When Kesko once again reached figures starting with 17 in November, I ran through my own scenarios one more time. And so it happened that we are once again on board with Kesko. I jumped off when Euribor climbed to around 2%. I remember being annoyed that I hadn’t dared to make the same move at 1% a moment earlier. When it climbed 2 percentage points in 5 months, the trend would have been clear even to a blind man halfway through…
Behind the decision is not a single fundamental change, but rather that in the updated scenario analysis, several different factors began to emerge, whose probability, according to my analysis, has steadily increased. In short, themes whose increasing probability drives Kesko’s value creation capability:
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New Citymarkets: The competitiveness of Citymarkets has been clear for a while. But now we are in a situation where a couple have already opened this year, and 6 or 7 more are coming in the next few years. The main competitor in this category only has 4, and several of those are upgrades of “already strong S-markets.” At least Ideapark, Haapaniemi, Paavola, Ritaportti, Redi, and Espoo are capable of capturing new market share from the main competitor. In summary: In the growth of hypermarkets in the 2020s, the first half went to the Co-op, which was awake early, while in the latter half, Kesko, which was slightly late, is relatively stronger.
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Logistics: The biggest investment will start paying for itself from late 2026 (Rauhala stated that initially there will be adjustments and warm-ups, and efficiency benefits will be measured out in H2/26). In addition, Nurmijärvi is expected to materialize as growing cash flow towards the end of the decade.
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Customers’ purchasing power. In 2 years, consumers’ purchasing power has already improved by almost +5%. Next year, in 2026 (3-year), growth is expected to reach +7% - +8%. This means we will finally reach and possibly exceed the 2020 level. Continued steady wage development, moderate inflation, and tax cuts, especially in Kesko’s daily consumer goods trade core segments, provide a steady positive underlying sentiment for Kesko. Furthermore, consumers have aggressively paid down loans for 2 years, and buffers have already been accumulated in accounts – in other words, very sensible moves by Finnish consumers. Once these “mandatory and sensible” moves have been made, the increased purchasing power will translate relatively more strongly into Kesko’s revenue in 2026 than in 2024-25.
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Scope and Probability of Alcohol Legislation: In my view, we are now far enough along in the government term’s work that I dare to increase the probability of this. In Kesko’s Wolt vs. the Co-op’s Starship deliveries, Kesko will have at least a temporary significant competitive advantage over the Co-op and Lidl. Tesco, Ocado, Auchan, and Woolworths have all reported the great importance of alcohol. Home-delivered alcohol has a relatively high share in home deliveries; it increases the average purchase and improves profitability. Many chains have also reported that alcohol is also a clear retention tool in e-commerce, meaning buyers remain customers longer and purchase more often. And when these results are reported from countries without an alcohol monopoly, I see no reason why this effect would not be even relatively greater in Finland. Kroger, Tesco, and WW have all actually stated that the most important product category as a driver of customer loyalty is alcohol?!? In the UK, Sainsbury has also reported that distance selling of alcohol improved store safety, reduced shoplifting, and increased staff job satisfaction. In summary: Finns + liberalizing alcohol monopoly + liberalizing alcohol legislation + evidence of alcohol’s significant positive impact on e-commerce from abroad + Kesko’s strong position in home deliveries = relative competitive advantage and value creation capability! By Q4/26 at the latest, Rauhala will report how “We have seen particularly strong growth in home deliveries, which has been boosted by the new opportunity to order drinks home for, for example, pre-Christmas parties.”
