Harvia’s CEO was today on ROAST and I noticed that Harvia doesn’t have its own thread here yet. So, let one be established.
One of the most defensive companies on the stock exchange: stable profitability, cash flow, and a good dividend. The risk profile from the extensive report tells a lot:
Does anyone here have it in their portfolio or is it under consideration?
Under consideration, the roast piqued my interest and I need to delve into the comprehensive report. It might be difficult to get this with a 20% margin of safety, which I wouldn’t want to compromise on.
Edit: I’ve now gone through the comprehensive report. It seems well-managed and stable. Lower risk but lower return expectation, not a multi-bagger. I’m tempted to compromise on that 20% margin of safety, as the market is already mature and defensiveness is needed… 
I’m wary of the goodwill bomb (i.e. significant goodwill on the balance sheet) the company has on its balance sheet. Otherwise, I would have bought this for my mom’s lazy portfolio at least. 
I like it when a company has competent and qualified-looking management. Harvia seemed to have that based on the interview.
Good Roast today, even though it was quite light and the CEO didn’t break a sweat. Harvia has really clean papers, and boredom is good in investing, as with Sampo… Moving forward… I’ll start the buying project tomorrow.
It certainly seems like a high-quality and suitably unexciting company in every aspect. I’m a bit too much of a daredevil to consider it for my own portfolio yet, but it would be a good fit for my son’s portfolio, which has a longer horizon.
What exactly is causing Harvia to take such a strong hit on this interesting stock market day? It was supposed to be a defensive stock, and yesterday there was an announcement about the first good and growing dividend coming in the fall.
Gotta try and snag this for under 5.4€, even if I have to fund it from my emergency stash since payday’s still a bit away 
Well, the reason was exactly what you mentioned, the ex-dividend date, €0.18.
“The dividend will be paid to shareholders who are registered in the company’s shareholder register maintained by Euroclear Finland Oy on the dividend record date of October 12, 2018. The dividend will be paid on October 19, 2018.”
If I buy today, am I entitled to the dividend? Or did I have to be an owner by yesterday at the latest?
Hi,
Did Harvia have a conference call for investors/analysts because @Mikael_Rautanen commented on it on Twitter? Or was it an old post, as I recall Harvia’s CEO commenting something similar before?
https://twitter.com/mikaelrautanen/status/1057722017447854081
@otoo84 that was from this H1 conference, which was also on InderesTV 
Harvia puolivuosikatsaus 2018 webcast - 16.8.2018 alkaen kello 13.00 - Inderes
“No new hocus pocus on the things” 4:31 
The next Webcast is on 14.11.2018 when the Q3’2018 results are published. Harvia - Let's sauna. | Harvia
Yeah, that’s what I thought… So, let’s wait and see what quips we get on 11/14 
In honor of the great Saturday night Harvia sauna, I’ve put in a limit order for next week to buy 300 shares at 5 euros each. Is there any chance of success? What are your thoughts on the upcoming interim report and the share price development? Well, hocus pocus, but…
I think that over the next few months, the entire market and this stock will be swayed by Trump/Xi in December, the development of Italy’s economic problems, and FED signals about 2019 interest rates.
I am pessimistic about the aforementioned macro issues, but I consider Harvia a good buy at the current price for a long-term portfolio. I myself bought at €5.2 during the week after long consideration.
We’re certainly living in interesting times in the market, precisely because of the things you mentioned. That’s why I’m wondering how much lower the value of this company’s stock, which is otherwise valuable based on all the numbers and fundamentals, can still fall.
Short-term market fluctuations don’t really matter much to me, as I’m saving these shares, hopefully for a very long time, as an inheritance for my children. If I could just get those 300 more shares, I’d also be an owner of 1000 shares.
