Admicom - Pioneer of construction industry digitalization

Isn’t this basically the same as management saying something along the lines of: “On average, we aren’t capable of creating value through acquisitions, so we only attempt them in cases where our own stock is clearly above fair value and we can use it to finance the acquisition” :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

If company management could actually genuinely assess the value of their own stock in all situations, this would indeed be the correct way to act opportunistically in capital allocation. Stock is expensive: fire up the printer and use it to buy companies. Stock is cheap: buy back as many shares as the market offers :smiley: A classic legend and prime example of this is, of course, Henry Singleton and Teledyne.

Anyway, for the majority of companies—and I believe for Admicom as well—the more important factor is whether acquisitions can in practice systematically create value with a return exceeding the cost of capital, regardless of the approach (synergies or a decentralized operating model, etc.).

Another somewhat peculiar point in the release:

Admicom’s original financial guidance was based on the assumption that reaching the upper end of the growth guidance would require either a faster recovery in the construction market or a small acquisition. Admicom does not rule out the possibility of an acquisition during 2026.

I don’t think it’s a good thing that management includes even these small acquisitions in their growth guidance. There is a risk that, at least subconsciously, they will try to rush a potential deal to completion just to avoid “failing” the given guidance. It would be even worse if this were tied to incentives like absolute revenue or earnings levels, but Admicom doesn’t seem to have those, based on what I tried to find.

Speaking of short-term guidance, it occurred to me: do they actually serve anyone? How much of management’s time is spent calculating what kind of guidance can be given to the market, and in Admicom’s case, even second-guessing the movements of the construction cycle? And then more time is wasted monitoring whether that guidance is being met, and in the worst case, drafting a list of excuses for why it wasn’t :smiley: This time could be spent on what actually matters for long-term value creation. Of course, it’s good to communicate long-term goals and strategy to investors, but a lot of energy is wasted on this kind of short-term noise by both listed companies and investors.

21 Likes

Let’s start with the fact that it is actually healthy for a company considering an acquisition to state that they are evaluating the valuation levels of potential targets. This is not entirely self-evident, so let’s welcome this approach.

But back to the point: surely it isn’t ruled out that the company could use its own shares as a form of financing for an acquisition, while simultaneously achieving a return on capital that exceeds a 10% cost of equity requirement? If the company’s own shares are expensive, why wouldn’t they be used at least partially for purchases, or why not organize a small share issue? If I recall correctly, the exceptional managers presented in Thorndike’s book The Outsiders used some rather clever ways of utilizing stock to create shareholder value. We are unlikely talking about the exact same thing here, but in theory, can’t value be created even through dilution if the acquisition target is high-quality and the price is attractive? Often dilution is a negative for the shareholder, but my point is that this isn’t necessarily a binary issue; there are many exceptions and gray areas along the way.

E: JP beat me to it :laughing:

15 Likes

Here are Roni’s comments regarding Admicom’s profit warning :slight_smile:

Admicom announced on Monday evening that it is lowering its growth guidance for the current year due to the prolonged challenging situation in the Finnish construction market. However, the company’s profitability guidance remained unchanged, which is a small relief. Although we were already at the lower end of the previous growth guidance, the comments in the release regarding sales outlooks and persistently high customer churn will likely cause slight negative forecast adjustments to our growth expectations.

15 Likes

I have now read through this entire thread over a couple of days. An interesting company and an amazing start to its journey on the stock exchange. But then came COVID and the construction slump. And the “entry of the Swedes,” as founder Häll puts it, likely had a major impact on the firm as well. Costs started to rise and the culture probably began to change too.

The early years also saw a broader shift in ownership. In addition to the Swedes, others joined: funds, pension companies, and foundations. The original owners cashed in on the fruits of their labor. Currently, Admicom has no “faced” owner (kasvollista omistajaa).

I’m not sure what to do. To buy or not? It’s easy to look at the past and hope for the same kind of rise as before COVID. But the company is different now, because so many executives have come and gone! There have been five CEOs since 2019. That is high turnover and speaks to a chaos in management. Another thing I’m considering is internationalization. It has been talked about for years, and the only thing achieved was a small acquisition in Estonia. Well, maybe it was a good move? I haven’t looked closely at what kind of synergy was gained from it.

A few years ago, a strategic choice was also made to focus solely on construction. Could they have chosen a specific area within the industrial sector in addition to that?

On the other hand, the firm has fared surprisingly well during this construction slump. I’ll keep following the development, even though the share price is at an all-time low.. Maybe.

29 Likes

As someone who follows the construction industry closely, I have been reflecting on Admicom’s opportunities for growth in the domestic market. Easoft, Fondion, and Evelia are direct competitors that have gained significant market share in recent years. In addition to these, there is a slew of other companies operating in the sector, but Easoft and Fondion are the clearest threats from Admicom’s perspective.

