I thought this could be a fun and useful thread. The idea of the thread is to tell what you plan to follow in the markets weekly. You can perhaps tell what news you pay attention to, what you donāt, or what you might buy/sell. These are intentions, however, and therefore it is a plan. Feel free to share your thoughts on the upcoming market week!
It would logically be best to write opinions on Monday at the beginning of the week, but this time Iāll start on Tuesday with my own example:
Week 45: (2.11 - 8.11)
Elections
Like many others, I plan to pay close attention to the US presidential elections. Investors mostly hope for a peaceful victory, no matter which candidate it is. A clear victory for either Joe Biden (Democrat) or Donald Trump (Republican) is desired, as it speeds up the negotiation of potential aid packages.
Harvia Q3
Harvia will publish its Q3 report on Thursday, November 5th. Harvia is in my portfolio, so I eagerly await what the report brings. I expect positive news. I believe that renovation work on cottages/homes has not stopped despite the start of autumn, so I donāt expect business to slow down. After all, the corona is still ongoing, and people are spending more time at home. If a positive report comes out, I donāt believe I will sell my Harvia holdings. In my opinion, Harvia has good competitive advantages in the industry. In the event of a ābadā report, I will start monitoring for a potential increase if the stock price drops.
These were briefly the main points of my upcoming market week. If the topic interests you or you want to share your own plans/thoughts, feel free!
I operate monthly, in salary cycles I have outlines for the next couple of months, which will then become more precise. And then thereās a separate goal plan, which has no time limit but guides those short-term plans. So, little by little towards the desired portfolio
Half of this monthās goal has already been achieved, in the form of additional purchases of Peptonic Medical and AroCell. I still intend to add more New York Mortgage Trust and monitor Genovisā situation. 25 SEK is already oversold - RSI also at 25. That could give a nice extra boost for the beginning of the year.
The style is free! The good thing about monthly intervals, in my opinion, is that you can calmly follow the marketās activity. Rushing becomes less common
These are old holdings that Iāve been holding onto, hoping for something better, but I no longer have the patience.
Dynacert exit
If the next quarterly report doesnāt bring any new info on sales picking up, Iāll sell these. I believe time has passed this technology by and they are 5 years too late.
Plug Power addition
This will happen when the price is right and other exits are done.
One new opening
Iām monitoring a few different companies globally to replace the Dyna exit.
Nor do I have any weekly plans. But itās my habit to occasionally jot down - in the traditional blue-covered notebook on the desk - where to focus my thoughts and why. The last entries are eQ, Sievi and Altia.
The notebook is needed so that I can evaluate my actions later. (Iāll get me coat)
Buy Sampo, watch the earnings call, sell at the end of the day. Use the sold Sampo shares to buy more Harvia, watch the earnings call, maybe sell the newly bought Harvia shares, and find a new suitable target. It might not happen, but weāll try a small game now. If the outcome is terrible, itāll probably be the last experiment only small stakes in useā¦
The goal for autumn is portfolio diversification into the Swedish market: This week I will delve into Genovis, Smart Eye, and Embracer Group. Possibly buying Genovis today with a small stake because tomorrow is the Q3 release (supported by EUR/SEK being at a pretty good level, even if not at its peak).
Election monitoring is, of course, currently on, and Iāll play some election games with unlimited turbos if possible. If a real drop comes, Iāll go long with a big hand.
Nice topic for a thread. I also often write down my own thoughts, current situation, and future moves/reflections/plans, and my intention is to invest more in writing and the content of such a personal diary in the future. Of course, the activity in my portfolio is very minimal, but itās precisely good that even that minimal activity is backed by a lot of carefully considered and thought-out matters that Iāve been able to unload into a personal notebook, for example. I would see this thread as inspiring/challenging investors to ponder their short-term investment plans in general, and not necessarily only and exclusively the events of the next week?
Still, evergreen investment plans are written on the side of a matchbox, urging focus on long-term investments and fundamentals. This so-called weekly plan concerns short-term reflections and related matters. And isnāt, for example, āthe markets might decline soon, I wonāt sell anyway because Iām looking at the case 10 years aheadā a short-term plan as well?
But to the point. Regarding investing, I have surprisingly clear visions compared to a few weeks ago. The goal of gaining exposure to the IT market was nicely completed with the purchase of TietoEvry, and at the moment, thereās nothing else from that sector on my radar. I also got rid of a bit of chronic diversification anxiety. The cash balance is at an okay level, and thereās no need to increase/decrease it either. Future plans; Iām mainly monitoring how the general indices move during the elections. The intention is to add good companies if the markets decline. Iām not selling anything for now. If the US markets were to fall more significantly for some reason (which now seems somewhat unlikely), Iād like to add Berkshire. I regret buying so little of it during the corona dip, but Iāve now thought more carefully about the sizes of future purchases in advance (i.e., how many hundreds to add on top of a thousand haha ).
