Ferrari - A great car brand, but is it a great investment?

One should sometimes consider what Ferrari does right, and likewise Lamborghini, even though Lamborghini is part of the VW Group (as are Bugatti, Bentley, Porsche). Lamborghini went bankrupt in 1978. Chrysler bought the bankrupt estate, later sold the brand to Malaysia, from where it was sold to an Indonesian investment group, from whom VW bought the brand in 1988. In practice, VW brought the brand back, brought capital, and Audi provided its all-wheel-drive technology and much other know-how. Now it has been doing very well for a long time. Indeed, few supercar manufacturers have succeeded. McLaren was saved by Bahraini sheikhs, Lotus by Chinese Geely, Aston Martin is constantly on Lawrence Stroll’s wallet. Maserati and Alfa-Romeo exist only by the good grace of Stellantis. There is a long list of defunct supercar manufacturers.

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Ferrari CEO Benedetto Vigna said that the company is preparing for potential tariffs in the United States and is planning some countermeasures.

He emphasized the uncertainty of the situation and stated that automotive companies are in the same boat regarding tariffs. Ferrari is also preparing for the launch of its first all-electric car, which is scheduled for October in Maranello.

“We are in a scenario planning phase to manage as best whatever will happen,” Ferrari CEO Benedetto Vigna said, without providing details of what these steps could be.

“You wait for the official number to be published,” he said, referring to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs “in the neighborhood of 25%” on global carmakers.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/13/ferrari-ceo-says-carmaker-is-ready-with-countermeasures-as-europes-automakers-brace-for-tariffs.html

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Ferrari buyers are so incredibly wealthy that Ferrari might be the least suffering of car manufacturers. I wonder if it’s like with luxury goods in general, that the higher the price rises, the more demand just grows. I doubt it, though.

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I don’t believe Trump’s tariffs affect demand. What’s more important is getting that Ferrari. Playfully speaking, the everyday watch on the buyer’s wrist might cost as much as the increased customs duty.

In addition to supercars, there’s an even higher class called Mega cars, whose most famous manufacturer is probably Koenigsegg from the neighboring country. It has been around for 20 years. The price of the 20th-anniversary model CC850 is downright cheap at 3.65 million USD. It’s typical to make only a limited series, in this case 50 units, which are probably already sold.

I remember one case in the 1990s when oligarchs had problems choosing cars (Ferraris and Lamborghinis were too common, and anyone could buy them). So, the criteria for selection became car availability and that it wouldn’t be easily encountered. One oligarch living in Leningrad then found a small car factory in France, Aixam, which mainly made mini-cars. Aixam decided to follow in Venturi’s footsteps and make a mega car. It was named Mega Trax V12, and its price was just under 2 million of the then French francs. The Leningrad oligarch bought one of the first ones (either five or six cars were made, depending on the source). The only reason for the purchase was that he wouldn’t immediately encounter a similar one. The car, however, had a sad end, as a Lada hit its side, and parts availability was zero. I don’t know what happened to it in the end…

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@Arimatti_Alhanko on tehnyt videon Ferrarista. :slight_smile:

In this video I will tell you the 5 key things you should know before investing in Ferrari. I spent more than 200 hours cracking the code behind Ferrari’s success. Please find my professional Excel model on Ferrari on my website.

Aiheet:

0:00 - Start 0:57 - Order book 1:44 - Revenue growth 2:33 - Earnings growth 3:27 - Total addressable market 4:31 - Valuation

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According to the article below, Ferrari’s customer base is getting younger, as 40 percent of new clients are under 40 years old, said the company’s CEO Benedetto Vigna. A significant change has occurred in about 1.5 years.

The article notes, as do almost all other articles, that Ferrari remains exclusive by limiting production, even as demand grows.

The article also points out that the company plans to unveil its first all-electric car on October 9.

“One client at 78-years-old had to buy a Ferrari and he said: ‘Look, I cannot wait two years.’ I said: ‘This is a motivation’,” Vigna told CNBC’s Robert Frank on Thursday.

“There is another guy, younger, 37, and he said: ‘When I am older, I would like to get the car before I am 40.’ I said: ‘Don’t worry, you will get it when you are 39,’” he added.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/17/ferrari-ceo-benedetto-vigna-says-40percent-of-new-clients-are-now-under-40-years-old.html

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Once upon a time, there was a guy X who liked German cars. Ferrari went public in 2015. However, guy X bought Mercedes shares instead of Ferrari. Later, the same guy swapped Mercedes shares for Porsche during the 2022 IPO. Guy Y, on the other hand, only owned Ferrari shares. What happened? :wink:

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Probably the biggest difference is in the companies’ organizations and management. Ferrari’s administrative organization (playfully speaking, before the organization was the same as Enzo Ferrari, now it includes several) is really small compared to those two, decisions are made quickly, the company has always been engineer-driven and understood to leave the design to Italian car studios.

