Opening a dedicated forum thread for Starbreeze.
Our initiation of coverage report on the company (in English) can be found here:
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It’s great to have a new gaming company under coverage. An interesting firm. Regarding Payday 2, it’s also a bit unusual that the game has been a long-term success despite mediocre initial reviews.
I have to be a bit skeptical about the same topic as with Remedy, namely the estimated release schedules. The company has about 170 employees and has released one small game in 2013 and two major games in 2013 and 2018 over the last decade. Now a new game is coming in 2023. So major games have been released in roughly five-year cycles. The current estimate is that PD3 will arrive in 2023 and the next major game in 2025/2026. Additionally, another game in 2027 (perhaps small-scale?). I don’t quite understand what this clearly accelerating development pace is based on. It also needs to be taken into account that the PD3 release model will require a lot of work for a long time after the game’s launch.
Regardless of when the upcoming games are released, the investment is very much based on faith in how Payday 3 performs.
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With the multi-project model 
Chat-GPT4 shared some interesting figures regarding Starbreeze’s headcount after I provided it with links to the 2014-2022 annual reports. In 2018, the headcount was 267 and dropped sharply to 122, and now it stands at about 170 people. The personnel policy isn’t very convincing right now. With this track record, growing the staff won’t be easy, and accelerating game production sounds like a pipe dream. If PD3 were a massive success, there would be hope for something better. I’ll have to read the full report, though.
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Starbreeze has a rights issue ongoing. May 26th was the last day to buy shares that include subscription rights. Further details on page 14 of the comprehensive report and here: Rights Issue 2023 – Starbreeze
Despite the detachment of the subscription right (theoretical value approx. 0.30 SEK ((1.05 - 0.75)*5/6)), yesterday’s closing price was 0.05 SEK higher than on May 26th. The market is a bit excited.
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That was a really well-written analysis, it was a pleasure to read 
Instead of pointing out any sensible points, I wanted to bring up this highlight where it’s mentioned that the funding gap can be closed by brining the publisher 
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I’ve been reading a comprehensive report this evening, and at least a few interesting/dangerous/hoped-for assumptions stood out to me. But let’s start with the most important thing, i.e., $$$
And then with a slightly more serious face:
The entire report bases its valuation on the assumption that Payday 3 will be a successful release with a long lifespan through a multi-year development roadmap and the release of additional content. Since this hits close to the heart of someone who played Payday 1 and 2 passionately, I feel the need to bring up some of my own thoughts as well. Payday 2 was a successful release, building on additional mechanics and more versatile maps, the foundation of which Overkill’s original Payday 1 made strong through its interesting game world and design. Payday 1 was also a surprise in its time, but suffered from the limitations of its era, such as a lack of VOIP and platform locks. After these two (quite and) successful releases, Payday 3 has been in development for years with various team configurations following Starbreeze’s troubles. The latest information about the game was received about 6 months ago, and the release should be within the next 6 months. If the release is already this close, development resources should already be flat out on the next game, and the QA side should be working the night shift chasing bug fixes and final polishes so the game can be released in good technical condition. This would also mean that the content side of Payday 3 is finished and wrapped up.
But.
Why hasn’t anything been shared publicly about the game since the talks in January? Hype in the gaming world could and should be raised, pre-orders accepted, and developers should talk about the game’s excellence and greatness in connection with various streams and demos. Or do they not want excessive expectations for the game and are settling for slightly lower launch week revenues? The latter option doesn’t sound sensible to me for the earnings policy of a company making a new phoenix-like rise, so my suspicions are directed specifically at the content of Payday 3. The game may well disappoint in that regard, as so many games in recent years have done—being released as a half-finished version with core game mechanics and functionalities being supplemented later through additional content. Hopefully, we will get better visibility on this during the summer, as other major game releases are expected at various gaming events during June/July. However, I would argue that the reason Payday 1 and 2 were such good games is that the mechanics were very strong from the start, the maps were interesting, and especially the cooperative play between players was captivating. If Payday 3 is released with only half the content—and in the worst case, less than Payday 1 or 2—then the game will not survive no matter what kind of development resources are used to improve it in the later days.
