Administer - Digital financial and payroll administration

Here is a company report from Juha Kinnunen on Administer right after Q4. :slight_smile:

We reiterate our Add recommendation for Administer, but revise our target price to 2.5 euros (previously 2.8 €). The Q4 result was a clear disappointment and our 2025 forecasts decreased significantly, but the stock’s valuation multiples are reasonable despite this. In a good scenario, the market situation brightens as the year progresses, the company achieves organic growth, and earnings improve significantly. In a weak scenario, market headwinds continue and earnings remain far from the potential we see.

Quoted from the report:

Market outlook was cautiously optimistic as expected, and the market environment remains challenging according to the company. According to the company, the general expectation is that the Finnish economy will turn to a growth path in the coming years, but public sector savings and tax increases will slow down demand growth and raise prices at the beginning of 2025.

Our own assumption is that revenue growth will be tight in the first half of the year, and organically also negative. However, in the latter half of the year, we expect the market situation to improve and organic growth to turn positive. This growth accelerates significantly in our forecasts in 2026, through which profitability can finally rise. However, there is no visibility for next year yet, so forecasts should be treated with extreme caution.

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