The most beautiful, dearest, and best one will deliver its results next Thursday.
Company’s own expectations for Q2’26:
- Oceans: 210-250MNOK
- Connectivity: 225-250MNOK
- PIR 370-390MNOK.
Total: 805-890MNOK.
In recent quarters, the company has slightly missed its own targets; let’s hope for a change this time. I am following one segment in particular with great interest…
I am monitoring:
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Revenue. It cannot start to fade now. I would put it this way: revenue of 900+ MNOK would hit it out of the park. If it stays below 800MNOK, I will be disappointed. That range in between is an acceptable area. However, what’s even more important to me is where the growth comes from. Now, Oceans needs to raise its head. The segment has been a bit of a drag for a few quarters; it’s time to go back to the roots and show that Oceans is still growing well and churning out good margins.
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EBITDA-%. 30%+ would be fantastic. Anything below 27% would be a clear disappointment.
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2030 targets. In connection with Q2, Norbit will present its 2030 targets. I believe this will have a greater impact than the result itself (assuming the result is roughly in line with analyst expectations). The previous strategy was for 2027: >2.75bn NOK in revenue and 20% EBIT margin. This year, the company is set to achieve >3bn NOK in revenue with an EBIT margin of about 22%. In other words, the old target was smashed a year in advance.
A few more thoughts on the release of the 2030 targets. This is purely my own speculation.
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Revenue 5-6bn NOK. This would mean going from this year’s approx. 3.1bn revenue to 5.5bn, a CAGR of about 12%. So far, we have grown significantly faster, but this could be a good starting point for four years out, which can later (of course) be revised upwards.
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EBIT margin 22-24%. The company has already proven it can achieve that kind of margin, and I believe it is entirely possible if/when revenue growth starts to slow down at some point (which I, of course, do not hope for). Also, Oceans returning as a spearhead would boost the margins of the entire outfit to support the lower-margin segments.
What would I be disappointed in? If the revenue target was 4-4.5bn NOK or, conversely, if the EBIT margin remained at 20% (unless growth was being chased harder, at something like the 6-7bn NOK level).
In 2030, if the company reaches the 5.5bn NOK revenue I’ve outlined with about a 23% EBIT margin, the EBIT would be 1.265bn NOK. Let’s assign an EV/EBIT multiple of 20x, which would put the share price at approx. 400NOK / share.
It will be interesting to hear the targets and then the execution to reach them! The company’s track record of reaching the previous two targets is staggering: both times, the goals were achieved a year early.
Warning, in case anyone in the thread is still unclear: I am long on Norbit 
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