The other side of the report concerns Starbreeze’s publishing plans for two other games between 2025 and 2028. Starbreeze has already announced that they are in discussions regarding IP rights for games for which: " They also mention that the IP in question has been used, among other things, as the base for games, computer games, books and short stories as well as feature films." Could the publisher of the Mulle Meck series potentially be involved here? Games – Mulle Meck
However, it is wild to assume (as is done in the report’s bull scenarios) that a company with nothing under its belt on the publishing side but weak launches from years past and the relatively successful Brothers game will achieve a 100% hit streak. Publishing games is no easy task; costs can also balloon if resources are pulled away from the studio’s own games for third-party development work.
Hopefully, Starbreeze’s share issue succeeds and they get more capital to lean on in the coming years. When net debt-free and in the period after the Payday 3 release, I would dare to invest my own money into this more strongly, but for now, I think I’ll stay on the sidelines until at least some kind of demo or similar for the relatively little-anticipated (read: hyped) Payday 3 game comes to light 
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Anton’s thoughts on the company in the second domestic language (Swedish):
and in English:
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The mobile game Payday Crime War, which has been in development for a long time, was released yesterday. Starbreeze has licensed the IP to mobile game developer PopReach and, if the game is successful, Starbreeze may accrue revenue in the form of royalty income. At this point, expectations for the game are cautious, and our forecasts do not expect significant revenue from the game. There is thus an option for a positive surprise, but considering the challenging situation in the mobile game market, this is indeed just an option at this point.
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Payday 3 release date potentially leaked. Pelaaja.fi article below. September 21st is a possible release date, but take it with a major grain of salt 
Payday 3:n julkaisupäivä vuodettiin verkkoon – yhteistyörötöstely näyttäisi saapuvan syyskuussa - Pelaaja.fi
Summer Game Fest is tonight, could we expect an official announcement about the release there?
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No information about the game was shared at Summer Game Fest, and yesterday’s (June 8, 2023) Payday 2 update brought the game to the Epic Games Store and added EOS (Epic Online Services) to the game, which simultaneously broke playability for Steam players. This is already having a negative impact and will continue to be seen negatively within the Payday 2 player community. As I understand it, the Payday 2 community is the primary group expected to purchase Payday 3 upon release. Whether this directly affects Payday 3 sales is hard to say, but the community’s importance has historically been quite significant for the continuation of Overkill’s and Starbreeze’s story.
All that’s missing now is an Epic Exclusive announcement as a rug pull, even though the press release tries hard to reassure everyone that this won’t happen (Metro Exodus being a historical example). In principle, the press release doesn’t bind Starbreeze in any way to launch on Steam simultaneously with Epic; an exclusive deal could still be possible since sales haven’t started on either platform. Starbreeze’s tight-lipped approach regarding the release could also be indicative of this.
Unfortunately, many companies imagine they can achieve temporary financial gain by committing to “Tencent dollars” at launch. This often leads to, and has already caused, the destruction of player communities and will likely be more harmful financially in the long run. A “Tencent dollar” exclusive deal might work for games like Control and when a large publisher is involved. However, I see the situation for Starbreeze as being slightly different, purely because Payday is, by nature, a co-op shooter that requires a strong community behind it to succeed. Control, on the other hand, was a single-player third-person story-driven game, which is much easier to sell even without strong community support compared to a co-op shooter. Sure, by putting the game in Epic’s hands, they might attract “Fortnite teens,” but in practice, this also pushes the game in a direction that certainly won’t please the existing Steam community.
Apparently, using Epic’s game engine can be compared to giving the devil an inch, as the temptation for add-ons is too great. Of course, anyone who has studied business knows and remembers that real margins are often in the sale of add-ons and extras rather than the main product itself.
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I need to add a couple of my own observations that completely flew under my radar and surely went unnoticed by many who were considering the game on Steam.
The Metro Exodus case is an interesting example because
The party responsible for that Epic Exclusive deal was specifically the publisher. At the time, it was Koch Media, now Plaion, which owned Deep Silver, the publisher of Metro Exodus.
