Harvia Forum or Haarumi - International Growth and Well-being Megatrends

I statistically examined the sustainability of growth in today’s Vartti. I used Harvia as one example. The company is interesting in the sense that when it listed and renewed its strategy to be more M&A-driven, the old company started growing faster again. To top it all off, the global sauna boom has accelerated the company’s pace. Still, 80% growth figures are difficult to repeat, and the company’s growth has slowed down, yet it remains statistically exceptionally fast.

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It’s not directly related to Harvia, but this type of fluctuation in growth rate seems to be more of a rule than an exception when looking at how individual companies have performed over a span of decades.

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In Verneri’s Vartti video, the same conclusion was reached, if I recall correctly. It certainly wouldn’t hurt if Harvia had managed to get (or would manage to get) into that even smaller group, i.e., the exceptions that prove the rule. Scientists are right in the long run, but human life is so short that I, at least, don’t have time to listen to them.

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Harvia’s own growth target is currently 10% per year, which would not be a bad performance at all (according to Verneri’s Vartti, this would mean Microsoft’s level). A couple of percentage points more with good performance and we would already be at Apple’s figures. The COVID-19 era disrupted growth as demand was brought forward.

If Harvia could maintain good profitability and simultaneously grow at an average annual rate of 10%, long-term investors would enjoy being on board. Quarterly and even annual fluctuations should be related to the longer trend, as seen from Vartti, growth fluctuates quite a bit annually even for large top companies.

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I agree with @Tomi_Valkeajarvi : it’s always nice to talk about Harvia! Now there’s a current analyst interview available in English too :slight_smile:

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Harvia is a nice company in that sense that one gets good geographical diversification. Currently, North America has been the engine of growth for the past couple of years, but the Nordics and Central Europe have also started to recover or at least show signs of stabilization. Add to this new growth opportunities from Asia, and it’s quite an interesting combination. I bet it won’t be many years until Asia (APAC & MEA) reports absolutely larger euro sales than the Nordics. Even if North America were to slow down slightly in the short term, there are indeed growth opportunities elsewhere. Harvia is by far one of the highest quality companies on the Helsinki Stock Exchange. And I even like that they don’t even provide guidance, so unnecessary quarterly gazing gets less attention.

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One must always remember where Harvia started. A family business, where there are certainly personal motives to succeed. An extremely well-managed company that has nimbly adapted to changing situations over time. I’m not worried about this at all, even

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Harvia is a rare company in that it has an incredible profitability track record. Few companies can achieve such a streak (18 consecutive years in the picture) of profitable results and with such good margins. A quality company that suits long-term investors well.

This image illustrates Harvia’s investment case quite well, what this company is about from an investment perspective:

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Regarding the attached image, looking back over the years, during my investment period (2018-present), the following changes have occurred, among others:

Revenue 62 → 175 million

Profitability improved slightly

Growing dividends paid totaling €4.11 (the share cost €5.00)

Share price risen €5.00 → €34.95 (+599%)

After all this noise, exciting turns, and fluctuations over the years, this has been an excellent investment for long-term owners. (The share was available at the offering price on the stock exchange for a long time even after the offering, so the return is quite real.) Harvia is a good example of how, in the long run, a good company is a good investment, even if it isn’t always so in the short term.

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LVMH’s Q3/2025 figures exceeded expectations, marking a clear turnaround after a weaker start to the year.

A positive signal for Harvia’s Q3 results expectations.

LVMH share price reaction +8.5%

Harvia will pay a dividend towards the end of October, and the Q3 earnings release is on 6.11.2025.

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Or alternatively, Harvia is a good example of how buying a good company at the right time can make it a good investment. Harvia at five euros in 2018 has been an excellent investment, Harvia at 60 euros in 2021 not so much. Time will tell if Harvia at 35 euros in 2025 is a good investment.

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Stock investments should be viewed with a long-term perspective; 5 years is still a relatively short time, 10 years is a better measure (meaning even from the IPO, it’s a quite short time from the stock market’s perspective, I’m a bit ahead of myself on this). Share prices fluctuate quite wildly in the short term, but in the long run, the fluctuations move to new levels in line with the company’s fundamentals. The main thing is that the company is doing well; the owners will eventually get their share from it.