{“content”:“Interesting thoughts. I haven’t really thought much about the future development of the stock price myself; I’m more interested in the content of the earnings report. But I doubt it will offer any world-changing surprises.\n\nRegarding “fishing” for stocks, it doesn’t really make sense to me inherently (if one is buying a long-term investment). If you think a stock is cheap, buy it. If not, don’t buy it, simple. If you have a long-term case for your portfolio in mind, does it matter if you buy it for 5.0 or 5.3 euros? It wouldn’t be nice to skip a profitable target because of 0.3 euros, and I’m speaking generally now, not necessarily about Harvia.\n\nHarvia could cost 4 euros a month from now; nothing prevents that. Or perhaps the bottom has already been seen. I, for one, am not going to speculate.\n\nBut we’ve all been aware for a while of the risks that can affect the markets, and only now have the markets “properly” reacted to these risks. In my opinion, this correction was at least a year late, so is timing worthwhile? No, at least not with my skills and gut feeling. That’s why I’ve left speculation to others. I don’t have very good experiences with speculation myself.\n\nP.S. I’m not condemning “fishing” for stocks, however. It has its role in certain situations, e.g., by placing orders for quality companies at “ridiculously low levels” (fully concurring with @DayTraderXL’s latest blog, if you are indeed the same person! =D) Generally, however, I’ve simply bought a stock at its current price that I’ve seen as a profitable and affordable target, especially in the longer term. On these notes, have a good rest of your Saturday evening.”}
If the number of shares to be bought is, say, 100, it really doesn’t change life whether you pay 500 or 530 euros, or get 26.5 or 25 euros in annual dividends. However, I think it’s always worth thinking as if you were buying the whole company. Then you can better contextualize that 6 million euro price increase. It could be the company’s annual profit. Stock investment is a risky investment, and the price decisively determines your future return. In that example, a perpetual holder buying shares at 5 euros gets a 6% better return on investment than a perpetual holder buying shares at 5.3 euros, assuming the company continues to make a profit in the future and doesn’t go bankrupt. Someone buying at half price makes double the profit from this indefinitely. I think it matters. Long-term investing is about waiting – waiting for shares in the portfolio and, on the other hand, waiting to buy shares at a reasonable price. You can watch a company for years and miss many dividends, but you still make a better purchase by buying cheap.
There’s no benefit to a losing investment, and you shouldn’t buy stocks just to be in an underdog position. Profitability/loss is calculated simply:
current share price + dividends received - share purchase price.
From this formula, you can see that the lower the shares are bought, the larger the dividends received, and they offset the risk taken in buying faster.
Stock returns can also be divided into the following factors:
I use the word “change” because not all companies grow or even make a profit, and the stock market cannot be predicted. The first depends on your timing, and the last two on fundamental analysis. History includes periods when people hated stocks, believed the future was going to hell, and valued everything at a P/B of 0.5. The current situation is not that moment.
I could also jump on the same train… on Monday when the stock market opens again. This falls into the same category as Sampo, in my opinion. Boring is good! Especially now that it has dropped from its peak along with others.
Ok @Juippi, you were totally right. I’d like to correct my point a bit: does it matter whether you buy a stock for 5 euros or 5.3 euros? Well, of course it does! But this could be an eternal question: should a 5 euro stock then be bought for, say, 4.8 euros? Or a 4.5 euro stock for 4.2 euros, if the theoretical answer is always that it should? My point was perhaps that since it’s almost impossible to buy at the very bottom, is it even worth trying to aim for the bottom? What if you just buy the stock when it feels affordable and profitable?
We could debate this forever. Someone is eyeing a stock at the lowest possible level. Another just buys a stock when it seems affordable. A third waits for a big crash and makes their purchases then. In theory, everyone acted incorrectly: the first type might skip quickly rising sweet spots. The second never manages to buy at the bottom. The third might get closest to the goal, but even they probably can’t guess how low stocks will eventually fall.
A bit about the core of this thread, namely Harvia. I could be fairly certain that when the market really crashes (when the worst pessimism is on), it’s very likely that Harvia will also be cheaper than today’s price (whatever today’s price happens to be). So why not wait until then and not own any company right now? Difficult questions, and I don’t know what the best way to proceed would be. Although I myself am also waiting for unique buying opportunities, I don’t keep my entire portfolio in cash because;
-you can never know when stock markets will crash
-you can never know how much they will crash, and which stocks will take the biggest hit
-if (when) stock markets crash, I will resort to additional purchases with current cash
-by buying what one considers affordable, regardless of market conditions, one cannot be very wrong in the long run. But wrong nonetheless, one could always have done better.
As said, these are difficult things, and it’s hard to give a correct answer, especially for me who sometimes thinks about things a bit simply. But one tries one’s best.
P.S. This topic got a bit carried away for me, I should really be talking about Harvia!
I’m not writing a blog in Finland at the moment, so it’s a different guy 
