Norbit ASA - Kasvua pinnan alla

The Seller has successfully sold 3,252,949 shares in the Company (the "Offer
Shares"), which equals approx. 5.1% of the Company's shares outstanding, at a
price of NOK 200 per Offer Share, generating a total consideration of approx.
NOK 651 million.

The trade was made at a price of 200 NOK. Yesterday’s closing price was 214 NOK, which is a small discount.

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NORBIT today announces that segment PIR has received a new contract manufacturing order, valued at approximately NOK 120 million from an undisclosed European client in the defence and security sector. Deliveries under the order are scheduled for late 2025 and early 2026. The contract follows another recently received award of approximately NOK 100 million for initial deliveries early first quarter 2026.

It is not entirely clear when the contract will be recognized as revenue, but this would happen in Q4/25 and Q1/26. Additionally, another contract of approximately NOK 100 million for Q1/26 is mentioned.

For comparison, the PIR segment generated NOK 149 million in Q4/24 and NOK 161 million in Q1/2025. Now these two orders cover a share of over NOK 200 million.

The defense and security sector is still booming!

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Today, Norbit’s stock is facing a slight headwind, and I believe the explanation can be found in Kongsberg’s Q3 report! Kongsberg’s Discovery, a peer to Norbit’s Oceans segment, had a rather soft quarter in terms of revenue. EBIT margin, on the other hand, developed very nicely, and order books also filled up. The company commented that there is still significant demand for the segment’s products.

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Tomorrow morning, Norbit will release its Q3 results. Unfortunately, I won’t be commenting on it immediately here (audience sighs)! Work interferes with hobbies, and I’ll only be able to write about it in the afternoon/evening. However, I will try to link the results here.

Above are the company’s own comments from the Q2 review. Below are the analyst estimates for the quarter. I would think the biggest fluctuation will come with Oceans, as visibility there is only a few weeks ahead.

Revenue 517MNOK (+39% YoY)
EBIT 90MNOK (+67.6%)
EPS 1.08 (+72.5%).

So, another rather monstrous quarter is expected… The company itself anticipated revenue to be higher than analysts predict. Let’s also remember that last year’s Q3 was a disappointment in terms of both revenue and profitability. Will the same happen again? I publicly admit that I have kept a few euros in my pocket, with which I can buy more shares if nothing catastrophically bad is found in the report, the updated guidance is reiterated, and the stock price shoots downwards. :slight_smile:

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https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/8a452d04-ac11-4f78-a69a-6316fd479794

In the third quarter, NORBIT delivered revenues of NOK 505.4 million, an increase of 36 per cent compared to the corresponding quarter of 2024. The reported EBIT result was NOK 75.4 million, representing a margin of 15 per cent.

  • The Oceans segment reported revenues of NOK 192.4 million, a 22 per cent increase from the third quarter of 2024, driven by strong sonar sales. The EBIT margin for the segment was 21 per cent.
  • The Connectivity segment reported revenues of NOK 107.5 million, a decline of 3 per cent, and an EBIT margin of 15 per cent. The decline was due to lower deliveries of On-Board Units, with some orders being postponed to the fourth quarter.
  • The Product Innovation & Realization (PIR) segment reported 96 per cent revenue growth to NOK 224.1 million, and an EBIT margin of 18 per cent. The increase was largely due to stronger demand from the defence and security sector.

Considering the outlook, the strong balance sheet and financial position of NORBIT, the board of directors decided to resolve an extraordinary dividend of NOK 3.00 per share based on the financial year 2024, bringing the total dividend to NOK 6.00 per share for the said year.

The outlook for NORBIT remains positive, with full-year revenues are expected to end up between NOK 2.5 and NOK 2.6 billion, while the EBIT margin is forecasted to be between 24 and 25 per cent for the year.

In short: Great result, even more was expected. Oceans OK, Connectivity a small miss, PIR a small miss. For Connectivity, some goods were pushed to Q4. Need to read the Q4 preview from the company later tonight. Guidance reiterated.

Additional dividend, too much cash. The company is constantly looking for M&A opportunities but is quite picky (which is good): in this case, the dividend is perfectly fine for me.

