There have been significantly more positive reviews lately, at least.
And the average player count has turned upward for the first time in a long while over the past couple of months and has tripled from the April lows.
According to whom? 
At least from the developers and their representatives, communication has been clear that this is a long-term process and that no quick miracles are being worked here.
I had to try that offline mode, and I didn’t see anything groundbreaking in a single session. The bots were still idiots and I ran into some bugs in the game that I hadn’t encountered before.
I happened to take a look at PD’s graphs for the first time in a while. Player counts are in a clear uptrend, although the numbers are still not particularly significant.
Similarly, churn has clearly started to decline.
Payday 2 still has its players in a tight grip and isn’t letting them go to the third one. The average player count for PD2 is still hovering around > 22,000.
Something like this was written over in Sweden as Starbreeze’s upcoming results are being anticipated.
Tl;Dr: Everything is falling, but perhaps not in the future.
The coming months hold the potential to change this, with two major DLCs – Land of the Free and Fear and Greed –scheduled for release by the end of September. Additional OMB updates, including improvements to solo mode, matchmaking, CrimeNet, and Offline Mode, are also planned. We believe that these releases will support a gradual improvement in PD3 revenues from Q3 and onwards. Nevertheless, we remain cautious about these potential impacts, given the relatively muted effects from several initiatives and enhancements year-to-date.
I’m still holding, as I bought it at a so-called reasonable price. The company’s cash position was in good shape a few months ago, and I hope revenue has improved. Let’s see what happens.
Analyst comment above. Report below:
Second quarter 2024
- Net sales amounted to SEK 40.2 million (43.2).
- PAYDAY 2 accounted for SEK 9.2 million (42.7).
- PAYDAY 3 accounted for SEK 22.0 million (0).
- Third-party publishing accounted for SEK 8.8 million (0).
- EBITDA amounted to SEK 8.1 million (14.1), including items affecting comparability of SEK -3.5 million.
- Cash flow from operating activities amounted to SEK 2.7 million (20.1).
- Depreciation, amortization and impairment amounted to SEK 78.9 million (17.0).
- Profit/loss before taxes amounted to SEK -70.6 million (24.1).
- Basic and diluted earnings per share amounted to SEK -0.05 (0.03).
January-June 2024
- Net sales amounted to SEK 96.8 million (69.9).
- PAYDAY 2 accounted for SEK 20.1 million (69.1).
- PAYDAY 3 accounted for SEK 45.3 million (0).
- Third-party publishing accounted for SEK 26.2 million (0).
- EBITDA* amounted to SEK 56.6 million (18.1), including items affecting comparability of SEK 16.3
million.- Cash flow from operating activities amounted to SEK 81.1 million (40.8).
- Depreciation, amortization and impairment amounted to SEK 150.7 million (32.7).
- Profit/loss before taxes amounted to SEK -91.5 million (-0.6).
- Basic and diluted earnings per share amounted to SEK -0.06 (-0.00).
- Cash and cash equivalents amounted to SEK 334.6 million
(498.8).
Comparing Q1 and Q2, the cash position decreased by 50 million SEK.
The Payday 3 DLC saw a price cut during Q2 and revenue was slightly below. Now they are reporting that many players have been checking out the game.
Competition is still tough; who knows at what point the new maps will lose their luster and the migration from Payday to other games will continue.
Regarding Starbreeze’s cash flow, Payday 2 seems to be fading, which might even be a cause for concern.
Project Baxter is likely the company’s “last chance.” Soon, even the jokers in the deck will have been used. Sorry.
A new comprehensive report on SBX has dropped from Sweden.
Let’s include this. Hey, great progress has certainly been made.
There has indeed been progress, but not in the right direction. Payday 2 has lost half of its players in a year.
Understandable; it doesn’t make sense to put resources into marketing until the remaining player base is satisfied with the game. I assume a round of efforts to win players back will be launched once the game is in a reasonable state. Steam reviews turning around is the first sign that there might be hope.
