Quarterly reporting is behind us, and the stock price, as usual, takes a dip. Well, there had already been such a significant rise that shares acquired in June are now twice as valuable.
Reflected by revenue, the valuation is indeed high – with annual revenue (~20 MNOK), the price/sales would be around 70-75. This wouldn’t make sense unless that cash cow was already a bit closer.
According to the very cheerful CEO’s projection, revenue will already increase more next year. I assume this means talking about 2-3 million Tlens orders (per large OEM’s AR glasses order) plus Twedge and design services on top of that.
The unit price of Tlens varies depending on the application, finish, and order volume, but if one estimates the average unit price for a large order to be 10-12 NOK per piece, we are at least in the right ballpark. The rest depends on timing.
Don’t expect [next year] yet super high volumes, but higher volumes
The most significant volume pull is expected from AR/MR glasses. Based on the CEO’s comment, it’s pointless to guess which of the big OEM players are involved – they are all involved, one way or another.
All major OEM’s work with both TLens and TWedge…AI/AR/MR glasses.
Some may only be doing benchmarking, and the final product will appear – if it appears – towards the end of the decade. Meta is likely to be the first, with others following, and Chinese companies close behind.
On the scanner side, the plugin lens compatible with the M12 interface is good for lowering the adoption threshold of the product. Based on the presentation, the Tlens component could also be connected to a Raspberry Pi, which opens up the market for hobbyist builders.
I won’t include the traditional pipeline image of design wins and ongoing PoC projects. The numbers are already so significant, especially in the AR/MR sector, that new order announcements will come sooner or later. There’s no need to guess if Tlens will break through in the market – it already has.
After the Q3 report, there was also an announcement about a design win for AR glasses in the medical sector. Based on a quick search, it doesn’t seem like a significant cherry on top of the cake, but rather a small startup for whom getting their name in a listed company’s press release is a reference in itself. Still, everything counts.
With good feelings towards next year. Watching the stock prices, there will be rallies and dips in both directions, but on average, I predict rising levels for next year as well!