This thread is a continuation of the comment: Inderesin kahvihuone (Osa 2) - #10327 käyttäjältä Charlie_Younger - Sijoittaminen - Inderes forum.
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I almost bought Harvia but no… Ended up with Teknopuuhun. 
I wish I had Harvia…
Edit: Trilogy Coffee Room part 4 might start the same but with the companies reversed. 
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With these words, the long-awaited epic trilogy Coffee Room Part 3 began.
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Of course, sitting on your hands is probably the best. For me, it has become a constant rotation with three accounts, and I guess I enjoy it since I’m not working and have too much time (clearly). Harvia hasn’t always been my biggest holding; yesterday, it was Konecranes, sometimes Evo, the list goes on… 
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I absolutely agree that @Masse, as a noble, should open these coffee room discussions. It creates a sense of dignity when the blue-bloods give a celebratory speech.
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Mods, you can move my post to another thread and let @Masse open a new one with a beautiful poem, preferably related to money or even flowers. X)
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Then Masse will open the fourth part of the Trilogy.
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Part 3 changed from the Coffee Room, but today’s theme has been more like the Sauna Room than the Coffee Room
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After the Harvia sauna, you see who swims naked
- W. Buffet
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https://mobile.twitter.com/noobking39/status/1433435778944839680
Today’s theme meme.
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Uncle Kenobi shouts some higher-level wisdom from the upper bench
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August numbers, including the much-discussed domestic sauna company today 
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Let’s have some light late-evening banter
A look at the collective investment returns of Inderes forum members.
Let’s start by choosing a benchmark index. Nordic small cap would probably be a suitable starting point. It might need some tweaking, but I can’t say exactly how.
In sufficiently inefficient markets, one can achieve large excess returns by being systematically much better informed than the counterparty to a trade. However, Inderes forum members do not trade in very inefficient marketplaces. Thus, although there is a startling amount of information on the forum, the marginal benefit of the next piece of information in achieving excess returns is very small.
For example, in Haarum, the sheer volume of information certainly gives people a great sense of security. But the fact that every dropped nut in Muurame is noted in Haarum brings only crumbs of excess return compared to being slightly less informed.
Let’s throw out a figure: 1-2 percentage points per annum is the maximum benefit the forum’s flood of information can bring to forum members vs. the benchmark index.
By being a disciplined value investor – meaning that for the vast majority of the time one does not trade, but only seizes opportunities when they genuinely arise – one can achieve excess returns even in a relatively efficient marketplace.
For Inderes forum members, I have to set that value investor’s excess return to zero because people are impatient. It then slips into the negative because people move like a swarm of tiny fish, quickly changing direction in sync.
From costs, and especially spreads, I have to deduct at least one percentage point per year from the forum members’ portfolio returns. Perhaps I am too optimistic even there. How many people even stop to think that a spread is as real a cost as a commission?
Looking at the three points mentioned as a whole, Inderes forum members fall slightly behind their benchmark index. In some other stock market environment, when people manage to live more of their lives and trade less, performance improves vs. the benchmark index.
The crystal ball shows a glimpse of the future. With good luck, forum members’ portfolios before costs will go sideways for the next six months. We are that much behind the US in the cycle.
On the other hand, it is known that for fundamental psychological reasons, in the presence of hyper-valuations, the market is unlikely to go sideways for more than a certain amount. Compared to the huge expectations preceding the sideways period, the sideways movement will eventually get too much on the bulls’ nerves. And on the other hand, value investors are not going to catch it if speculators’ nervousness, agitation, and uncertainty increase. Either animal spirits take over again, i.e., we go up, or it crashes.
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Harvia was the third most traded stock of the day. It left behind small companies like Fortum and Sampo 
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This might also be an observation bias. There are certainly many active traders on the forum, but you are now assuming, based on the vocal individuals, that everyone is constantly shuffling stocks back and forth. Those who don’t trade actively don’t report it on the forum either
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In addition, there’s a small detail: some people appear to be actively trading based on buy/sell threads, but in reality, they’re playing with a small portion of their portfolio or a fun-money trading account, while most of their capital is tied up in long-term holds. Personally, I’d say 80% of my portfolio remains untouched during a month, and I might tinker a bit with the remaining 20%. Sometimes that 20% is cash, sometimes 0% cash, and I just fluctuate in between, gaining experience and trying to outsmart Mr. Index. The biggest returns come from holding well-chosen stocks long-term that have consistently outperformed the index over the past couple of years. And yes, the justification for their existence in the portfolio is considered at least a couple of times a month.
And yes, I’ve also repeatedly calculated the benefit of my monthly trading moves, and so far, I’ve consistently come out with slightly more profit than if I hadn’t touched that corner of the portfolio for the month. I don’t always win, but I’ve summed up these moves on a monthly basis, and cumulatively, there’s been a small excess return from the trades. Plus, it’s fun and gives me a reason to follow the market a bit more, so why not? My broker likes it too 
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Most of my trading activity consists of additions, either by dollar-cost averaging or buying the dip. Sometimes I end up buying some “nonsense stock” instead of adding to a proper one, and then I transfer those funds back to the right stocks. That’s about it.
There’s not much to report on my long-term holdings (ikiholdit), so the small, impulsive, or just-for-fun trades tend to stand out. This is a hobby, after all. However, these sums are very small compared to the overall portfolio.
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If you haven’t bought a falling knife that drops another 20% after purchase, or if you haven’t held a pharma stock through a negative Phase 3, have you even lived?
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Exactly. I’ve tried the falling knives, but I’ve managed to stay away from pharma stocks so far… 
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If any young people are reading this, I recommend this to everyone, but at the point where you don’t care which team wins which trophy and you’ve seen your partner in their birthday suit for years, you have to get your kicks somewhere.
Edit. Well, look at that, @Meri is back on the forum in another thread. Welcome back 
.
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