Development as an investor

How do you develop yourselves as investors? Reading or exchanging thoughts with informed investors comes to mind first, but it would be interesting to gather different ideas from you on the topic here.

P.S. Reading tips can be found in this thread: Sijoituskirjallisuus - #10 käyttäjältä Julle - Viihde - Inderes forum

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I’ll start with a few thoughts on time management. Since there are only 24 hours in a day and most of us probably work, sleep, pursue hobbies, spend time with family, etc., the time available for investing is limited; thus, it should be used as productively as possible. At its best, investing is continuous learning and self-improvement throughout life, what could be better than that :wink:

A few ideas for time management that I personally aim for:

  • Minimize unnecessary staring at stock prices: they don’t rise or fall by the power of your gaze. In practice, you’re just following the movements of other investors’ (or robots’…) minds throughout the day, which isn’t very useful for your own actions.
  • I try to avoid reading the media as often as possible and instead focus on reading companies’ own materials, releases, and news, or supporting material such as analyses or other research. Unfortunately, the media’s incentive is often to sensationalize headlines about short-term phenomena, which does not support understanding the long term.
  • Limit reading time to good blogs and discussion threads: ignore the shouting and noise.
  • Focus on where the company will be in 3-5 years and look away from single-quarter changes. There are so many professionals competing in that scene that distinguishing yourself is very difficult. This mindset also helps to focus on what’s more essential, and away from short-term “noise”.
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I myself have learned a lot by listening to Inderes’ roasts. They know how to ask the CEO exactly the right questions that an investor should focus on. When is the next roast? And which company?

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August 21. Terveystalo :wink:

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Add:

  • Reading. At least start with Graham’s works, and then expand with other literature that each person finds useful in their own investing activities. I personally enjoy reading about the psychology of investing, it helps me understand my own emotions and market reactions. Reading may not necessarily give you a significant edge over others, but increasing your understanding is always good, especially if the goal is to get rich.
  • Podcasts. There are many good ones available in Finnish and international languages. :grin:
  • You should at least develop some Excel skills so you can input a company’s numbers and evaluate them a bit before making investment decisions. In my opinion, an investor who doesn’t spend any time on a company’s financial figures should just invest in an index. In reality, those individuals seem to be the most vocal in advising others on stock picking… :man_facepalming:

Reduce:

  • Staring at stock charts
  • Deep self-analysis without sufficient expertise on companies that are followed by dozens of stock analysts. Simply a waste of time.
  • I must mention separately: FB’s investment club group. Just by following that discussion and the unbelievable boasting of OMXH25 guys, my portfolio also started to grumble out of sympathy. I limited my visit to a couple of days. The same applies to Kauppalehti’s discussion forum, 95% empty talk and conspiracy theories.
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Lampenille: The best level on Kauppalehti is, on average, among all Finnish forums. Of course, it probably depends a bit on the topic what kind of people you find there, and it’s quite nice to see people waiting, for example, in IPOs for someone else to tell them whether to buy the company or not, without even trying to calculate the basic key figures themselves. People are really lost in IPOs without proper analysis, as happened with VMP, for example, which hardly anyone dared to join. Inderes actually does a lot of damage with those analyses in these IPOs, when you could allocate much more to yourself from the good ones without people doing what Inderes says… I haven’t stumbled upon the investment forums on Facebook.

…well, back to the topic:

  • I used to read some books, such as Van K Tharp, Lynch, Graham, and many others.
  • Nowadays, a few blogs and Kauppalehti discussions.
  • Inderes morning review almost always, and maybe a few others.
  • Sometimes a podcast, if I can be bothered…
  • Researching press releases and earnings reports, sometimes for companies other than those I already own. I sometimes go through all of today’s earnings releases here: Företagskalendern | Placera.se
  • Researching macroeconomics from financial news and blogs. I’ve put hundreds of these into Feedly, from which I can choose the most interesting ones.

btw. those cute instructions on the side about how to behave. It won’t be easy, even though I’ve read a lot of Eckhart Tolle lately.

Following the Inderes (Finnish investment analysis service) website is the best. In German, “Hier ist alles!”.

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Haha thanks Masse :wink:

“Mungerisms” are seen quite often, but in their succinct wisdom, they are not quickly worn out. Munger puts a tremendous amount of energy into self-improvement and continuous learning throughout life. Here are a few gems:

“Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.”
“Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom.”

