Falls with other tech stocks.
€2.50
2 Likes
Remedy is an interesting company. The company’s success rests on many pillars, and in addition, subcontracting to other industry players reduces risk. In my opinion, the company has always been the most interesting gaming company (in Finland) precisely from the perspective of risk management. That is, the risk/potential return ratio is in order, and attention is also paid to this in the company. My guess is that with a little luck and especially good know-how, the share price will be at least 21 euros at the end of the year, and most likely this is an underestimate. I personally believe in Remedy and am increasing my position.
1 Like
Control will be at the beginning of Q4, stock price on 31.12.2019: 10.20
The company will be delisted from the stock exchange. Shareholders will receive €8.1.
€13.37
1 Like
7.86
€8.8 
I’m a bit reluctant to participate in this guessing game, as the potential price range of the stock by the end of the year is so wide that I don’t feel capable of predicting a single precise number. The possible range, influenced by both global economic developments and Remedy’s success with its games, could be anywhere between €4-20, and I believe both extremes are equally likely. ..However, since this is a lighthearted competition and the potential prize put a glint in my eye (Inderes promotional product, or maybe you could even persuade Remedy to give away a branded backpack/bag? You can’t even buy those with money..), I guess I can join this dart game.
Before making my guess, I’ll share my thoughts behind it. (I won’t go through all aspects, just a few selected ones.)
The stock has been a bit down lately, and now with the Crossfire HD trailer, the price has risen slightly again, and the immediate risk of a downturn is over. In the trailer’s description text, it says in one place: “..A new trailer has been released promoting the Story Mode..”, and in another description: “.. promotes the multiplayer modes and the Story Mode (PVE)..” (Both descriptions taken from Remedy’s website.)
Due to the difference in descriptions, I can’t be sure how much of the trailer is multiplayer footage and how much is story mode, which makes it a bit difficult to assess the quality of Remedy’s contribution. The whole clip looks pretty similar in terms of graphics (which I guess is the intention) and it looks great, so I can’t even complain (except that such a teaser with quick cuts doesn’t really tell anything about the game itself but does arouse interest.) A big plus, however, is that the footage produced with Northlight doesn’t stand out too clearly in that clip, which gives hope that it’s possible, if necessary, to make game footage that looks distinctly different from Quantum Break and Control, where clear similarities are noticeable. (If players get tired of games that look too similar, then if necessary, a slightly different end result can be achieved in future games.) It’s safest to assume that the snowy images are Remedy material, based on which I draw my own estimates.
If the price reacts as it has to the CF trailer, which doesn’t yet show “anything”, then I believe the price will rise to €9-10 when new game footage is released and the release date of Control begins to approach. In the future, Metacritic reviews will greatly affect the stock price, and depending on the scores, the stock could be €8-15. Initial sales figures may cause price fluctuations, but with Metacritic reviews as a basis, there will likely not be as much volatility as Meta reviews can cause. However, I believe total sales will exceed Inderes’ estimate of 1.5 million, and I don’t believe Control’s release will be delayed beyond this year.
At the same time, as the predictability of the global economy weakens, it is possible that the general market downturn will continue. This may initially also be reflected in Remedy’s stock, but once more game footage and a release date for Control are available, I believe Remedy will be quite defensive against market volatility in the future. Remedy’s stock staying afloat while the rest of the market potentially declines could even bring in more investors, as money is released from elsewhere and people still want to invest it in something with hope for value appreciation (or at least preservation.)
The year-end price will, of course, be affected not only by sales but also by release dates and what kind of hype marketing generates. Possibly also news about the Alan Wake TV series and whether anything about the so-called third project or Vanguard will be revealed (maybe E3 2019?). After all these uncertainties, I managed to narrow the original range to €11-15, which I would not want to guess more precisely. Be that as it may, I cannot win this competition if I do not give an exact estimate, but for now I will stick to this range and not refine it.
I may also change my estimate as long as the thread is open.
4 Likes
Exactly 10€
These are entertainment. And it’s good to have some entertainment once in a while.
Remedy will pay 9.68 euros at the turn of the year. Exactly.
19.5, my random number generator was in an optimistic mood.
1 Like
€9.25
€10.12
My numbered chicken bones reveal €23.21
3 Likes
€11.2
Here is a summary of the usernames and predictions, in order of magnitude. Quite interesting data.
I would ask @Verneri_Pulkkinen or @Yu_Gong to lock the thread at 12:00 and make a note somewhere that after next Christmas, we will start digging this thread back up 
Thanks to everyone who made a prediction!
Edit: Updated list below (FINAL)
3 Likes
There’s still time, so I’ll participate with a guess produced by Bayesian inference:
€12.79 
I found a bit of playfulness in myself at the last minute, so I’ll boldly guess the upper end of my range: exactly €15.00
One more spoon in the pot, as I got reliable information about the upcoming course. So, the closing price is €11.48.
17.2