Mega bump! Every quantum investor should see this, and someone more capable could link it to the QC thread 
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I had also previously referred to that Gidney & Ekerå paper, for example, when I was outlining these milestones against IonQ’s roadmap.
| Number of Logical Qubits | Enabled Algorithm | Year (benchmarked against IonQ’s roadmap) |
|---|---|---|
| ~1,000 | Small quantum demos, simple HHL, small-scale VQE/QPE, early optimization demonstrations | 2027-2028 |
| ~5,000-10,000 | Significant real-world advantage in optimization and quantum chemistry; Grover-type advantages in a broader space, optimistic Shor unlock RSA1024-2048 | 2029 |
| ~20,000 | “Certain” Shor-RSA2048 capability, extensive quantum chemistry and HHL applications | 2030 |
| ~100,000 | Industrial quantum utility: large simulations, extensive optimizations, ECC/RSA-4096 etc. | No outlook yet |
As noted in the presentation using a similar illustration, Shor-unlock will become possible “as early as” 2028, and that would indeed be the point when these devices start to have significant commercial value.