If expectations can be estimated based on yesterday’s closing price (41.7 SEK), they were likely very significantly higher than the actual outcome.
In my modeling, the quarterly VWAP share price (Volume weighted average price) has recently hit the linear curve f(x) = 2.15 * x - 24.51 fairly well, where x is the weighted average revenue of the two most recent quarters, such that the latest quarter is weighted 85% and the second latest 15%.
Q2/23 revenue was 24.555 MSEK. Thus x = 0.85 * 24.555 + 0.15 * 30.4 = 25.43175. f(25.43175) = 2.15 * 25.43175 - 24.51 = 30.2. If the upcoming (Q3) quarter’s VWAP share price were 30.2, it would fall approximately on the model’s linear trendline. However, historically, when x has been around 25, the quarterly VWAP has been clearly below the trendline. For example, in quarter 22/Q2 (x,y) = (25.21, 24.69) (See the modeling table and graph).
It is worth noting that the modeling is straightforward and simplified, and is based solely on revenue and the volume-weighted average share price. It does not take future outlooks into account at all, for instance.
I started following and researching the stock on June 20th. However, I have not bought the stock so far. If the share price were to fall closer to the 20 SEK level, and if the company were to issue announcements regarding potential contracts with Telia, I might analyze the stock in more detail. For now, I am just keeping it on my watchlist.