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Q3 2025

Let’s write a clean message, as the previous one was already getting a bit overflowing.

Most important first:
Additional dividend (3.0 NOK/share). The last day entitling to the dividend is 17.11. Ex-dividend date 18.11. Payment date approx. 26.11.

All in all, a very successful quarter. Tremendous growth, even though Q3 is usually a somewhat quiet quarter. It’s nice to see that this is also developing into a truly significant part of the year in terms of results.

Oceans

Connectivity

This segment was a clear disappointment for me this quarter. Of course, there was a logical reason for the decrease in revenue, as the delivery of goods had to be postponed to the next quarter. This involved challenges in material procurement, as well as capacity shortages.

GNSS OBUs (On-Board Units) are emerging as Connectivity’s new spearhead, which began to be delivered to Toll4Europe (more about the deal earlier in the thread).
image

PIR

With the defense and security sector as its main driver, PIR already delivered its second consecutive top quarter.

Overall

![image|690x384](upload://1J6xwAKjXW5DGHVD7H9A YXsR3ng.jpeg)

Outlook for the rest of the year

Guidance reiterated, and in the conference call, management was confident that the guidance would be met. The fourth quarter is always quite busy and there’s a lot to do. The biggest variable, once again, is the Oceans segment, whose forward visibility is very limited. However, the company has been a very precise guide, so in my opinion, there’s no reason for major concern. I am perhaps most looking forward to whether new guidance will be given in connection with the Q4 review, and whether the company’s 2027 targets (which will be achieved already next year) will be raised.

These figures estimated by the company itself total 820 -890MNOK (for Q4). Q1-Q3 revenue now stands at 1711MNOK. Thus, the range with current information would be 2530-2600MNOK for the full year 2025. This would be quite a comfortable range, as it would still leave a bit of leeway to the lower end of the guidance. EBIT-% has been 22% for the first 9 months.

All in all, a tremendous quarter and year so far. The market had slightly higher expectations, but I used this as a buying opportunity.

Valuation

The year is almost over, and one can already outline the conclusion of the current year. If the company reaches its guidance, the EV/EBIT would be 19.1-20.7x (upper end/lower end of guidance).

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New order for Connectivity for the GNSS devices I mentioned in the upper post. The order is worth approximately 160 MNOK, with the familiar Toll4Europe as the buyer.

  • Deliveries H1/2026
  • Repeat order from Toll4Europe.

"We are proud to be given the trust from Europe’s leading tolling service provider. This repeat order demonstrates the strength of our ability to deliver tailored technology and our strategy to act as a technology partner for our client”

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Mifi AS, a company owned by Finn Haugan, chair of NORBIT ASA, has today purchased 6,500 shares in NORBIT ASA at an average price of NOK 169.69 per share.

The Chairman of the Board has been buying some shares. Quite a significant addition to his previous position. Let’s hope the Chairman is up to date on the company’s business developments. :wink:

I have also increased my holdings and will continue to buy without hesitation if the price still drops!

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Q3 2025 Conference Call

The share price has slightly drifted down after the earnings report, and I decided to take a closer look at the conference call’s content. I’ve listened to it a few times now and tried to figure out the reasons for the share price drop (if any other than top and bottom line misses).

Oceans

  • Strong sales to America, backed by several factors.
  • Demand for sonars is very broad: from mapping solutions to autonomous vessels (surface and subsurface).
  • AUV customers form a significant and growing part of the business. The long-term potential is huge, as only about 5-6% of the world’s waters have been explored. Unmanned vehicles are ideal for this task.
  • Q3 margins showed slight softness (gross). Q3 was “only” 71%, when the normal range is 72-74%.
  • Comparison is complicated by last year’s Q3 Olympic rental project, which raised the margin to 75%.

