Koskisen is a unique Nordic SME in that its share price is at its all-time high.
The annual return for those who believed in the company during the 2022 IPO has also been a comfortable just under 15% per year. The return has come from rising multiples and mainly moderate dividends, as at the time of the listing, the company had just emerged from a very strong earnings cycle and, in hindsight, the stock’s valuation at the IPO price was very low.
As the title of the recent extensive report states, I believe that thanks to the massive investments of recent years, Koskisen’s earnings power is on a stronger foundation than before, and the company could have nice earnings leverage when European construction eventually begins to recover. On the other hand, there are no signs of a cyclical turnaround in the construction sector yet, and the impact of the war in Iran on inflation and market interest rates may push the recovery further ahead. However, in light of the overall picture formed by several valuation methods, the stock is neutrally priced on a one-year horizon, as expectations have already risen to some extent with the approximately 40% price increase over the past year. Therefore, despite the potential, we remain in a cautious “wait-and-see” position regarding the stock.