Avidly thread (Zeeland Family)

What do people here think of Avidly? (Soon to be former Zeeland Family)

My interest in Avidly started from my previous workplace, where we feverishly debated how to do modern marketing. The outcome was that one employee was simply assigned to the task, handed social media credentials without any particular experience or training. I found the situation somewhat absurd, as the social media landscape had already grown quite large at that time. Naturally, the first campaigns weren’t successful either, as all that was done were simple social media posts.

One should be able to do a bit more: interpret numbers, A/B test campaigns, set up various inbound systems, etc., etc., and of course, someone should still be producing graphics, videos, and websites. Companies could grow by having a smart and continuous online presence.

A criticism I often hear is that anyone can do this, and that competitors are growing much faster. In my opinion, they can’t with the same service offering. Competitors have focused on even smaller segments or are doing fairly traditional marketing.

My interpretation, therefore, is that Avidly is trying to operate in this modern marketing field, emphasizing HubSpot as an inbound system.

In my opinion, the current valuation feels really cheap, considering that marketing is moving towards continuous services and closer to the expertise of IT companies. On the other hand, we’ll see if companies understand how to purchase such extensive services.

The CEO’s departure and the resignations from the Turku office raised some doubt as to whether this is on solid ground at all, but if today’s video is to be believed (Zeeland Familyn HPJ Jari Tuovinen kommentoi yhtiön viimeisiä käänteitä - Inderes), it’s about a logical change. And I can’t say anything yet about the dual listing.

Currently, it’s the second smallest investment in my portfolio, and I’m waiting to hear what is said about future expansion.

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Two things bother me about the company:

  1. Why would someone want to outsource their own marketing when it’s such an essential part of a company’s soul? It’s about creating your own identity for outsiders. Maybe it’s because I work at an IT startup, so I see this differently than someone in a traditional corporation.

  2. Nowadays, marketing requires strong programming and analytics skills, meaning it competes against tough IT companies like Reaktor, Futurice, and Gofore. You also have to recruit the same skilled professionals that IT companies need, so Avidly is under a lot of pressure on that front too.

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That’s a good point, but as I described in the introduction, companies have to outsource at least part of their marketing anyway because they simply can’t produce everything themselves. Or at least, that’s what I’d assume for firms that don’t have an outrageously large marketing department.

In my opinion, software development should also be kept in-house, but all those outsourcers like Gofore, Siili, and partners are doing surprisingly well. I suppose it would be important for outsourcing to be done collaboratively and agilely so that the work doesn’t deviate from one’s own identity.

True. And surprisingly few recruitment advertisements have been open lately, so are they managing with the expertise they’ve acquired through acquisitions? The Swedish side is also a bit in the dark, but I could delve into what they do exactly. A quick look shows they also have some technical expertise and recruit, for example, integration and frontend experts. (Hmm, should I apply for a job there? :thinking:)

As a wild card, another thing that makes me wonder is how cooperation will get started after the merger. How well does this kind of cooperation succeed between Finns and Scandinavians in the media industry?

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My experience tells me that IT service firms with operations in different countries don’t succeed in creating significant synergy through integration. That is, country-specific silos are easily formed. So, Swedish client companies work with the Swedish unit, and the only time they interact is some Monday meeting with the Finnish unit where they go over what’s happening. The only synergy I can think of is if a unit is in a cheaper country, like some Eastern Bloc country, then Finnish and Swedish projects can be outsourced to a cheaper team there to boost margins.

Exactly, in my own company too :joy:

I tried to dig up some more info on Avidly, which consists of Katalysator, Doidea, and Inbound Norway, but I couldn’t find financial figures for Katalysator. Revenue in 2017: Doidea ~€1M and Inbound ~€200k. If Katalysator’s revenue has been on a similar scale, then Avidly has indeed experienced considerable growth recently. From Zeeland’s summer press release: “Avidly’s ARR in April 2018 was approximately 3.9 million euros, and the estimated ARR growth by April 2019 is approximately 3-5 million euros.”

I’ll await further information on the corporate restructuring.

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Looks like a new analysis came out today. Should I read it…

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Could Avidly also be joining that endless chain of companies where it’s “largely a trust case” or “let’s see next season”? :grin:

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This is starting to be fully priced in. I sold my shares and am looking for other targets with worse pricing errors. (I’m waiting for Inderes to recommend something nice :D)

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Alright, Capman is becoming the main owner and they plan to grow aggressively. Doesn’t sound bad, and the market reacted very positively. What are your thoughts here? My own position has already quietly grown to second place.

edit: Nokia is big, by the way… mostly bought at €4.30, but some at €5/share (from which I’ve fortunately received a couple of dividends…).

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It certainly sounds nice, and there’s still a chance to get in at the offering price :slight_smile: I’ll add to my position if the price doesn’t skyrocket.

It’s also interesting that Monty Widenius is becoming a shareholder; it’s great to see the potential here.

Today I was wondering if I should have bought everything below 6.25, but I settled for 2.5k at 5.48€. The position itself is already a decent size for my own portfolio. The previous ones cost 4.72, but the most expensive ones were probably around the time of the Yamaha deal at 7.xx… Could you tell me more about this Monty Widenius? I don’t know his background. Apparently, it’s positive, though. Taaler’s comments were quite encouraging. It’s good that they didn’t get it even cheaper, at least not yet.

Widenius is one of the founders of MySQL, which is still one of the world’s most important database software. MySQL was sold to Sun for a billion dollars ten years ago. A pretty important person in the history of the internet, in my opinion.

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Exactly. Without Monty (MySQL) and Torvalds (Linux), the LAMP (Linux, Apache, MySQL, and PHP) technology stack that dominated the web 10 years ago would have come to nothing, and Facebook, etc., would not have started with those technologies.

It’s another story whether Monty (or many technology experts, cf. Ylönen) is someone an investor should follow in investments (I would definitely follow him in technology matters). He was also involved in the controversial Web Of Trust (WOT Services) company, which managed to sell services to Facebook but later ran into various privacy crises.

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Well, now things are looking much better for us Avidly believers. Capman is a really tough nut in these games. They don’t put their millions just anywhere. Now, if Brother Gong also announces he’s buying, we’ll all put on our buying tracksuits before Avidly escapes into the clouds.

My strategy with Nordea has been to own it through Sampo.

I wonder if it’s worth taking a position through CapMan here too…

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It probably wasn’t a huge investment for Capman, unless that growth fund contains more of Capman’s own money. I do have both in my portfolio. Capman probably did transfer its investments to its own funds? Sauli would probably be able to comment on this? So, does Capman’s investment matter to Capman?

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Avidly is looking good now. There’s still time to get in, soon it’ll be too late.

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I guess it’s about my 2nd biggest investment in my portfolio. I also think you could raise the price at least to Capman’s 6.25 level. I don’t think I’ll add more myself :slight_smile:

About even with Talenom and Siltronic.

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Avidly’s ambitious growth target for 2024. A good old-fashioned 5-year plan! Hopefully, the share price will like it::tophat::tophat:

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A pretty good goal to quintuple in 5 years. So, it looked like it was 100 million by 2024 :). If it comes true, I will thank and bow deeply :slight_smile:

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