Connectivity

  • The GNSS project’s design phase was slightly delayed, which slowed down the production ramp-up → some Q4 revenues will shift to Q1 2026.
  • Reasons for the delay included the product’s complexity. The CEO mentioned in the call how engineers were challenged to develop something difficult so that competitors wouldn’t immediately follow suit. This was reportedly successful.
  • In the long term, the driver is the 2G network shutdown in Europe (2027-2028): Former OBU (On-Board Unit) systems were on this network → need for new ones. When outlining the market size, there are about 6.5 million trucks in the main European market, with an additional 400,000 annually. Furthermore, the EU is expected to increase/expand road usage charges → need for OBUs for monitoring. Over the last 5 years, Norbit has supplied 2 million modules (of which GNSS is one).

PIR

  • Most of the revenue comes from contract manufacturing (Norbit does not own the product but manufactures those designed by the customer).
  • Norbit can choose its customers (cherry-picking), and it strategically seeks profitable and scalable partners.
  • Primarily off-the-shelf components, while Norbit’s self-designed chips are produced for Connectivity.
  • Core competence is clearly in module integration and system expertise, not chip design.

Partnerships and Capacity

  • Three years ago, Norbit acquired a small factory in Trondheim that produced sonar components.
  • Important for capacity, even though there is no direct need to own a comprehensive mechanical factory.
  • The aim is to ensure supply reliability and scalability in the long term.

M&A Strategy

  • Norbit seeks strategically suitable companies where cultural and business value-add criteria are met.
  • High valuation multiples have not been the biggest obstacle, but rather strategic fit and genuine technological added value.

I still feel very comfortable as a Norbit owner! There were no changes to the guidance, so I’m a bit puzzled by the market’s reaction. The only thing that slightly bothers me is that orders from the security sector have grown massively. This means manna for the near future, but is this just a temporary situation in Europe that defense is being invested in? Hopefully not. :slightly_smiling_face:

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And again, a new larger PIR deal, scheduled for approximately Q1/26. This single order is larger than the Q1/25 (161MNOK) PIR revenue. :smiling_face_with_sunglasses:

NORBIT today announces that segment PIR has received contract manufacturing
orders, valued at approximately NOK 170 million from an undisclosed European
client in the defence and security sector. A majority of the deliveries is
scheduled for first quarter 2026.

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https://www.finansavisen.no/tdn/2026/01/12/06526500/norbit-dnb-carnegie-tar-opp-dekning-med-hold-kursmal-175?zephr_sso_ott=7rPPpY

News from a couple of days ago.

Carnegie initiates coverage of Norbit.

175 NOK, “Hold”.

  • Good potential to continue growth in the long term
  • Risks in earnings forecasts in the short term
  • PIR growth is important for the company’s long game; on the other hand, it weighs on margins.
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Quick update on expectations for next Wednesday, Feb 11th, interim report. Q4 will be wrapped up, and thus the entire 2025 will be in the books. Overall, the company guides for 2500-2600 MNOK in revenue for the full year, with an EBIT margin of 24-25%.

Q4 expectations by segment (company’s own)

Oceans:
~ 230 MNOK revenue.
Connectivity:
~ 200-240 MNOK revenue.
PIR
~ 390-420 MNOK revenue.

The company’s own range for Q4 revenue is therefore 820-890 MNOK, while analysts expect 846 MNOK. Analysts are expecting ~28% EBIT margin (236 MNOK), which I believe the company might slightly miss due to high PIR revenue (lower margin). If they reach the company’s own expectations, it will be another monster quarter, with year-on-year growth in the tens of percent.

Peer Kongsberg’s Discovery segment

Kongsberg reported its results a couple of days ago, and Discovery, which is highly comparable to Oceans, had a strong quarter. The company exceeded expectations overall. Kongsberg’s results highlighted strong demand for AUVs (unmanned vehicles) and the continued need for them: Norbit mentioned the same in their Q3 conference call, and I assume Norbit will also see strong revenue for Oceans from this in Q4. On this front as well, I’m heading toward the Norbit report with a positive mindset; there seems to be momentum across the entire market.

As an aside, Kongsberg is spinning off its Maritime segment into a separate listed company. The spin-off will happen on April 23rd this year when it lists on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Consequently, the “original” Kongsberg will retain the Kongsberg Discovery and Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace segments. Very interesting—if the parent company takes a significant hit after the spin-off, I might be interested in this gem as well ;).