"“I think that one should recognize reality even when one doesn’t like it; indeed, especially when one doesn’t like it.”

"Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day—if you live long enough—most people get what they deserve.”

Good thread!

Since time is limited, the time spent on investing should be used carefully!

I favor these:
Good investment literature, blogs, podcasts, Inderes reports, Berkshire Hathaway investor letters, Inderes

On the other hand, I do not recommend these:

  • Staring at stock prices. How else do you follow stock prices? Regularly, e.g., once a day/week/less often? Alerts on interesting companies?
  • Kauppalehti discussion forum. I haven’t followed the discussions there for years, but I doubt the quality has improved in recent years. Of course, good threads/usernames can be found. Tips are welcome. :slight_smile: Kauppalehti’s discussion search doesn’t seem to work anymore.
  • Following Finnish financial media online a few times a day is my vice. Everyone has their vices. I should get rid of it. Headlines about short-term phenomena do not support the big picture, so not recommended.

Good tips (especially foreign ones, e.g., USA, Sweden) related to blogs, podcasts, and usernames on Seeking Alpha are gratefully received!

What foreign financial media do you follow?

Reuters, Seeking Alpha, I follow stocks on investing.com… The best source, of course, is the companies’ own materials.

Here’s another excellent article from fund manager John Huber, whom I’ve mentioned in a few threads:

http://basehitinvesting.com/china-thoughts-and-the-circle-of-competence/

He starts by discussing China as a market (many opportunities, but competition is truly fierce), but towards the end of the text, he makes good points about staying within one’s circle of competence and intellectual honesty.

“The more honest you are intellectually, the more prosperous you tend to be. I have never met intellectually arrogant people who can successfully practice the game of investment.”

What could be more dangerous than intellectually dishonest people?

Huber also has good thoughts on staying within one’s circle of competence:

“What he’s saying is that sticking to your circle of competence is key, and not straying outside that circle requires being honest with yourself about whether you truly understand the investment idea that you’re currently analyzing. If not, then it’s best to keep learning, and not invest. This is very difficult to do, and since many investors are smart people, they convince themselves that they know more than they actually do about a particular investment."

It’s no shame to admit to yourself that you don’t know. :slight_smile: It’s a good reason to study more.

Huber reiterates his thesis that in an age where information is available everywhere and it’s difficult to gain an advantage from it, an investor’s only advantage is a) to think differently than others and b) to think with a longer time horizon than others. The markets focus on the next quarter or 12 months, which is when a retail investor should consider the big picture and figure out “what happens in year 4”?

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If you only invest domestically and believe that time is money and limited, then the Inderes website on your phone is the solution​:ok_hand:

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From Howard Marks, American investor, 12 good lessons on investing A Dozen Things I’ve Learned About Investing from Howard Marks – 25iq

I highly recommend it if you can read English!

Someone on YouTube asked for ideas on how to prevent hasty sales/purchases.

Do people here have any general tips in mind?

Simply developing routines and discipline would be best, but maintaining them 100% of the time can be difficult. That’s what makes this whole thing so challenging.

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It’s often said that forecasting markets is impossible, but what exactly does “forecasting” mean in that context? The validity of a forecast depends on its falsification criteria. For example, if I say “the stock market will fall sometime in the future,” this is true unless the stock market rises always and forever. On the other hand, stating such a thing has very little informational value. If I say “the general stock market index will fall exactly 5% tomorrow,” the falsification criteria for this statement are manifold, its informational value is high, and the statement is very likely false.

So, it’s worth making a forecast that is likely true and also useful. What do you think of the statement: “The stock price of a randomly selected company with a current P/E ratio greater than 20 will be at least 15% lower in the next two years than it is today”? If the forecast holds true, it’s not worth holding the company’s stock for long.

I’ve also become interested in Charlie Munger and his wisdom.

There are many things where one should hone their skills regarding investing, but one thing has perhaps remained too much in the dark for me: management analysis! This is a shame because no company is a good investment without capable management. A bad company can, on the other hand, be transformed into a good company or investment, at least to some extent, with the help of management. It’s easy to address this at this stage, and I definitely need to dig more into the history and CVs of management personnel when familiarizing myself with a company.