Plaion also owns Prime Matter, i.e., the publisher of Payday 3. Given these historical facts and how Plaion has operated with Epic exclusivity deals, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the same happened again. This is also supported by the fact that Starbreeze and the developers have been quite quiet, even tight-lipped in my opinion, regarding the game’s release in Twitch streams (you can see it in their body language when someone answers a controversial question from the chat). Furthermore, the timing of the share issue seems quite calculated, considering the big picture.
I’d also like to know who has been selling off shares in bulk since May Day if the expectations for their own product’s success are at all on track?
The release date has now been confirmed (Sept 21), and at the same time, the game is available for pre-purchase on Steam. So it apparently isn’t an EGS Exclusive. Really good news.
As long as the game itself is good, I’m sure this will start reflecting in the stock price as well.
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It’s worth mentioning that the game is coming to Xbox Game Pass. Guaranteed millions are expected through that, but of course, it reduces sales. It’s probably not a cheap addition to the Pass.
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Anton’s comments based on the release news:
Based on the trailer, the game looks really good and a big leap forward is expected vs. Payday 2, as is to be expected with today’s technology. Also, the player comments under the video and elsewhere on social media seem mostly positive:
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Overall, I would give the gameplay video a fairly positive rating. It’s not a total flop, but there’s nothing revolutionary expected compared to the previous game either. The direction regarding color themes has clearly leaned towards a Fortnite-style cartoon shooter (at least for the beginning before the action), which could be easier to monetize in the long run through various skins and such.
I analyzed the video frame by frame. It seemed that in terms of gameplay and action, there is a significant improvement compared to the more “rubbery” experience of the Diesel engine. Ultimately, gameplay is a more important element in these games than absolute visual perfection.
It’s hard to say anything about the story based on videos like this yet. Of course, looking back at how much story-driven content was produced for Payday 2, the studio has clearly had all the keys for further development and game improvement. It’s likely more a matter of resources and time going forward.
The Game Pass deal is definitely a more positive sign than an Epic exclusive. I think the game’s retail pricing has also been handled correctly by keeping the price of the base version relatively low by modern standards. Putting additional maps and DLC under a season pass is also a very viable option in my view.
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Having watched a few reaction/analysis videos now, I’d say this is probably one of the best ones where everything from the video is gone through analytically.
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Quite a day in the market. It was up 10% at one point and ended up just as much in the red. A strange reaction to what was actually positive news.
But it’s definitely worth waiting for the actual release.
I’ve been thinking the same; there have been some pretty wild swings in the share price since May Day. I’m sure the company’s own actions and the extension of the share issue are having some impact on how other investors view the valuation right now.
On the other hand, while you shouldn’t rely on history, this company has a habit of also climbing in the other direction at quite an “excessive” pace. Personally, I believe the share price will stabilize and return to growth once the situation with the community settles down and Payday 3 is released. The general sentiment from reviews and community monitoring has been positive, as the game ultimately brings significantly more to the table in many respects than it takes away compared to Payday 2’s current state.
A fair amount of video material and content regarding Payday 3 has been released across various media over the past few weeks.
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Some twitch streamers/content creators have apparently been able to test the game at the developer’s studio.
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Not forgetting, of course, the official Dev Diary series on the official YouTube channel.
Based on the videos and latest information, the game still seems like a pretty solid package, although there is certainly always room for polish. This seems to be more the rule than the exception, even for the hottest AAA releases.
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PayDay has received a good reception from the influencers who have had the chance to try it. Judging by the view counts, people are definitely interested in the game. The comments are also very positive.
I give a lot of weight to the fact that these individuals have played and produced a lot of content for previous games in the series as well, so they know what they’re talking about. It feels like the developers have listened to the gaming community really well, which is important since PayDay 2 has one of the largest communities on Steam.
Interaction with players, for example on Twitter, has been handled very well. People seem to like “Mr. Payday twitter man’s” relaxed style and responses. These are small things, of course, but they strengthen the positive atmosphere surrounding the game.
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