Alright, the preliminary growth figures for 2025 and the Jan 1, 2026 gross written premium growth figures have been released, which are very significant for the full year’s growth (approx. one-third). In about every third of Prote’s insurance contracts, the policy period is the calendar year, and thus Jan 1 is the first day of the period.
2025 GWP growth is 14% in local currencies, which I think is a solid level compared to Prote’s history. In contrast, the Jan 1 growth is an outstanding 25%, of which the French market, opened in 2025, accounts for 47%!!!
This means they have really won over clients there. Hopefully, more information regarding French profitability will be available in next week’s earnings release.
Based on these figures, I updated my tables a bit, and the base case gives a target price of 620-650 with a P/E of 17.5, depending slightly on the development of investment assets, for which there will be more info next week. I’ll publish the updated table then. It might also be worth considering whether a P/E of 17.5 is too conservative a valuation, given the growth, ROE, and track record.
Edit. Corrected an error regarding the January 1st share of the full year’s growth.