is more vibrant than before.
Olvi. A reasonably priced quality company that many avoid due to Belarus. Since the company is in the country against its will, with the firm being under a sales ban, I tolerate the current situation. Value will be created if that highly profitable brewery can be sold. A dreamer could, of course, hope for a democratic revolution in the country and the country’s business operations becoming acceptable, but the probability of that scenario is not the greatest right now..
Well, I admit, perhaps I don’t think of any of these companies from the perspective that they have the chance to double their share price next year. But perhaps they also won’t succeed in Hesari’s “biggest loser” competition.
A year ago, when Hesari’s losers of the year were evaluated, I noticed that with my own choices, I would have made a handsome profit by buying at the end of the year and selling during the January rally. My dream was to create a “junk portfolio” at the end of this year, to collect ‘junk’ for recycling early next year. But I didn’t end up testing such an investment strategy. If I had gone through with it, at the end of this year, at least Oma Säästöpankki and Tecnotree would have ended up in the portfolio.
A central theme in these predictions is that the companies’ utterly dismal financial performance in 2024 creates an opportunity for leverage in the other direction. Anyone owning/following these three knows that 2024 was absolutely terrible for all three.
But let’s hope we’re heading towards a brighter 2025.
Talenom:
This company has, in my opinion, pushed the gas pedal too hard with international expansion, and investors have heavily penalized it for this lack of focus. The balance sheet has weakened, profitability has weakened (partly due to the economic cycle in Finland and Sweden). In the acquired companies, their own software is still largely not in use.
However, I slightly believe that the company will adapt its operations this year, and the economic cycle will start showing signs of life in Finland and Sweden (where the implementation of their own software has also started to yield benefits as the year progresses).
If you hold your nose, you could, with good luck, get good returns from this stock in the coming years. However, the track record from Finland is traditionally good, and I don’t believe that cultural differences will prevent the replication of the same model, at least in the important Swedish market.
Fondia:
Can one really mess up a good investment story so thoroughly with one’s own actions in a fairly defensive business law market? In Fondia’s case, the answer is a clear yes. The company initiated change negotiations, and hopefully, their operations will gain better sharpness. I would gladly see some fresh ideas in the management team and on the board. In my opinion, this company would have good potential to be a decent, profitable growth company. Currently, in my opinion, it’s in the turnaround company category in terms of its investor story. If profitability can be improved and growth stabilizes somewhere around 7+ percent annually, then this would have the ingredients for a good investment story. Sentiment is currently in the mud for this stock as well.
Neste:
This has not been a pleasure to own in 2024. If analysts’ and investors’ thoughts have gone astray with any stock, my candidate for that title would be Neste.
My hope would be that the major disadvantages from production plant shutdowns would be over in 2025. The company’s renewable aviation fuels, etc., will hopefully start to provide some uplift after a difficult 2024. Difficult to predict, but the amount of pessimism among investors is, in my opinion, palpable. A change in sentiment could cause a significant rebound upwards. Of course, this requires a proven turnaround in results as the year progresses.
ELISA OYJ
Because they relentlessly pursue their customers (including me) and try to sell something.
MARIMEKKO OYJ
Consumption is picking up, if not in Finland, then at least globally, and people are happy to buy slightly higher quality products.
APETIT
People want to eat healthier and Apetit’s per-kilo prices for vegetables are reasonable.
Norrhydro: Volvo sales are starting to pick up and other customer accounts will be announced. The stock price won’t skyrocket, but it will still be in the black.
Canatu: ASML or similar states that this is too good a company for the Helsinki Stock Exchange, and Canatu is bought off the market.
Traditionally, one should look for some really crappy bargain stock (Kamux, KH, Neste), but let’s try to choose something of higher quality:
Qt group. As growth continues and profitability rises, at the same time with falling interest rates, the valuation could be even higher. A quality company that should have a long runway ahead.
Biohit. Good profitability with nice growth - and a modest valuation. New product launches next year and perhaps some news about new initiatives. Valuations can stretch with the company’s earnings performance.
LapWall. Even though the worst undervaluation has unwound, LapWall is still, in my opinion, a moderately valued gem in the construction industry. Even in a crappy market, good results have been achieved, what then when the underlying market improves?
I own all the above-mentioned companies. With these holdings, I will churn out over 20% return next year, which my other loser stocks can then bring down.
Lindex - Restructuring will be completed and department stores will be offloaded. Lindex’s sheet metal hall ready and growth will start coming.
Neste - When all the bad (or at least it feels like it) is already priced in, then even with “just okay” performance, the stock price will take off like a rocket.
