It’s also interesting to see when the owners of these now-resigned companies (DKNG, Penn) start demanding profitability over growth. The US market is just opening up (so there’s still years of growth ahead), but once the demands start to focus on operating profit, the lax investments in marketing and their own sportsbooks must end. That’s when the golden age for Swedish companies (Kambi, Kindred) could begin, as their strategy has been optimized for profitable growth from the start.
A characteristic feature of the market, of course, is that licenses are often granted for up to 10 years at a time, so the battle for market share takes place during these first few years. After that, customers are “in,” and the next step should be to focus on retention (bonuses, loyalty programs, raffles, etc.). US companies have traditionally been good at this (in other industries), but it will be interesting to see if they still have enough chips left at that point, or if customers will start migrating towards Kindred and Kambi (and other client companies).
If I had to guess the future of the US market (and why not the global gambling market) at this point, I believe the current trend will continue for another two or three years (thanks to loose monetary policy and the opening of new markets), but after that, we might see a quite dramatic shift in market shares (as well as company valuations).