Another top-tier quarter is expected from Norbit on Wednesday—no need to worry! Let’s hope we also get something in the way of guidance for this year. The medium-term targets are going to be absolutely crushed, as they would only require about 5% revenue growth this year to be met.

ps. The company is expected to see 16% revenue growth and 14% EPS growth this year. If this is achieved, the company trades at EV/EBIT 18x and P/E 23x.

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NORBIT delivered record-high revenues of NOK 2.5 billion million for the financial year 2025, with an operating profit (EBIT) for the full-year period at NOK 555.4 million, representing a margin of 22 per cent.

The fourth quarter also set a record, with revenues reaching NOK 791.1 million - an increase of 42 per cent compared to the same period in 2024. The EBIT result for the quarter was NOK 178.4 million, representing a margin of 23 per cent.

  • The Oceans segment reported revenues of NOK 213.4 million, a 21 per cent decrease from Q4 2024, with an EBIT margin of 26 per cent.
  • The Connectivity segment reached revenues of NOK 190.2 million, an increase of 25 per cent, and an EBIT margin of 28 per cent.
  • The Product Innovation & Realization segment achieved a revenue growth of 173 per cent to NOK 407.9 million, with an EBIT margin of 22 per cent.

I’ll be updating this throughout the day as work permits!

At first glance, this report leans toward the disappointing side. It fell short of both the company’s own guidance and analyst estimates.

Important part: medium-term targets will be surpassed a year ahead of schedule, as was already known here.

The target for 2026 is to deliver more than NOK 3.0 billion in revenues and an EBIT margin improvement compared to the 22 per cent reported in 2025. The targets are supported by growth and improved financial performance through operational leverage, scalability and maintaining cost discipline.

New long-term ambitions toward 2030 will be presented at the second quarter reporting in August.

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PIR’s share of revenue rose from 31%→43% and defense revenue from 103M→696M, which is the most significant change in this report. ROCE rose to 34% (27% the previous year). The Oceans segment was weak in Q4, mainly due to an export license issue in the security sector and the postponement of renewable energy projects — management expects Q1 to improve. 2026 guidance is >3.0 billion NOK with margin improvement, and the 2027 targets were surpassed a couple of years ahead of schedule. New long-term targets through 2030 will be released in August. Based on this report, this morning’s dip looks illogical and like a good buying opportunity.

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Let’s get back to the Q4 report by segment. The quarter was the best in the company’s history. I’m listening to the conference call at the same time and will add more details as I go.

Oceans

  • Basic sonars are performing well, Wingheads are not.
  • Usually the strongest quarter, but clearly weaker this year. As @stockenstain wrote above, for a few orders, delivery likely shifted to Q1.
  • Oceans shouldn’t be viewed just quarter by quarter, but over a longer period: full-year development was very good.
  • New innovations during the quarter, long-range sonars for mapping deep water bodies → expands the company’s TAM.

Connectivity

  • GNSS OBUs are rocking, as explained in the messages above. The Toll4Europe cooperation provides nice support; the 160MNOK order received during the quarter will be delivered during H1.
  • Only part of the large 160MNOK order was delivered in Q4, and part shifted to Q1’26. A slower-than-expected production ramp-up was the reason.

PIR

  • An absolutely insane quarter driven by the defense sector. This is a double-edged sword: Is it just a temporary hype, and PIR will return to low-margin stagnation, or will this become the new normal? If it does, Norbit would turn even this historically weaker segment into a real powerhouse, significantly brightening the company’s future (as good demand can be expected across all segments).
  • Demand in the defense sector remains high.
  • Q4 EBIT margin rose from 14% to 22% year-on-year, and for the full year from 10% to 19%.
  • Two large orders are estimated to be delivered during Q1’26 (120MNOK and 170MNOK).
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Christina Hallin, director and primary insider of NORBIT ASA has on 11 February 2026 purchased 1 000 shares in NORBIT at an average price of NOK 185.00 per share.

Following the transaction, Hallin owns 1 000 shares in NORBIT.

Small streams…!

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