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Supercar manufacturer Lamborghini, part of the VW Group, announced that it had achieved the best result in its history. Net profit was 3.09 million euros, with revenue growing by 16.2% and operating profit (EBITDA) increasing by +15.5%. Lamborghini delivered 10,687 cars last year. Lamborghini CEO Stephan Winkelmann considers the outlook for 2026 good and sees growth continuing. Growth will come from the Huracan’s successor, the Temerario (V8 with two turbos + hybrid), which has seen very strong pre-demand, even though the starting model costs over 360,000 dollars in the USA. Winkelmann did not comment on US tariffs, but analysts generally do not consider +25% tariffs a significant obstacle for cars in this price range.

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The same thing has tended to happen with the Revuelto as with Ferrari’s SF90; resale prices are falling, though not quite as much. Hybrid sports cars don’t reach the same levels as previous models. Aventador SV(J) models were selling for over a million even during the COVID era. Who knows what this bodes for new car sales.

From Ferrari, of course, if you want an allocation for rarer models, you need to have Romas, 296s, etc., in your garage just to get on the list. These certainly boost margins, but how long will customers tolerate this as things get greedier and greedier?

I myself have already picked out the cars I’ll buy for a future lottery win. Not a single hybrid is on the list. Internal combustion engines will remain the most desired among car enthusiasts for a long time to come, even if companies try to switch to electric in one way or another.

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Allocations are also sold to car dealerships, who are happy to sell them on, though they take their cut. For example, mobile.de, and from there you can just look for the model you want; it’s often still possible to configure it to your liking. Real rarities are often all already sold at the time of announcement.

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This is indeed the only car manufacturer that could interest me as an investment. Does it matter whether I buy from the German or US stock exchange? As a Finn, the German stock exchange seems like a smarter choice due to dividends, but is there anything else I should know?

It doesn’t matter which one you buy from, but it’s not listed in Germany, only in New York and Milan. Quote from Ferrari’s investor website:

”The initial public offering of common shares of Ferrari N.V. (“Ferrari”) occurred on October 21st, 2015 at USD 52 per common share (IPO price range: USD 48 – 52 per common share) on the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”) operated by NYSE Euronext. On January 4th, 2016 the common shares of Ferrari were listed at EUR 43 per common share on the Mercato Telematico Azionario (“MTA”, subsequently renamed Euronext Milan) organized and managed by Borsa Italiana S.p.A. following the spin-off of the Ferrari business from Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (“FCA”)(1).”

If you search on Nordnet, you’ll find Ferrari N.V with both US (RACE) and German (2FE) tickers. :thinking:

Ferrari announced it would raise the prices of some models by 10 percent after April 1st due to new US auto tariffs.

The increase could add up to $350,000 to the price of the F80 model. The company plans to unveil its first electric car in October. Ferrari believes that wealthy customers can withstand the price increases, but promises to treat them respectfully or something like that.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/27/ferrari-to-raise-prices-to-offset-auto-tariffs.html

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What will happen to Ferrari’s stock when robotaxis finally arrive and fill the streets? Will development proceed so rapidly that “personal” self-driving cars won’t even have time to emerge, or will traffic initially be a mix of human drivers, privately owned self-driving vehicles, and robots from mega taxi companies? Probably the latter at first, but then I bet privately owned vehicles will start to disappear, and eventually, humans as drivers will even be banned. Will anyone want to pay the price of a Ferrari for a car that can only be driven on a track, or that you can’t drive yourself but only ride in, idly turning a fake steering wheel?

What is the long-term future of this brilliant company and its stock, if in this utopia, self-driving becomes an everyday reality?

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In my opinion, robotaxis pose no harm to Ferrari. Ferraris are not ordinary cars that are driven daily. One could compare it to the fact that horses still exist and are used even though cars were invented. Many Ferrari cars also serve as investments. Furthermore, if all traffic becomes robotaxis, the appreciation of a Ferrari car might even increase, as if it were a “work of art.” Here are some of my own thoughts.

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Ferrari’s first quarter of 2025 went well; revenue and profit exceeded expectations.

Revenue grew to almost 1.8 billion euros, and EPS clearly increased from last year. Profitability also improved across the board, with the product sales mix and demand for personalization particularly supporting the results.

The company raised its full-year revenue forecast to over seven billion, but the adjusted earnings forecast fell slightly short of analysts’ expectations. Margins may naturally face pressure mainly due to US tariffs. At the same time, Ferrari announced six new models for this year, including its first electric car, the Ferrari Elettrica.

According to the CEO, the strategy emphasizes quality growth. Cash flow remained strong, indebtedness decreased, and the company used 300 million euros for share buybacks. In addition to product operations, the brand and lifestyle segment are also seen as growth drivers.

https://x.com/OptionsKings/status/1919711008647446609

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Ferrari has its margins in order - BYD, Tesla, and GM don’t.

https://x.com/LeverageShares/status/1920505185891189242
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One can at least say that it’s difficult for BYD and Tesla to reach Ferrari’s 30% operating profit margin with these gross margins :wink:

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