I don’t know if anyone is interested in the company, but I noticed that the company’s ownership list is a real stock market all-star lineup in addition to the Koskinen family.
On the TOP100 list are, among others:
Anssi Vanjoki, who made a career at Nokia
Mika Reini, former
Yes, Koskinen is of interest.
A few questions came to mind.
Has the slowdown in timber trade been reflected in supply and thus in prices? Is Koskinen slowing down its purchases?
When does the company expect a market turnaround in construction? Does the company dare to fully stock its warehouses to ensure supply at the time of the turnaround, or does it rely on capacity? Often during turnarounds, those who have goods can make more money. What is the company’s current approach: boldly full steam ahead or cautiously with the handbrake on?
During downturns, costs are cut and personnel are optimized, as has been seen in the industry, and this often causes uncertainty among staff and weakens team spirit. How does Koskinen concretely ensure the well-being and retention of key production personnel?
Because development is always a safeguard for the future. Does Koskinen have promising innovations in the pipeline?
Regarding the market dynamics of the sawmilling industry, I would also be interested to hear Pahta’s comments on what kind of ripple effects these tariffs imposed by the United States on Canada have?
These tariffs are by no means a new thing, and this U.S. - Canada softwood lumber dispute has been on the table since the 1980s with varying intensity (if you are more interested in the topic: Canada-US Softwood Lumber Trade: When Trade Becomes Tactics – Russ Taylor Global).
But what has been seen during/after the summer by Canadian forest industry players and provincial-level ministers/federal-level premiers is very active traveling to Asia; that is, Canada is now trying to push the softwood lumber that has so far gone to the USA to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc. What I’ve heard from industry grapevine is that, for example, the Japanese have already started changing suppliers. On the other hand, at the same time, European companies have started more aggressively filling the vacuum left by Canada in the United States, as the internal supply of the United States will not replace this for years/decades to come (according to some estimates, this would require the establishment of 60-70 new medium-sized sawmills).
Has Koskisen’s sawn timber division started to anticipate these market changes in any way?
Good thing. Koskisen Plc can quickly adapt to the market situation. I have many friends working at Koskisen. Then when there’s ground-level information on how things are going, and what’s happening at the factories. I must add…
Revenue is growing well over 20% in both Q3 and YTD. But why is the “Materials and Services” item growing over 30%? That is pulling the profit down quite rapidly.
Most of the growth is due to increased volumes, which naturally raises material and service costs in the manufacturing industry. The disproportionate increase in material and service costs was likely driven especially by the revenue’s emphasis on the lower-margin Sawmilling industry (incl. the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä) and the rise in log prices. Koskisen presumably used inventories purchased at higher than current prices during the beginning of the year.
Koskisen’s Q3 figures were undeniably weak compared to the reference period and expectations, even if the impact of that write-down were to be excluded. The comment is here and the webcast starts soon here.
Companies often report employee satisfaction in their massive annual reports. Koskinen’s eNPS in 2024 was 4, which probably isn’t very good, though not a bad figure either.
Otherwise, surveys would provide valuable data, but since these surveys are usually conducted using the (e)NPS loser metric, which tells nothing about employee satisfaction, the figure is practically useless. The mathematics behind NPS figures were disproven over 10 years ago, but it is still seen everywhere in business arenas filled with animal spirits and kitchen psychology.
https://businessoverbroadway.com/2018/05/07/data-science-reveals-three-problems-with-the-nps-dogma/
For example
6,6,6,6,6,6,6,6,10,10
And
0,0,0,0,9
Give the same eNPS result.
Antti interviewed Koskinen’s CEO Jukka Pahta regarding Q3 
Topics:
00:00 Introduction
00:10 Q3 development
02:31 Production challenges
04:09 Inventory write-down
05:07 Demand in the logistics sector
06:26 Iisveden Metsä integration
09:25 Impact of tariffs
12:09 Koskinen does not focus on the United States
13:08 Construction
15:50: Raw timber price has come down from peaks
19:27 Increasing wood reserves
20:35 Briquette production started
22:06 Priorities for next year
Here is an equity report from Viljakainen after Koskisen’s Q3.
Koskisen’s Q3 report was a disappointment in terms of results, but this was partly due to one-off factors, and forecast changes for the coming years ultimately remained quite small. In our view, Koskinen has clear earnings growth potential in the coming years as the construction cycle gradually recovers and the company’s significant investments of recent years reach their cruising altitude. However, we believe this has already been baked into the stock price with over 30% increase this year, which is why the stock’s return expectation for a 12-month horizon remains around the required rate of return.
Quoted from the report:
Financial position remains strong
Koskinen’s net gearing ratio was a reasonable 25% at the end of Q3 (Q3’24: net gearing ratio 8%). Thus, in our opinion, the company’s balance sheet is in good condition, even though significant capital has been allocated to implementing the growth strategy in recent years due to the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä and recent investments. Investments also continue, especially in the Panel Industry and the drying capacity of Järvelä’s new sawmill, but the pace of organic investments is likely to be slowing down.
