Satellite Markets - To Infinity and Beyond!

Space fascinates both philosophers and investors, and one market niche is small satellites. In 2018, the small satellite (under 500kg) market was approximately $3.6 billion, with forecasts for 2026 reaching around $15.6 billion.

The field includes both large and small players. I have primarily followed European companies Gomspace Group and AAC Clyde Space. Maxar Technologies is also interesting. Airbus and Boeing are naturally part of the scene.

Here’s some initial reading:

https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/small-satellite-market

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Interesting opening!

Other interesting ones could be Iridium, which is building a satellite network.

https://www.iridium.com/network/globalnetwork/

Elon Musk’s SpaceX is naturally part of the infrastructure that gets all that stuff transported into space. It’s a private company for now.

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I’ve been waiting for someone to take a stand on these markets :slight_smile: I myself joined this form of industry some time ago by buying AAC Clyde Space shares. It currently seems that the company is starting to get its finances in order and has received quite a few orders recently.

I bought Maxar on a hunch and a double or nothing mentality back in the day for around six dollars. I’ve been adding to it from time to time as they’ve managed to reduce their debt burden and get their business in order. Before the pandemic, the stock reached 20 dollars, but then fell to around ten. Maxar’s CEO had already announced that the pandemic would slow down their deliveries and might weaken demand, but perhaps somewhat surprisingly, they announced a new multi-satellite order a week ago.

Before the pandemic, the satellite business was hyped up as practically the new internet. I don’t know if the enthusiasm has waned a bit, but KPMG just predicted the industry would be worth 600 billion by 2030: https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/-every-business-will-be-a-space-business-by-2030---says-kpmg.html.

Business will be big once services become easier to use (price and applications). Until then, development is expensive, and with the current crisis, many startups will run out of money. However, the sector is starting to show signs of maturing, and many players are already doing business and will likely stay afloat.

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Found this interesting commercial:

Which stock exchange can I buy this Marooned company from? Looks like advanced satellite technology.

New rocket center in Northern Norway in the coming years:

Just bought my first “space stock” https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/22/why-maxar-technologies-stock-just-popped-18.aspx right before the jump. Beginner’s luck.

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GomSpace Sees Growth Ahead Again, Corona Did Not Diminish Interest in Satellites:

Nordjyske: Lost Million-Dollar Orders and Had to Fire: Now GomSpace is Hiring Again

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Gomspace’s stock price seems to have been skyrocketing for several days. At the same time, its local competitor AAC Clydespace’s stock price is stagnating. Do you have any information on what might have happened with Gomspace? I can’t seem to find any major news.

I own AAC and I’m wondering if a competitor has gained some advantage that I’m not aware of :slight_smile:

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I haven’t found anything special. The course might be correcting back to where we left off in March; there was some CEO interview a week ago but nothing significant came out of it.

I’ve been comparing and following Gomspace and Clyde Space companies for a while now. After browsing through previous reports, I decided to allocate about 10% of my portfolio value to Clyde Space shares. Now, I’m aiming for next year and the turning of earnings per share to positive. If this doesn’t happen or problems arise, it will effortlessly fly out of my portfolio towards orbit. I’m stretching the part of my investment plan where I should internalize the business operations of my companies pretty well… :grin: but it’s such an interesting industry that I wanted to get in on it with some stock!

What key figures, in particular, should be compared between these two companies, in your opinion?

Also, the opinion of someone more knowledgeable about order backlog interests me: AAC orders are about half of the market value. Is that a typical ratio generally, and what could be concluded from it? What is the timeframe for those orders?

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I found this report in a discussion on a Swedish forum:

At the end, there’s a comprehensive list of companies operating in the satellite market.

In the satellite business, there’s a huge disruption underway. Starlink could revolutionize the entire market to such an extent that many Old Players are in trouble. OneWeb already went under, nominally due to Corona, but practically because financiers realized that the system is far too expensive to build and maintain compared to Starlink, which can put satellites into space at “cost price” with reusable rockets, i.e., at less than half the price of competitors.

If I could invest in Starlink and/or SpaceX, I would buy a large number of shares. For other providers, I’m not quite as enthusiastic - many will fare like the German automotive industry when Musk is on a roll… and SpaceX’s moat is on the order of a decade. Europeans woke up late again, and their own reusable system is on the drawing board, but it’s at least five years away from its first flight, and it could take another year or two to be reliably reusable and cheap to launch - especially if SpaceX’s even somewhat incredible plans with Starship come to fruition by then… i.e., a fully reusable heavy launch system that puts 5-10 times as much as others into orbit per launch, with costs only for fuel and maintenance… It’s been compared to a DC3 competing against fabric-structured biplanes that go to the scrapyard after every flight.

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Article about the market, especially nanosatellites, manufactured by Clyde Space:
https://www.wfmj.com/story/42435311/nanosatellite-and-microsatellite-market-growing-at-a-cagr-213-key-player-gomspace-lockheed-martin-l3harris-sierra-nevada-corporation-aac-clyde-space

And here, Clyde Space is mentioned:

I must admit that my own AAC Clyde Space purchase was hastily timed, as shortly after the first batch, the CEO sold a considerable amount of shares at a price lower than the market, and owners have been selling off quite a bit since then. Swedish small investors are at least expecting a good bounce by the end of the year, but we’ll see how the fundamentals develop :smiley:

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GomSpace Order from ESA

https://spacewatch.global/2020/08/esa-and-gomspace-sign-contract-for-implementation-of-the-juventas-cubesat-in-support-of-the-hera-mission/

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Have the prices of these satellite connections come down, or can they be brought down? Among my portfolio companies, Ubiquiti Inc. offers hardware at an incredibly competitive price, enabling internet connections for streaming in remote areas at a remarkably affordable cost. The products have been particularly popular in developing countries and remote areas in the Americas, etc.

