Trading is indeed sluggish. More active on earnings report days, my own shares were already sold after the Q4 report.
Q1:
- Flagship assets saw lukewarm 5% YoY growth, excl. casinotopsonline which is still in trouble
- Headwind from strict Brazilian regulation, player pool there decreased by 90%
- On the Paid side, experiments with weak profitability are being phased out, number of sites decreases to 70; Paid turned back to growth in March and continued growing in April-May
- In the call, it was mentioned that 2m+ was lost from both Brazil and the Paid side shutdowns, it remained unclear whether it meant revenue or EBITDA
- Focus on strong brand assets that Google gives more visibility to
- Revenue share and value of deposits at a healthy level
- Cost cuts, 8-10 MEUR savings expected
- 2025 outlook: revenue flat and 40-45% EBITDA, growth concentrated in H2
Analysts’ updated 2025 forecasts:
| ABG | Carnegie | Red Eye | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 115 | 121 | 120 |
| EBITDA | 49 | 49 | 50 |
| EBITDA % | 42% | 40% | 42% |
| Fair value | - | 26 SEK | 34 SEK |
So, a small decrease in sales and EBITDA across the board. For 2026, analysts forecast 10-14% revenue and 12-25% EBITDA growth. We are dependent on management’s comments here.
With these forecasts, EV/EBITDA 2025 ~5.5, competitors Betco 9 and Gambling com 8.
Links to reports:
ABG
Carnegie
Red Eye
The IR Director and a board member made small purchases of 10k and 9k shares after the earnings report at 13-14 SEK.