This could perhaps have been posted in the Puuilo thread as well. But maybe because of Dollarstore, it fits better here. That is, market development from the perspective of competitors. I have previously written that in Tokmanni’s investment story, the significance of competitors will be even more relevant in the coming years. Tokmanni & DS are in a situation where the greatest growth has been built on the store network. Especially in Finland, that “new store” growth is hardly available anymore (without cannibalization). And in Sweden, expansion is on hold because the direction of the concept is not clear—it’s not worth scaling a dysfunctional concept.
And correspondingly, many competitors are, especially in Finland, just starting their “fastest expansion pace”—meaning right where Tokmanni was in 2015-2024. In some years, they used to open 15 new Tokmannis—this year, I believe, 2-3 openings (in such affluent areas as Ivalo with 3,000 residents and Ähtäri with 5,000 residents)? That is why I think a Tokmanni investor should be extra alert over the next few years regarding what competitors are doing. I would even go as far as to say that competitors are the single most important factor affecting Tokmanni in 2026-2027 (e.g., of greater potential significance than PL development, the cost-cutting program, marketing strategy, etc.). When a direct competitor opens right next door, the growth of the local market size is simply not enough for both.
Indeed. When a new competitor enters a town, the discount retail pie always grows a little bit. But sharing that pie still takes a bigger slice (than the growth of the whole pie compensates for). And as is well known, responding to the competition means, among other things, narrowing margins and heavier marketing expenses…
Rusta
Opening 6 stores in Finland this autumn alone!?! “We continue to expand at a high pace, which demonstrates the strength of our store pipeline and the significant growth opportunities we see across our markets. Our strategy remains unchanged.”
Clas Ohlson
Not growth based heavily on new openings. But I’d say quite convincing execution. Do they even have the best “discount retail” figures in Finland and Sweden? May – July +9% organic growth in Finland and +11% organic growth in Sweden. Somewhat different figures compared to Tokmanni or Dollarstore with the same consumers and the same weather…
Jula
When Rusta this week is gloating that “we are opening 6 stores in Finland this autumn,” what does Jula do the same week!?!?
Jula: “Hold my beer.”
Jula is opening 7 new department stores in Finland during the rest of the year! Jula avaa seitsemän uutta tavarataloa Suomessa kuuden kuukauden aikana - Jula AB/Jula
“It is particularly pleasing to see how Jula continues to grow in Finland. We have a strong offering that Finnish customers appreciate, and we see great opportunities for the future.”
Biltema
And at the same time, Biltema also announces that it does not intend to wait around in the Finnish market. Market shares are being aggressively pursued with 10 new stores, and especially the Biltema Cafe is sought as a competitive advantage that others probably do not have.
https://www.biltema.fi/uutta-ja-hyodyllista/uutiset/10-uutta-tavarataloa-ja-kahvilaa-suomeen/
Puuilo
Nor is the domestic competitor sitting completely silently watching the Swedes’ charge on home turf—instead, it is launching a counter-offensive to compete on away turf. But even in Finland, the expansion pace remains quite brisk. This year, there will probably be 7 new stores?
And above, of course, is only a fraction of the competitors. But when within the span of a week, 3 strong Swedish players announce how investments and expansion are being accelerated even further, a justified question arises in my mind: when Tokmanni takes a hit in Sweden with Dollarstore’s concept change, how will it go for the group’s brick-and-mortar backbone, Tokmanni, as the Swedish charge slowly gathers momentum on home turf?
When a Rusta, Jula, and Biltema open right next to a basic Tokmanni—what will be Tokmanni’s competitive advantage and strategic direction of the concept over the next 24 months, ensuring that despite new competitors, sales do not drop, price competition and margins do not fall, fixed cost percentage does not rise, and marketing expenses do not increase?
Recommendation for fellow Tokmanni investors: Keep your eyes on the competitors for the next twenty-four months at home. And on that comp growth.