So far, satellites haven’t had much of a place, at least in terms of price. When the connection travels through the atmosphere, additional problems arise through connection drops, slowness, etc.

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AAC Clyde Space short-term reflection. Some kind of RSI divergence on 1H and 1D timeframes (image 1H). Still in a downtrend, hopefully next we’ll start to make a higher bottom above the previous ~3.1 SEK and then a proper uptrend. New bottoms have always been less lower than the previous ones, and the decline has slowed significantly in that regard. Q2 report is approaching, hopefully it’s not a disappointment, I’ll be in the wilderness then and won’t be able to throw in the towel :man_facepalming: A positive surprise will surely make this jump properly after such a selling wave. On the other hand, selling might anticipate a proper corona hit and poor results.

Another observation from an Avanza forum member, today on the buying side there’s a new broker CSV, no previous purchases, now in the morning 275,630 SEK worth:

Thanks for reading, these are mainly for my own support to keep holding the red line.

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Excitement is high while waiting for AAC Clydespace’s Q2.
The current share price is still quite close to the corona lows and clearly behind the indices. On the other hand, Luis Gomez stated firmly in his presentation before the holidays that they have not seen any impact from the corona (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNp3_wh0dpU&t=203m19s, good prese imo)

Additional info about AAC: (Scottish) Godfather of Space Craig Clark and his intoxicating Scottish accent speaking a week ago: Craig Clark - CSO of AAC Clydespace

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AAC Clyde Space
AAC Clyde Space: AAC Clyde Space Shares Commence Trading in the US (beQuoted)
2020-08-19 21:45

                AAC CLYDE SPACE SHARES COMMENCE TRADING IN THE US

2020-08-19 AAC Clyde Space AB (publ)
AAC Clyde Space announces today that its shares have begun trading in the US on the Pink Market under the symbol “ACCMF” and that it has applied to have its shares trade on the OTCQX Market, the highest tier within the OTC group. This will make AAC Clyde Spaces shares more accessible to US investors, who can now trade the shares in US dollars in the US. US investors can find current financial disclosure and real time quotes for the company on www.otcmarkets.com www.otcmarkets.com

The decision to join the OTCQX market is part of the companys strategy to expand its activities in the US, the worlds largest and most dynamic small satellite market.

“AAC Clyde Space is one of the world leaders in small satellites, providing companies and institutions worldwide with cutting edge, dependable space subsystems and satellites. Joining OTCQX is an important step in expanding our visibility and operations in the worlds largest space sector. We currently have several opportunities coming up in the US and look forward to see new U.S. based stakeholders and investors joining us in our future growth”, says AAC Clyde Space CEO Luis Gomes.

The US market currently represents more than 30% of AAC Clyde Spaces business, with sales ranging from small components to full Space as a Service solutions. The companys customers in the US include universities, government organizations and established satellite operators, who use AAC Clyde Spaces subsystems and satellites for a variety of purposes - communications, Earth monitoring and space exploration, among others.

The OTCQX Market is operated by OTC Markets Group, an American financial market for 11,000 over-the-counter (OTC) securities. The OTCQX market includes both multinational companies seeking access to U.S. investors and domestic growth companies. Companies are not required to be registered with or report to the SEC but must undergo a review and thereafter post financial information with OTC Markets Group. Trading hours are 9.30-16.00 US Eastern time.

AAC Clyde Space AB will maintain its primary listing on Nasdaq First North Stockholm where it has been trading under the symbol AAC.ST since 2016, advancing to the Premiere segment in 2019.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Please visit: www.aac-clyde.space http://www.aac-clyde.space or contact:
CEO Luis Gomes investor@aac-clydespace.com mailto:investor@aacmictroc.com
CFO Mats Thideman, investor@aac-clydespace.com mailto:investor@aacmicrotec.com , mobile +46 70 556 09 73

The information in this press release is such that AAC Clyde Space AB shall announce publicly according to the EU Regulation No 596/2014 on market abuse (MAR). The information was submitted for publication, through the agency of the contact person set out above, at 21:45 CET on 19 August 2020.

The following documents can be retrieved from beQuoted
AAC-Clyde-Space-press-release-2020-08-19-ENG.pdf-http://www.bequoted.com/beQPress/download.asp?Id=39962

ABOUT AAC CLYDE SPACE
The group AAC Clyde Space offers turnkey solutions and services from mission design to on-orbit operations, including reliable customizable satellite platforms in the range of 1 to 50 Kg and a full range of subsystems for cube and small satellites. With unrivalled flight heritage and end-to-end service, AAC Clyde Space enables customers to reach their mission goals through a single, trusted point of contact.

AAC Clyde Spaces shares are traded on Nasdaq First North Premier Growth Market. Erik Penser Bank AB, e-mail certifiedadviser@penser.se mailto:certifiedadviser@penser.se , telephone +46 8 463 83 00, is the Certified Adviser.

OT: While waiting for a small rise.. for the love of the game I bought a big pig when the price started with a four. So, about +35% to break even.. If I could get even a small hint of what Q2 contains, I would gladly drop the KH by doubling the pig, but I don’t dare to go completely blind :upside_down_face:

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