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Well, now I really must say that past success is no guarantee of future success. You might not have meant this, but that’s how it sounds. I myself have owned Harvia since around 2021, so the reality is very different. Nokia also did well for many years. Furthermore, it’s a completely different matter to turn a 5€ company into a 30€ company than to then squeeze a 35€ company upwards from there.

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You are absolutely right, the past is no guarantee of the future, especially concerning stock prices, nor for the company’s operations. Even a good company can be ruined by foolish decisions. Looking at Harvia’s track record, its profitability has been and is top-notch; growth has naturally fluctuated due to economic cycles and other external factors, but profitability has remained good. At least for now, I don’t see any signs that Harvia is losing or has lost its competitiveness (I am, of course, monitoring the situation constantly). If competitiveness is lost and the company falls into poor profitability or losses, then, of course, the situation is entirely different.

My point is more that this is a true quality company, the kind you rarely see; that 18-year profitability track record is something you don’t see in an average firm.

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Harvia is such a young listed company that we don’t even have a single 10-year review period, let alone several to compare.

My point is that no matter how good a company is, it doesn’t help if the acquisition price is too high. If one bought Harvia for 60 euros in 2021, the share price would need to be at 120€ in 2031 to be called a reasonable investment (dividends are currently so small relative to a 60 euro acquisition price that they don’t significantly impact the calculation). Vs if you bought Harvia for 5 euros in 2018, the share doesn’t need to rise a single euro from its current levels at the 2031 review point, and it can still be stated that it was a good investment.

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To avoid just listing strengths, I’ve been thinking about what bigger long-term risks are associated with the company. The following quickly come to mind:

  • Failed large acquisition. Small acquisitions are not as dangerous, but if Harvia bites off a larger target and its integration fails or other unpleasant surprises occur, the company could lose some of its competitiveness for several years. There are two dimensions to this: on the one hand, direct financial impacts, and on the other hand, the fact that top management would have to spend a lot of time solving problems, which takes away from other operations.

  • New CEO. He has been in the position for such a short time that it’s not yet clear what he will achieve in terms of long-term development. Development takes time before results materialize. As one specific point, I would highlight that he has not invested in the company’s shares with his own money. One would somehow hope that the CEO would commit to the company with at least some self-acquired stake. (From an individual’s perspective, I understand many reasons why a CEO might not want to take a big risk with the company, but some kind of risk-taking would be good to have.)

  • Among medium-term risks, I would highlight the US strategy. Protectionism is increasing there, and companies have to adapt to it. That is, will Harvia have to significantly change its operating model and possibly make larger investments in the United States? These could have significant impacts in the medium term.

  • Muurame factory. If it were destroyed in a fire, it would take more than a quarter to re-establish production (according to Pajuharju). The company would recover from this in a year or two, but operational disruptions would be really significant, and during that time, significant customer losses could occur.

These are at least the bigger risks in the long run. What else comes to your mind?

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Let’s continue along these lines. Zlatan Ibrahimović has today offered his 65.7M followers on Instagram the Harvia sauna heater catalog shown below:

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Good insight on X’s side that for the “Christmas / holiday season” Costco would fill the floor with saunas.

https://x.com/ValueByMarkus/status/1978901841699037623

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To a novice like me, developing Thermasol would seem more potential than barrel saunas - at least if the target is those 10 million (?) swimming pool homes.

The big strength of the barrel sauna is certainly its easy installability and affordability, but on the other hand, these pool homes typically want a bit more or at least different aesthetics.. And for example, an outdoor shower is certainly a necessity with a sauna, if one doesn’t already exist.

On the other hand, Thermasol appears quite exotic and perhaps a bit confusing in its offering at first glance - though there are many good-looking “foundations”. Is the productization still in progress, however? Of course, there will inevitably be more interfaces than with a barrel sauna.

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Finns are a people of sauna, buckets, and long drink.

Now everything has been combined:

https://www.k-rauta.fi/tuote/kiulu-ja-kauha-harvia-x-original-long-drink-alumiini-harmaa/6417659045407

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