So BRK is on my radar, but I donāt see it as the end of the world if I donāt get more of it. I live comfortably assured; if markets fall ā Iām buying, if they rise ā I enjoy the ride. I donāt have to buy/sell anything, and in that state, I can handle dips and potholes well. Perhaps my next focus regarding investing will be planning a portfolio for the next heir. Iāll probably build a similar portfolio as for my firstborn. But this requires a few nights of thought and isnāt something for next week yet. Sometimes, though, I wonder why the hell save for offspring, let them save themselves, but oh well, too late.
During the rest of the year, I intend to get rid of one small-cap fund and transfer that money to a new investment or, alternatively, buy more of the pharmaceutical fund already in the portfolio. I donāt know what Iāll do yet, so Iāll keep my funds in the market until I make the move. Otherwise, Iāll try to resist the temptation to make hasty decisions and remain appropriately passive for the rest of the year.
Harviaās earnings release tomorrow will be a good test ā Harvia is my largest holding in the portfolio, and I have a feeling there will be some kind of larger price reaction in one direction or another. The goal is to do nothing, unless something truly revolutionary happens.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts; lots of good stuff in your comment! I myself am also in favor of having a plan behind an investment decision. There should be a good reason for buying, e.g., fundamentals, trends, or even supporting the company. To some extent, you see investors entering the game without familiarizing themselves with the companies, in other words, entering the field blindfolded.
In my opinion, itās important to follow a consistent investment plan. This way, mistakes are reduced, at least in my case. Monthly or even end-of-year plans have also come up in this thread, and why not?! Bring it on!
Consequences of the election results
It has become clear that Joe Biden has won the US presidential election. My plan includes observing the consequences of Bidenās election victory. I wouldnāt be surprised if Trump starts twisting everything possible after losing the election. The best-case scenario would be if this didnāt happen. Bidenās election could have positive effects on relations between the USA and Europe.
Kamux Q3
Kamux covers about 23% of my portfolio, so the Q3 results are on Fridayās agenda. Used car sales have been at last yearās level this autumn, which can be considered a very good thing given the coronavirus. So I expect good numbers from Kamux. For this reason, I increased my Kamux position a week ago. The average price hit perfectly at ā¬9.16, so this has already yielded an an 11.8% return. Looks good
Sentiment seems to be leaning more towards the bulls; likely a result of last weekās stock market rally. Typically, stock markets have turned green during US presidential elections. Tech stocks have risen exceptionally much.
Smart Eye
The plan is to start looking for an entry point for Smart Eye. Before that, however, I will thoroughly familiarize myself with the companyās business.
I have a rather boring plan for the future, no clear game plan. I took 3k⬠out of OST after I made quick profits from Alphabet, Biogen, and Smart Eye. Conveniently, my Nokia long position is in the red so the taxman canāt hit me. The investment target for the withdrawn funds: first home and an ASP account.
Now I feel that there isnāt much upside from the indexes at this level, so Iām following individual stocks and trying to find market overreactions to jump on board. I might buy Nokia call options as I donāt believe the journey will go down.
Edit: We got a corona vaccine, so letās reconsider the entire market view. The Nokia call options actually hit quite nicely.
Index rally!
Pfizer announced better-than-expected vaccine news, which sent stock market indexes soaring. For many, such market behavior can change plans. For me, rule number 1 is, donāt rush (in this case, in the market euphoria)!
Iām mostly sticking to my plan, even though two of my large holdings (Harvia & Remedy) pulled my portfolio down today. So Iām still waiting for Kamux Q3 news. As things stand, I intend to reduce my Kamux position by about 1/3, after which Iāll look for an entry point for Smart Eye.
Those of you who have ācorona losersā on board, enjoy the rally!
As the picture shows, sentiment has strongly shifted to the bull side with good vaccine news. I checked the status update on the Fear & Greed index on the CNN Business website, which showed the following:
Currently, investor expectations are very high, and such an overweighting of bulls is not healthy for the stock market. The risk level is quite high, which is why I need to be cautious for the rest of this week and the beginning of next week. Kamuxās Q3 will be released tomorrow around 9:00. However, Iāll be all ears for Petri Kajaaniās earnings live stream a quarter before the report.
Similar to last week, I will be tracking investor sentiment, and this time more closely. The market is very optimistic right now, and such an imbalance is dangerous for the market.
Fortum Q3
Fortum, my last holding for earnings season, will publish its Q3 report tomorrow around 9 AM. Iām hoping for good results, and if they come, I plan to lighten my Fortum position.
Smart Eye
Opening a position in Smart Eye is starting to look attractive. The stock has come down nicely over the past week, and with the Fortum reduction, I might already get my hands on it.
Iām still eyeing Smart Eye (Smart EyeƤ), just waiting for some minor technical support⦠for now, Iāll let it drop in peace. Iām also still dreaming of Genovis. Fortum (Fortumiaki) is also in my portfolio, but Iām not expecting anything more than a lukewarm result. Maybe it will go up or down, it doesnāt matter because I believe the movement will be small.
Iām also watching the SP500 index for a reversal. That weekly candle looks like Iāll have to watch until the end of this week to see if it corrects or not. And if it does correct, then Iāll play a small short-long game with turbos for a couple of weeks.