Thanks. The article was written by an external entrepreneurial consultant for IonQ. I put Copilot to work and asked for a PDF summary of the article. This is what came out:
My own conclusion is that quantum technology is inevitably moving forward, and faster than generally believed. That is, within a couple of years, the number of applications will explode. At least IonQ can, with these “milestones,” tell us that this company is progressing with its roadmap, and thus within a few years, it will be proven that this quantum thing is not a hoax, but the newest technique in computer computation. It should not be pushed everywhere, but quantum computing will have significant impacts on the development of AI and research in many industries (e.g., materials research). This 99.99% quality level from IonQ is therefore significant news for the entire quantum computer industry.
Okay, good catch, quantum key distribution (QKD) is likely on the desks of many telecommunications operators right now. Researching and demonstrating this must be part of every operator’s tasks now. Otherwise, the operator’s management is not up to date.
I’m eagerly awaiting IonQ’s next earnings report - how the revenues of these companies acquired in recent months will be reported and what kind of development is predicted for them.
I picked up a picture shared by Desmond from X here, showing that IonQ is no longer a quantum company developing one thing (quantum gate reliability), but rather IonQ is an entire quantum technology architecture.
Chattanooga is a place where Einstein’s “spooky action” is already an everyday occurrence - quantum machines there will soon nicely communicate via entangled qubits. There’s almost Christmas magic in the air. What happens in Chattanooga stays in Chattanooga!
So, this electricity/energy company uses quantum technology for power grid management. In the USA, this power grid management issue is apparently very important. Since OakRidgeNationalLab is researching the same things, here’s an AI summary:
What’s special about ORNL is that this agency solves the most difficult problems in the USA; for example, it was involved in solving the atomic bomb in the 40s.
An investor’s views on IONQ (Budwell has been bullish for longer and has been right so far)
NVIDIA GTC for the early part of the week. Quantum is involved there; as far as I understand, IONQ is participating in a panel discussion or similar. Infleqtion is also involved here as one of them.
Intel won the CPU wars, Nvidia won the GPU wars — we’re going to win the QPU wars,” he told me. “We will start to break encryption 10 quarters from now, not 10 years from now. There’s this big myth that this is next decade. It’s not next decade, it’s in the 2020s.”
Regarding the grandiosity of his statements, de Masi belongs to the same league as Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, and Alex Karp. At least Jensen and Karp have probably surprised everyone, so IonQ will likely surprise us too by achieving its roadmap milestones. Now that the market is hot, two years can feel like a long time. But we have to keep enduring.
Doesn’t seem to be a completely valid forecast for revenue; it depends, of course, on whether mergers etc. have been taken into account. Everything will probably be redone, including guidance.
IonQ’s results fall into that category where each party can choose their side and justify their stance on these Q3 results. The bear says that the company made a 1 billion GAAP loss and is therefore a scam. Even quality-looking publishers on X state that 1 billion has been invested in R&D. Wrong, it hasn’t. The point is that IonQ has a warrant-type compensation model, which can generate accounting losses, but the money is not out of the company’s cash reserves. That’s why adjusted EBITDA provides a more reasonable basis for evaluating the company’s financial situation. Since the company likely has longer contracts, it can provide a relatively reliable forecast for the entire year 2025. Revenue will therefore exceed 100 million. And the company is burning 200 million from its multi-billion cash reserves. The aggressive bull says that the company’s cash reserves will last approximately 10 years with this burn rate. The cautious bull says that the company’s cash reserves are in good shape, and the direction of revenue growth is very good.
It’s worth listening to the webcast or reading the script above. There’s Iron Dome and hundreds of millions of projects in the pipeline, etc. As is known, networks and sensing are important drivers until proper calculators are available in 2027-
The research firm cited IonQ’s position in the “very early innings of commercializing its technology” as a key factor behind the more bullish outlook. Cantor Fitzgerald believes IonQ can capture 30% of the quantum hardware, software, and services market by 2035. This optimism aligns with the company’s strong revenue growth of 113.07% over the last twelve months.
As discussed here, I consider it likely that, if successful, IonQ will capture a much larger share of the market, at least in terms of computing. Cantor’s estimate included software, etc. In HW, it will at least capture the market share of whoever first brings truly useful machines to the field.
Regarding the grandiosity of his statements, de Masi belongs to the same league as Elon Musk, Jensen Huang, and Alex Karp. At least Jensen and Karp have probably surprised everyone, so IonQ will likely surprise us too by achieving its roadmap milestones. Now that the market is hot, two years can feel like a long time. But we have to keep enduring.
