As an individual investment, given the significant delays and massive budget overruns, Leuna is unlikely to become a jackpot on UPM’s scale. However, right from the start, the key question in my view has been whether the concept can be scaled in the 2030s. For comparison, UPM has not managed to scale its biofuels concept over the past 10–15 years, and its significance for the group has therefore remained limited, even though the Lappeenranta facility has probably generated reasonable profits on average over the longer term. Time will tell what the fate of Leuna and biochemicals will be, even if the talk is (as always) promising.
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