Reminder, ROAST starts soon, i.e., around 2:00 PM
Here are the timed topics for the ROAST:
00:00 Jukka Pahta
01:34 Koskisen
02:30 Why Koskisen
03:50 Koskisen as an investment
06:10 Can the sawmill business be good
09:20 How Koskisen stands out
12:00 Investment dynamics
14:30 Product development
16:10 Why not buy at market price
17:10 Scale
20:00 Finnish wood
23:15 Degree of wood processing
27:00 15% EBITDA target
35:00 Bark beetle
37:04 Why EBITDA
38:20 ROCE
42:00 500 MEUR target
43:48 Finnish construction market
Here are Antti’s comments on how Koskisen is launching the second phase of the Panel Industry investment program with investments valued at approximately 7 million euros.
Koskisen announced on Friday that it is launching the second phase of the Panel Industry investment program. The investment is a continuation of the company’s previously announced three-year investment program, which aims to increase plywood production capacity and improve productivity. The news was expected, and the scale of the second-phase investment program is also roughly in the ballpark of our expectations.
Here are Antti’s comments from the pre-silent period call organized by Koskisen.
Koskisen held a pre-silent period call on Monday and published the questions and answers discussed during the call. They can be read here. Based on the company’s messaging, Q4 proceeded operationally and in terms of the market largely in line with expectations without significant surprises. We do not fundamentally see a need to adjust our Q4 forecasts for Koskisen based on the content of the call.
The number of shares matches Pekka Kopra’s holding.
Over 7 million euro block trade in Koskinen shares | Kauppalehti
Here are Antti’s pre-result comments as Koskisen publishes its Q4 results on Friday.
We expect Koskisen’s revenue and earnings to have grown clearly from the comparison period in Q4. Growth and profitability have been supported especially by the strong volume growth of the Sawmill Industry and the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä. We expect Koskisen’s 2026 guidance to indicate revenue growth and, regarding the midpoint of the range, an improving adjusted EBITDA margin. We expect Koskisen to raise its dividend by approximately 40% to EUR 0.20 per share. In our view, the forecasted but, especially in terms of scale, still uncertain earnings growth is for now fairly appropriately priced into Koskisen’s share (2025e and 2026e: adj. P/E 20x and 11x).
Here are Antti’s comments on Koskisen’s Q4 report.
Koskisen’s Q4 results reported this morning were mixed. Koskisen grew by 30% in line with forecasts, thanks to the acquisition of Iisveden Metsä and volume growth in Sawn Timber, but profitability fell clearly short of expectations. The results were particularly weighed down by high wood costs in Sawn Timber and seasonally lower sawn timber prices. The guidance for 2026 was also more cautious than market expectations regarding profitability. The dividend proposal rose 17% from the comparison period to EUR 0.14 per share, but both our and the consensus forecasts had expected a larger increase. According to our preliminary assessment, at least Koskisen’s consensus forecasts are subject to downward revision pressure for this year, driven by the Q4 profitability and the guidance.
Antti interviewed Koskinen’s CEO Jukka Pahta about Q4 and the company’s outlook, among other things.
Topics:
00:00 Start
00:11 Development at the end of the year by business segment
01:06 Two-sided development in the panel industry
03:23 Impact of the pick-up in construction and renovation
04:41 Increased order backlog for birch plywood
05:52 High wood costs and fallen sawn timber prices in the sawmill industry
07:55 Wood procurement
09:13 Significance of the price difference between logs and pulpwood
11:21 Pricing of wood chips
12:10 Price development in the sawmill industry
13:42 Central European wood market
15:50 Situation in Japan
17:40 Background factors for the guidance
20:27 Profit distribution proposal
Here is a new company report on Koskinen from Antti.
We reiterate our target price of EUR 9.00 and our Reduce recommendation for Koskinen. We slightly lowered our near-term forecasts for Koskinen as the guidance for the current year was a notch more cautious than we expected. In our view, Koskinen has clear earnings growth potential in the coming years as the construction cycle gradually recovers and the company’s significant investments in recent years reach cruising altitude. However, we believe this is already appropriately baked into the stock (2026e: P/E 12x), which is why the expected return on the stock does not currently exceed the required rate of return.
Here are Antti’s comments from the call before the quiet period.
On Tuesday, Koskisen published the Q&A from the call before the quiet period regarding key themes for the first quarter of 2026, which seemed to paint a more cautious picture of early-year business development than our expectations. Although the market situation has largely remained in line with our expectations, technical challenges at the Järvelä sawmill, exceptionally cold weather, and high energy prices have burdened the production volumes and profitability of both units in the Sawmill Industry segment. On the other hand, demand for birch plywood has remained good, and the order books for the Panel Industry segment have been stronger than usual at the beginning of the year. We will update our forecasts if necessary before Koskisen’s Q1 results are published on May 15th.