Easoft is also a Jyväskylä-based software company, which was acquired by the Danish company EG at the end of '24. EG also owns Jydacom, which is the enterprise resource planning (ERP) system used by the largest construction companies. Admicom is unable to displace Jydacom’s position as the software provider for the largest construction firms, and Easoft competes in the same customer segment against Admicom’s Ultima.

Fondion, on the other hand, is a relatively new player in the field, with former Admicom employees among its founders. Employees responsible for the technical side jumped from Admicom to Fondion, so one could assume there are some similarities in the software itself. In the most recent financial year, they achieved two million in revenue growth, also turning the bottom line positive.

What causes problems for Admicom in the competition against the aforementioned and other construction software is the “all-in-one” nature of the software suite. When choosing Ultima, a company’s current accountant is forced to switch their financial management software to Ultima, or the company must switch accounting firms entirely to one that also uses Ultima. Competitors, conversely, work through integrations with the major financial management software packages. This creates hurdles, as in the most difficult cases, an entrepreneur would have to be persuaded to change their accounting firm as well when switching their ERP.

Growth is also limited by entrepreneurs’ reluctance to switch software. Digitalization in the construction industry is at such a low level that once an entrepreneur adopts a program to facilitate daily operations, it will likely remain in use for a very long time. Since most small construction and building services companies only need specific features that are found in almost all software, it is difficult to justify the need for a software change to an entrepreneur. Switching would mean an onboarding process for both the entrepreneur and the employees. Learning a new program alongside work and the challenges it brings is a real issue, especially for slightly older entrepreneurs in the field.

Functionality is another area where competitors have been catching up to Admicom in recent years. For example, Fondion has a quantity takeoff tool directly integrated into its main software. The functionalities promised for Admicom’s quantity takeoff tool, Quantima—which should have arrived a year ago—are still missing, including integrations with their own programs Ultima and the cost estimation tool Estima.

Admicom has seen a lot of turnover in recent years, which has provided opportunities for former Admicom employees in other companies in the industry. In addition to those behind Fondion mentioned earlier, former CFO Petri Aho is the CEO of competitor Evelia, and Joni Haapamäki, who held various sales roles and served as Business Unit Director, moved to become the CEO of Aceve (formerly known as Pajadata).

As a concluding remark, I would say Admicom’s products are good. Ultima is very extensive in its functionality, but a large part of those features are useful to only a small fraction of entrepreneurs in the field. The construction industry will continue to digitalize, but the competitive landscape has completely changed compared to, for example, the beginning of the decade.

81 Likes

Admicom held a pre-silent call today, and here is the recording:

19 Likes

Atte has published a new company report on Admicom following the profit warning and the pre-silent period call. :slight_smile:

We reiterate our Buy recommendation for Admicom and lower our target price to EUR 40.0 (prev. EUR 45.0). Admicom issued a profit warning just over a week ago, leading us to revise our earnings forecasts for the coming years downwards by approximately 3-5%. Admicom’s share price has fallen more than this in response to the profit warning, and the valuation (2026e adj. EV/EBIT 10x) has dropped even lower. We still believe the company’s growth will pick up in the coming years and that the stock offers a very good expected return as this materializes.

9 Likes

Stock options seem to be in high demand, and no wonder. I would probably accept them too.
Today, 46,374 shares have been reported (2026A stock options). Unit price: 0 EUR.
At the current share price of €25.9, that amount is worth about €1.2M. Not a bad way to head into the Midsummer holidays.
Since the company has been doing well, what could be better than sharing the fruits of labor with retail investors. The amount is about 55X the size of the model portfolio’s position.

11 Likes

Options don’t quite work that way, though. I mean, they didn’t just hand out some 1.2 million euro pot to the management team today for midsummer partying. Those shares still need to be subscribed, and if the stock price continues its recent nosedive toward zero, the management won’t see a single cent from these.

8 Likes

Hi to the Admicom thread and a heads-up for @Atte_Riikola: There’s something odd in the sensitivity analysis of the DCF calculation in the latest Admicom report. The DCF currently gives a value of €52.7 with an 8.6% WACC, but the sensitivity analysis shows a value of €56.2 for the corresponding WACC :thinking:

Perhaps I could slip in a detailed question for you here, Atte: do you genuinely see that in the current situation, the WACC for Admicom is in the right ballpark? If you look at the share price at least, one could argue that the market completely disagrees with this assumption. On the other hand, at the current price (around €25.5), the valuation gap to the resulting DCF value has widened to the point where the upside is over 100%. I’m mainly pointing this out because even if you look at Inderes’ entire coverage universe, such valuation gaps between the DCF model and the share price are rare. So, basically, could a WACC of <9% in this context give a distorted picture of the stock’s upside, assuming the forecasts are even somewhat in the right ballpark (the uncertainty of the forecasts should, of course, also be reflected in the WACC?)