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The latest Inderespodi is excellent for self-reflection and analyzing one’s investor persona. I’ve only listened to the beginning, but I’ve noticed that if I’m not careful, I’ll become a total bull. When I started this hobby, I researched companies really thoroughly, read financial statements, and even looked for information about management on LinkedIn. Now, my last couple of stock purchases have been made on much flimsier grounds, almost with the principle of “buy now, there’s a sale…”

https://soundcloud.com/inderes/inderespodi-65-oletko-sina-bullero

Now I need to take a couple of steps back and develop a proper strategy and buying plans for myself so things don’t get completely out of hand.

Charlie Munger’s and Warren Buffett’s YouTube interviews are also great from the perspective of general life philosophy. They give the impression that a good investor is also a good person. Warren Buffett also said in one interview that not everyone can be a good investor, just as he isn’t a good athlete. It’s unrealistic to expect everyone in society to be able to understand financial matters for their own good, and those who can should help those in a worse financial position in society. WB also said that people should invest in their own communication skills. He admitted that he has constantly trained himself to be a better writer and speaker.

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Listens to Inderes podcast 62 and then always goes to the forum first to read everything, follows Juha Kinnunen and Mikael Rautanen and a bit of Sauli in those finance companies, then things are already going well :wink:

Podcast 65 was really funny and good, by the way.

It’s good to practice buying rising stocks in good companies too, develop your own style a bit. It’s good to scale purchases in falling stocks.

Something that has come to mind recently is, if you need money (cash), should you sell a good company completely? Why not a slice from a few instead, so there are no surprises where the sold company makes a big jump in its share price. And if something is interesting, could you take a small slice then so you don’t miss out completely…?

I myself absorb a bit of everything from this forum (from companies I’m interested in and I generally keep an eye out, people really nicely post links about all sorts of topics, I’m active with a couple of companies myself),
Of course, I check the reports and usually read the extensive reports in the evening too (they often have a similar structure to previous ones, so usually just noticing the important things is enough)

I like to watch management interviews and analysts’ interviews, and I also value body language etc. I often watch some interviews several times, I should probably watch at least Talenom and Basware now for next week’s releases…!

I probably have a pretty good memory / overall comprehension, and this hobby isn’t messed up by any computer games or mobile games etc. so this is my only digital hobby. Or maybe I’m just a bull.

Lately, I’ve been thinking about some expensive companies through my child’s portfolio, wondering if they would suit her portfolio which she will only get to manage in 14.5 years :smiley: that way even a higher P/E might taste good, if the long-term outlook is good, then one should probably think about most investments that way :smiley:

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I listened to that bullero podcast while out for a run. It was a good discussion and made me wonder how many people can actually follow a systematic strategy year after year without succumbing to bullero-panic-buying :joy:. Many lack the time, but are interested in direct stock picking. They jump after hot tips in every direction, and the long-term result is rarely very good. Who could come up with a way for bulleros to get the most important information in a small, quickly readable package? After all, not everyone can be someone who has the time and expertise to understand an investment target through extensive reports, so they just resort to recommendations/tips :grinning_face:. I even had to go to Wikipedia myself to read up on bullero :ok_hand:.

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The word “bullero” reminds me that in another discipline, or rather a hobby, that I love, there are also so-called “bulleros,” who are called by a slightly different name, which I won’t reveal here because I don’t want to label anyone. Among these “bulleros” are individuals who don’t seem to learn much from their mistakes and practice the discipline for decades at a rather poor level, including university professors and, in general, almost all professions are represented.

It took me a very long time to realize that they don’t even want to sacrifice their precious time to study and practice the discipline; they simply do it out of love for the discipline and the people involved in it. The discipline in question also requires some financial sacrifices if one wants to pursue it, as nothing is completely free nowadays. These “bulleros” can also be exemplary advocates for the discipline, even if they are not at an expert level.

I believe that among investors, too, there are people for whom wealth accumulation is not the only goal, but rather this is interesting activity and entertainment for them without any particular objectives. They are often optimists by nature and rejoice like children over their victories, and losses are quickly forgotten without any further conclusions. The above should not be confused with @Masse, who would only occasionally like to pay for this great entertainment, but primarily making a profit :slight_smile:

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Heey, there’s a little bull in all of us, for sure, no matter how much we deny it :slightly_smiling_face:

I listened to the podcast too. It put me in a good mood.

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