News from Sweden in the form of a preview. The percentage figures are ugly when compared to last year’s Q3, when PD3 was released. Results out next Thursday, Nov 14th.
Our outlook for 2025 remains cautious, and we expect PD3 sales will likely face further headwinds in the next year. We see 2025 as a transitional year, with Starbreeze preparing for more substantial revenue growth in 2026 with the anticipated launch of Project Baxter.
Starbreeze’s ongoing high investment levels, coupled with lower expected revenues, will likely place further strains on cash flows in 2025. This may necessitate external financing or other financing support to sustain Project Baxter’s development, especially if PD3 fails to generate a meaningful recovery.
Report
Q3’24:
- Net sales amounted to SEK 42.7 million (494.4).
- PAYDAY 2 accounted for SEK 11.5 million (51.6).
- PAYDAY 3 accounted for SEK 22.9 million (440.8).
- Third-party publishing accounted for SEK 6.2 million (0.8).
- EBITDA* amounted to SEK 21.4 million (441.8).
- Cash flow from operating activities amounted to SEK -15.9 million (11.1).
- Depreciation, amortization and impairment amounted to SEK 76.5 million (142.0).
- Profit/loss before taxes amounted to SEK -58.5 million (299.8).
- Basic and diluted earnings per share amounted to SEK -0.04 (0.21).
YTD
- Net sales amounted to SEK 139.5 million (564.3).
- PAYDAY 2 accounted for SEK 31.6 million (120.8).
- PAYDAY 3 accounted for SEK 68.2 million (440.8).
- Third-party publishing accounted for SEK 32.3 million (0.8).
- EBITDA* amounted to SEK 78.0 million (460.0), including items affecting comparability of SEK 20.9 million.
- Cash flow from operating activities amounted to SEK 65.2 million (51.9).
- Depreciation, amortization and impairment amounted to SEK 227.2 million (174.7).
- Profit/loss before taxes amounted to SEK -150.1 million (299.2).
- Basic and diluted earnings per share amounted to SEK -0.10 (0.31).
- Cash and cash equivalents amounted to SEK 249.3 million (312.9).
Thanks! It looked ugly according to the preview you posted last week, so I sold the entire 100,000 units this week with about a 28% profit. The amount wasn’t particularly large, but a profit nonetheless.
Payday 3’s player-friendly pricing and more aggressive discount campaigns brought small bright spots to the player statistics. Now just a proper free weekend push for Christmas, since the game works and reviews are turning around.
Maybe they could slow down the cash burn rate with Christmas sales. And those player counts would start moving in Steam statistics from being stuck at a thousand players to somewhere over 5000…
In Embracer’s earnings release, it was mentioned that Payday 3 has risen to their top 10 backlog game list (Embu’s release year has been miserable).
Christoffer Jennel on tehnyt uuden rapsan Starbreezestä Q3:n jälkeen. 
The PAYDAY 3 game has undergone notable improvements during the past year and the sentiment around the game has shifted more positive in recent months. However, despite these achievements, the player activity remains muted. We believe this reaffirm our conservative investment view on the company and with limited catalysts for the stock in the short-term, we reiterate our Reduce recommendation while lowering our target price to SEK 0.22 (was SEK 0.30).
Starbreeze’s interim CEO and CFO Mats Juhl comments on the Q3 results to Christoffer, including the development of PAYDAY 3, future projects such as Project Baxter and Roboquest, and future focus areas in the company’s operations. 
The gaming press has spotted a comment by Juhlin in the Q3 report stating that the number of developers for PD3 can be reduced for next year. Likely when Operation Medic Bag finally ends.
“The level of investment during Payday 3’s first year on the market, both through launched DLCs and Operation Medic Bag, has been at an elevated level. Ahead of year two, we are confident in being able to continue delivering amounts of value to our players with a significantly lower level of investment.”
Starbreeze announced yesterday a cooperation agreement with South Korean KRAFTON Inc. The agreement brings cash flow and visibility, but retains ownership of the PAYDAY IP. Recommendation raised to Add.
And below is a fresh company report by Christoffer Jennel.