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Wines and percentages? In addition, I have previously noted that generally in Finnish daily consumer goods trade, Kesko innovates, the Co-op copies a couple of years later, and Lidl minimizes. If/when alcohol percentages in Finnish grocery stores rise during this or the next government term, Kesko’s retailer model is best suited to capitalize on such changes. You have found Finland’s overwhelmingly best beer selections in Citymarkets for years. In Prismas, the selection has been gradually increased; Laune, Pirkkala, and Kupittaa have had 200 different beers in their selections for years! A week after wine becomes available in Finnish grocery stores, Hannu Aaltonen will have a 3x larger selection of wine than Turku’s best Alko in Hansakortteli – and at a lower price. And politically supporting this: the National Coalition Party, the Swedish People’s Party, the Greens, a large part of the Social Democrats, the Finns Party, and the Left Alliance – it’s only a matter of time. This change also represents a clear capture of market share from Alko, where margins are notoriously good, and every wine bottle buyer can find their own personal expert salesperson (whom the customer pays for). Kesko will sell its wine bottles for a euro less. The answer to “What would go well with…” can be found from AI and Google for free; at Alko, it costs at least a euro per bottle…
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Changes in Pharmacy Legislation. Kesko benefits from the probable liberalization of pharmacy legislation, as over-the-counter medicines and health-related volume products become part of the daily grocery basket. It’s easy to increase purchase frequency and average purchase, utilizing an extensive store network and efficient logistics with lower unit costs than pharmacies. And of course, even if Plussa loses to the green card, it will easily beat pharmacies’ own loyalty programs in data monetization.
In these two previous points, in situations of change, Kesko’s retailer model is a clear advantage. Overall, I believe that Kesko overestimates the strategic benefits of the retailer model in digitalizing retail. And for value creation, it would be good if Kesko strategically further reduced its retailer dependence, as it has already done with Onninen and K-auto in recent years. The retailer model could be a good internal driver with a 20-25% share, but its strategic importance will diminish as omnichannel, digitalization, automated logistics, and the importance of data grow ever larger. But I admit that in these changes, the Retailer is at their best! In Lahti, the retailer experimented with the first self-service checkouts in a couple of years (when they were introduced in Finland), at the Co-op, the board of directors in the “bravest co-op” ponders for a year longer, and Lidl discovered their benefit 15 years after others. 
- Trump. Trump’s nonlinear and unconventional straightforward foreign policy has so far brought a calmer situation to the Middle East, Armenia/Azerbaijan, and Rwanda. I would still not be giving the guy a Nobel, but in 4 years, we have not been this close to a moment when (Trump forces) we get a (bad) peace in Ukraine. I consider it unlikely that the war would continue for another year with this intensity. Trump has the desire, and the ability, to make the continuation of the war too expensive for Ukraine (and Europe) and Russia. So I consider the probability of a bad peace to be rather high in Q1-Q3/2026. This has direct, but above all, indirect positive effects on Kesko. It is difficult to see how consumer confidence would not react to peace. Consumer confidence is most visible for Kesko in hardware stores, construction, and car sales. In addition, the (partial) opening of the border/trade is probable and will significantly increase commercial activity in Finland. Will Kesko go to St. Petersburg? Not for a couple of decades. Will people from St. Petersburg come shopping as soon as the border is open? Certainly. The local Intersport in Lappeenranta near St. Petersburg will achieve the largest growth percentage in the entire Chain’s history in 2026. The retailer can send me a message next Christmas if I was right…
Is there a risk of stagnation in Kesko’s stock price? Absolutely. But I see that at the moment there is also the possibility of several factors contributing to growth and profitability.* None of the above happens? I consider it unlikely, but possible.
- 1-2 of the above happens? A good basic scenario.
- 3-4 of the above happens? The stock price surprises positively.
- 5-7 of the above happens? Kesko is a relative winner in the latter half of the 2020s in the world’s most profitable retail market.
As a Finnish consumer and a net contributor to our national economy, it is naturally sad to state that Kesko’s biggest moat is the Baltic Sea, an aging population, an impoverishing national economy, and the people. The cooperative store is kept in check by the competition authority at the latest, Lidl has its own small (world’s largest) corner, and the most challenging new competitor is on the level of Tokmanni. The queue of new chains for the Finnish market is quite short. We are reasonably protected. Let’s revisit this in Christmas 2026, to see how my scenarios played out. 