The guidance for this year is indeed exceptionally soft. This was, however, already foreshadowed by the notes in yesterday’s target update.
Management has mentioned before that profitability is more important than (rapid) growth, and a suitable scale for Tekova in its current form could be somewhere around—was it €150M in annual revenue? It’s also worth remembering that last year, the guidance was raised throughout the year as growth exceeded expectations. On the other hand, management’s performance across various forums has been so confident that I would consider declining revenue in 2026 a clear flop, regardless of profitability.
I must also say right away that the profitability guidance is an even bigger disappointment than the growth guidance. The lower bound of the profitability guidance is so soft that if they end up there by the end of 2026 by “prioritizing profitability over growth,” then business must have gone quite poorly.
The multiples aren’t extreme, even if revenue and profitability were to dip slightly. Based on realized figures, EV/EBIT is under 4 and P/E is under eight. But if the business metrics trend in the wrong direction, then it’s probably not worth paying any more than this.