30 Likes

Good catch! It looks like there’s some glitch in the model regarding those sensitivity calculations; for some reason, they aren’t updating… I’ll have to investigate what’s causing it. That €52.7 is the “correct figure.”

Even if you were to raise Admicom’s WACC to just over 10%, the DCF value based on current forecasts wouldn’t go anywhere near the current share price (an 11% WACC would be €38). Therefore, the market is clearly pricing in weaker earnings development than the model’s assumptions. It has been noted in the analyses as well that there are hardly any growth expectations priced into the stock anymore.

35 Likes

There have been some good comments here over the past year regarding domestic competitors.

There is market skepticism regarding the actual business value (this applies to SaaS companies globally as well).

The company’s share buyback program.

The company’s briefing on business value in the face of the AI disruption.

Additionally, the company’s latest profit warning regarding the headwinds.

It seems like we are starting to have a pretty delicious Inderes Roast served on a silver platter.

7 Likes

I just came across this podcast where Admicom’s CEO discusses the use of AI in the construction industry. I haven’t listened to the episode myself yet, but I thought I’d share it here right away:

34 Likes

Here are Atte’s pre-match thoughts as Admicom reports its Q2 results on Wednesday, July 8th :slight_smile:

In June, the company lowered its growth guidance for the current year due to the continued weakness in the Finnish construction market, and we expect Q2 revenue to have remained nearly flat. The reported result will be burdened by one-off items recorded from the change negotiations that concluded in May, but we expect adjusted profitability to have remained at a good level, nearly on par with the comparison period. Admicom’s share price has fallen to a historically low level, which we currently view as a buying opportunity.

8 Likes

Admicom has once again canceled some of its shares, although the previously distributed stock options will naturally work in the opposite direction later on. Otherwise, this certainly looks quite nice, with the number of shares having decreased by approximately 2% in a short period: Admicom mitätöi takaisinostettuja osakkeita | Kauppalehti

Admicom Oyj (“Admicom” or the “company”) has today canceled 47,249 of its own shares in accordance with a decision made by the Board of Directors of Admicom Oyj. The number of shares to be canceled represents 1.0% of the total number of shares and votes in the company.

Following the cancellation, the total number of Admicom Oyj shares is 4,892,034.

17 Likes

By the way, this was actually an interesting discussion on the digitalization of the construction industry, so I recommend it, even though it covered fairly basic topics. The construction industry in general is still quite in its early stages regarding digitalization.

Btw. According to the CEO, Admincon offers an opportunity for customers who want to develop various AI agents/tools within Admincon’s service system. Ultimately, I don’t see AI development itself as a major risk for this type of company, but rather as an opportunity. The situation in the construction sector will surely start to improve at some point as well. The only thing I cannot assess is whether there are relevant competitors in the field who could eat into market share and slow down growth.

19 Likes

I have considered Leisti a (rarely) sensible CEO when it comes to AI matters, and this podcast episode gives me no reason to change that opinion.

The figures regarding the potential cost savings in the sector made me see the industry’s high bankruptcy numbers in a new light. If the pioneers are reaping the benefits presented in the episode, the only consequence can be the withering away of weaker competitors and the rapid growth of the more agile ones. There is certainly room in the construction market for new entrepreneurs who aren’t burdened by the mental baggage of the past, and it can be an advantage not to have been trained in the “old school” way, cementing attitudes into the “this is how it’s always been done” mold.

The best tool would actually be one that doesn’t carry an “AI” label, which provides an opportunity for full-on resistance (braking). As stated in the episode, it is not a binary choice of “100 percent AI” or nothing; the figure fluctuates somewhere in between depending on the task and the problem. Undoubtedly, the maturity of a company’s processes also affects the kind of help AI can provide. AI is not ketchup that you can just squirt onto a thick layer of bad cooking without a second thought to cover it up. Garbage in, garbage out.

16 Likes

H1 report coming up – share your expectations!

So far, 13 investors have submitted their estimates ahead of the report. The Pinpoint Consensus currently points to slightly stronger results than the analyst consensus from FactSet.

Submit your own estimate for Net Sales and EBIT to compare your view with others here

4 Likes

Admicom kicked off the earnings season on the Helsinki Stock Exchange. Below are the robo-comments.

13 Likes

Here are the analyst’s comments:

The webcast starts at 10:00 AM:

9 Likes