I couldn’t find a thread for Caverion yet, so let’s start one.
Is there enough evidence of a turnaround, and have the risks in the project business actually been brought under control so that unpleasant surprises can be avoided?
If the 6% EBITDA target is reached, the current price feels cheap, and the market also offers consolidation opportunities.
Views?
Lehtoranta seems to be implementing his plan pragmatically. Whether it will lead to the set goals is still a matter of faith. The worst sore, Caverion Industria, has been sold.
How will that absurdly large repair backlog start to show in construction companies’ business operations?
Easy question: Repair companies will start to succeed, and among new builders, only Lehto, that bane of Masse’s existence, once they get their ready-made modules into mass production all the way to Sweden - and cheaply.
Carpenter-Masse, from a family of builders
Promising numbers from Caverion (https://www.inderes.fi/fi/tiedotteet/caverion-oyjn-osavuosikatsaus-11-3132019)
What crushed the EPS, given that the operating profit and cash flow improved significantly?
Masse, the king of discussion forums, has already recovered from yesterday’s downfall of Nokia and the ensuing flood of congratulations. Now, back to work: above, Masse already summarized the future of the construction sector 1 month ago.
Is this just some old man’s ramblings again? Maybe, but there’s always a seed of truth in it… In the old man’s winning streak, in addition to yesterday’s Nokia, there are now also Titanium and Gofore. And those were tipped to the congregation well in advance - not afterwards.
Masse, somewhat surprisingly, also quite an analyst in the construction sector:house:
Inderes’ analyst’s comment was surprisingly bleak, in my opinion – then again, expectations are just that. And predicting a turnaround company is difficult.
In any case, my own view of the result is much more positive.
Awaiting Inderes’ buy recommendation for Caverion to turn green.
And there it is: Caverion-päivitys - käänne vahvistuu - Inderes
Evidence of a turnaround is starting to emerge, but I need more before I make additional purchases. I’ll stay on board with an average price of €5.29.
More evidence is falling into place. The MT analysis, launched by @Masse but also often used by me, says that the stock will soon be at 7€. But there are still challenging quarters ahead, and you can get in on the action cheaper after the Q4 report.
Yesterday’s dip utilized and Caverion additions made.
Surprisingly large volume lately, I’ve also been in it and bought more the day before yesterday. The quarterly report is on 7.2., which makes me wonder if the rise has happened at a disproportionately fast pace. It was overbought for quite a long time on a weekly level and is still quite close to it.
Caverion purchases have continued here and will continue next week if it drops further. There was indeed some calming of selling pressure on Friday, but Monday is a new day. It’s hard to say what caused the sharp rise/fall, but at least several funds had bought Caverion in December, as did insiders.
Now that there has been no profit warning, I believe Q4 has gone very well for the company. Although reaching the guidance after Q3 was theoretically possible, there was significant uncertainty associated with it. I would personally hope that the guidance is reached through profitability, which would thus rise to a good level for the company.
The stock market loves stories, and what could be better than a turnaround story.
It should be said that with a few companies, a negative earnings announcement (negari) has practically been given in connection with the earnings release, and this has left traumas. So one should not be too optimistic yet, before the numbers are visible 
What’s causing Caverion to drop? At least to my eyes, nothing negative has come up and the 2019 report was quite OK. What’s the problem?
In the morning, a block trade of 7,172,223 shares was executed at a price of €6.70, which is weighing down the share price.
I agree regarding 2019 and the outlook. If you consider that the share is now available at the same price as after the Q3 report, when there was still considerable uncertainty regarding achieving the guidance.
Ok, that explains today’s events. However, Caverion is precisely implementing its stated strategy, and Lehtoranta is among the top business leaders. It seems like it’s time for additional purchases; the share price should start with a nine rather than a seven.
It seems like there might be too much inventory on the sales side, and those skilled in technical analysis might also have something to say about this situation.
I’ve been watching this unfold ever since I started investing, and how quickly the turnaround was priced into the company. Now that the turnaround has happened, the value is decreasing.
An exciting moment.
Friday was tracksuit day, so there was still enough candy money in my jacket pocket to open a small position. We’ll follow with interest what’s to come.
Solero Luxco / Triton sold its stake
I have the same thoughts.
The quantity was so large that certainly some went to operators who are satisfied with marginal/sure profit. It might take a while for the share price to correct; while waiting, we’ll add more…