On average, the H1 earnings forecasts were surprisingly far off the mark for such a stable business. However, when adjusted for non-recurring items, the forecasts were much more accurate. The share price reaction is not at all surprising in relation to the forecasts.
9 Likes
Almanakkakin has been writing about Admicom too 
I donât own Admicom, but I have been keeping an eye on it for a while. In principle, it is a high-margin, recurring revenue vertical software (construction industry ERP), with a debt-free balance sheet and a 30% EBITDA margin even when the entire sector is in a deep slump. On paper, it is exactly the kind of good company in a cyclical trough that I am looking for.
However, the Q2 report (or rather, H1) did not bring me any closer to a buying decision. Actually, every single thing that I would like to see turning around moved in the wrong direction during the first half of the year, or at best, stagnated. ARR started to decline, a profit warning was issued in June, and the Admicommunity shrank (staff were laid off).
23 Likes
Atte has published a new company report on Admicom regarding Q2
We reiterate our buy recommendation for Admicom and our target price of 40.0 euros. The Q2 report did not cause any material changes to our forecasts following the profit warning in June. We still believe that Admicomâs growth will pick up in the coming years as the construction marketâs turmoil eases, even if only slightly. Considering this, the stock is currently available for purchase at a very cheap valuation (2026e adj. EV/EBIT 9x).
Excerpt from the report:
After weak performance at the start of the year, promising signs have been seen on the sales side, with Q2 sales growing 20% from the previous quarter and 17% compared to the comparison period. This reflects the changes made after a weak start to the year in the sales team, incentives, and sales tactics. Success has also been achieved in improving cross-selling, and the majority of new deals include more than one Admicom product. Sales certainly need to pick up for the company to reach the ARR growth guidance lowered in June following a soft start to the year.
14 Likes
In my opinion, for Admicom, a turn for the better will start to show once there is a positive change in new customer sales to larger companies⊠my understanding is that successful deals are currently skewed toward smaller firms, as there hasnât been any significant growth in ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue). Although the stockâs valuation seems low historically, I believe the current valuation is justified by the lack of a clear outlook for a growth turnaround.
AI solutions will certainly help to some extent in the future, but I donât really see what kind of revolutionary changes could be made in that area that would allow them to sell additional features with excellent margins.
6 Likes
I recall that there has been discussion here about those using Admicom or whether large companies use Admicom.
I happened to notice that a Skanska job posting listed proficiency in Admicom Estimaan as a desired skill. So, they have at least gained some foothold at Skanska, which is, after all, a significant construction company in Finland.
14 Likes
Presumably this, but itâs been quite quiet since then. I donât know if itâs a question of a project management package, since Estimaatti is apparently a quantity and cost estimation software.
10 Likes
This information can be found directly on Admicomâs website under the âReferencesâ tab.
15 Likes
In addition to Skanska, there are other big names listed as references, at least SRV and Jatke.
Before anyone starts celebrating this, it is good to be aware that large construction companies are exceptionally fragmented organizations. Different business units can have very different operating procedures, and software licenses are often purchased only on a project-by-project basis. Of course, a group-wide ERP system must be consistent, and in the case of these big firms, it is certainly not Admicom.
Admittedly, a large and well-known construction company is a good reference for Admicom, but my point is that it doesnât necessarily generate more sales than a small construction firm where the software is fully implemented across the board.
9 Likes
Position: Member/Deputy member of the Board
Issuer: Admicom Oyj
Nature of the transaction: ACQUISITION
Detailed transaction information
(1): Volume: 1070 Unit price: 27.65 EUR
23 Likes
1650 pcs (if I calculated correctly) acquired by a person belonging to the managementâs close circle, shares bought in May-August: Admicom Oyj - Johdon liiketoimet | Kauppalehti
Notification obligation
Name: Juha-Pekka Kotilainen
Position: Person closely associated
(1): Person discharging managerial responsibilities in the issuer
Name: Henna Kotilainen
Position: Other senior management
9 Likes
Another interim report out from a Nordic competitor. No verbal mention of the Finnish market this time, but expanding Smartcraftâs market niche here is certainly very challenging.
13 Likes
Itâs not easy for Smart in Finland, and given that performance, Admicomâs revenue development for the beginning of the year (+2%) has been quite reasonable. Smartâs revenue in Q2 was down about -8% and H1 was down -11%. Of course, the scale of their business in Finland is significantly smaller than Admicomâs, so a direct comparison is not entirely straightforward.
Based on H1, I updated the charts for the Nordic trio (Admicom, Lemonsoft, and Smartcraft). The downward revenue growth trend is starting to level off (could we be at the bottom now?), and profitability remains stable. In the beginning of the year, each company has generated nice free cash flow relative to their EBITDA.
26 Likes
Didnât Admicom also have some billing model change that affected the revenue accrual in the early part of the year, meaning Admi would have actually done relatively even better?
Smartcraftâs CEO confirmed that valuations of M&A targets have been high due to market changes, but on the other hand, they are already seeing a slight narrowing in that trend.
Smartâs thread is followed so little that I believe it will interest Admicomâs owners more. I definitely recommend listening to the rest of the interview segment as well.
8 Likes