SSH - There will be an acquisition with a hefty premium. (The list’s wildcard)
Verve: US advertisers are increasingly putting the money they received from tax benefits into play to get their share of the reduced income level caused by Trump. The stock will fluctuate during the year but will end up above 70 SEK.
Faron: This will not be partnered, but will become a direct acquisition target. Mergers and acquisitions are returning again, accompanied by Trump, and big pharma will surely get its share of US tax benefits. The deal will be sealed at €1.75 billion unless someone starts a bidding war.
Borr Drilling: 2024 was a poor performance in terms of stock price, but from a business perspective, performance is constantly improving. The industry’s best and youngest fleet, competitors’ rigs are approaching scrapping, competent management, and demand is not decreasing - just like supply. $8-9 in a year.
I am bullish, so let’s see in a year how wrong I was.
Edit: Smartly, I read the thread title more carefully only afterwards. From the Helsinki list, 2 risers in addition to Faron: Lindex and Neste
My knowledge of Helsinki-listed stocks is not at its peak, but my own portfolio contains three Helsinki-listed stocks, so let’s put them in order of magnitude:
WARNING: These theses might be very bullish, so beware of burning your fingers!
LapWall, the Pyhäntä factory will be completed on schedule and within budget by the end of the year, thus eliminating risks related to it. During the year, residential construction starts will begin to be seen, and construction companies will realize that there will soon be a shortage of new developments, so now is the time to start. In addition, LapWall will secure a couple of factory investment projects (similar to Metsä Wood’s Äänekoski factory), which will be announced via a stock exchange release. At some point, a positive profit warning will be issued, in which the company anticipates a profit of approximately six million euros. The valuation will climb to somewhere around P/E 17-19 as the market begins to anticipate a real awakening in the construction sector. The market value will be around one hundred million euros by the end of the year, so an annual return of 80-100% can be recorded.
Vaisala continues to be Vaisala and beats analyst forecasts. Valuations in America will rise further, causing global portfolio managers’ attention to turn back towards emerging markets, and the Finnish quality company will become attractive. It will be noticed that Vaisala benefits from a megatrend (climate change) and meets all possible criteria for a quality company. Earnings will grow at least as Inderes forecasts (22%). The valuation will tighten further, but the extent of the tightening is, of course, impossible to predict.
Canatu, it will be noticed that a proper boom in the semiconductor sector will begin by the end of the decade. (in other areas besides AI chips) As a result, either A) some giant will buy the company out, or B) investors will truly discover Canatu, leading to a partly even irrational stock rally. I’m not giving any forecasts for this one
I personally believe in these companies in the long term; it will bear fruit in 2025 if it does, time will tell.
Faron Partnership agreement sends the course towards the moon. Optomed Acquired from the stock exchange with a 100% premium. Enento Acquired from the stock exchange with a 70% premium.
Outokumpu: It seems quite likely that the war in Ukraine could come to an end next year. The start of reconstruction will increase steel demand and prices.
UPM: hopes for the recovery of the pulp market in terms of price and delivery volumes.
Valmet: As the forest sector cycle improves (hopefully), new equipment orders in the forest sector will turn to growth.
I believe that next year, Europe will take a big step towards the return of zero interest rates. This should significantly boost the results of each of these companies and raise their valuation multiples. For Kojamo, an additional plus is the housing shortage emerging in growth centers due to the decline in housing construction in recent years. In addition, share prices have been significantly depressed in recent years, so it’s easier to bounce back from the bottom.
My Top-3 for next year with justifications and scenarios:
Noho
Revenue will grow explosively next year organically as interest rates fall and people fill restaurants, and nightclubs once again have hour-long queues. In addition, smaller bars will be bought out and some larger chain restaurant. Profitability has already been sustainably honed to a top level, and the earnings machine is ready to churn out results.
Olvi
Earnings will grow, and there is room for valuation to rise. The Belarus earnings pump will be realized after the war ends, and huge dividends will be transferred to Iisalmi.
Saga Furs
Next summer, in a monopoly position, they will start selling minks at exorbitant prices to China and make a hell of a profit.
Neste…cannot sink forever…what goes down must come up (The Russian skirmish in Ukraine ends…Hesuli experiences a miraculous rise as foreign investors initially rediscover Finland, and subsequently, ‘windbreaker-clad’ Finnish investors move their money back from the Nasdaq hype and Bitcoins (of course, only after poor Hesuli has already been pulled up by 15%…Neste gets an uplifting Laine from Pasi…
Lindex…already told here why…I won’t repeat it..
KH Group…those buying apartments find Asko-Sotka combo stores…northern Sweden goes crazy for KH’s machines…
Partnership agreement sends the course towards the moon.
scenarios: